Could Saddam Attack First?

[wig]

Originally posted by JerryW@Nov 18 2002, 01:50 PM
the psychological part is the hardest part of trading.

Hi Jerry,

Yes, this is something that we have discussed many times before at Oprano. I firmly believe that execution is the only thing that will make you a consistent winner.

I do not have the space to explain my cycle theories. I tried briefly to explain it to Colin via email and you can see where that has gone.

[wig]

Originally posted by Colin@Nov 18 2002, 01:57 PM
How would you even begin to determine that? How do you chart middle-eastern events and then determine that an underlying pattern exists and will consistently repeat? Which middle eastern events and dates are part of this cycle you mention and how do you predict the next one?

Why should such patterns exist for something as vague and humanly defined as "events in the middle east"?

or are you saying you are predicting a movement in the market and speculating that the cause of that would be a middle-eastern event. That would still be the same thing though. You would be able to demonstrate that there is a clear pattern to historical events and that it can be used to predict the future.

Witchcraft!

Colin,

I believe in cycles. I believe that history repeats itself. I believe that cycles are a dynamic, non-linear phenomenon.

To reiterate from my email to you.... "Here is how a perform my analysis for TIME. I use many numbers that are found in nature or have otherwise proven valuable to life (markets). Here are a most of them.... Fibonacci numbers, Gann numbers, Biblical numbers and the summation of these numbers. Also, the multiples and fractions of these numbers. Basically, what I do is stare at the charts and find patterns of TIME between important turning points. I use my base numbers to extrapolate dates in the future and I look for synergy to determine probable points in the future where psychology may change."

There is no "clear" pattern. There is no secret formula. Cycles do not consistently repeat in the same fashion. If they did, life would be a circle and I view it as more of a spiral.

I have simply come to the realization that the repetition (measured by the numbers I use) is too much of an occurence to be mere coincidence.

Therefore, I make assumptions based on probabilities of cycles repeating. Not on the certainty of a cycle repeating. I look for the convergence of many cycles at the same place in future time.

I also do the same thing with price action. Look for probabilities based on repetition. I then combine the two to look for synergy... Or as Gann would say... "where price and time coincide".

I'm sorry if you think it is witchcraft or if you cannot otherwise understand my methodologies. It works for me and I make money using it. But, as we have discussed, as Serge and I have discussed and as Jerry and I have just discussed, it is execution that is the key.

I did not always make money in the markets and have paid a lot of tuition. My ability to make money in the latter part of my 17 years of trading is mostly a part of my execution and not my perception.

It is still easier to predict markets than it is to make money.

[Dianna Vesta]

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