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Old 11-18-2004   #1
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You are on TV show,
there are 3 doors,
behind 2 of them there is a goat,
behind one is new BMW

you opened the door and the host opens another door to show you it has a goat behind it. The host offers you to change your mind and pick up the other unopened door.

Question:
do you have
1) better chances by opening the other door?
2) worse chances by opening the other door
3) the same chances by opening the other door?

...and why?
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Old 11-18-2004   #2
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there are two answers to this problem.

ifit is a trick question, the fact that you said "a goat" would imply one goat, which if already revealed would mean your options are better. but if there was a goat behind the door you opened (not specified) then your odds would be 100% that the third door would hold a BMW, since both goats would be revealed.

so that argument is all semantics.

Say the door you opened was goatless, then it comes down to odds.

the mathematical approach is you started with 66% odds of failure to start. eliminating one goat would mean your odds drop to 50% of failure, or a coin flip.

at least thats my take
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Old 11-18-2004   #3
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gotta be my bad English...

there are goats behind 2 out of 3 doors

you haven't opened the door,
you only indicated the door which you would like to open.

sorry for misunderstanding the first time around
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Old 11-18-2004   #4
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Quote:
Originally posted by grimm@Nov 18 2004, 07:19 AM

the mathematical approach is you started with 66% odds of failure to start. eliminating one goat would mean your odds drop to 50% of failure, or a coin flip.

at least thats my take
bzzz...wrong!
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Old 11-18-2004   #5
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oh shit i missed it completely.... one sec.

there is nothing specifying that a goat cannot be behind the same door as a goat.

so the odds of failure are 5/6 for the goat with the BMW and 1/3 with the goat and BMW separate. so its a combination of odds problem

now the host eliminates one out of each... since obviously the goat would not be in the door he opened, or the contetant would have already won. and the same goes for the door the contestant opened. so there is one door left with 3 possibilities. a goat, a BMW, or a goat and a BMWso it is 1/3 or 33%,much better odds.



fucking trick questions
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Old 11-18-2004   #6
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Quote:
Originally posted by grimm@Nov 18 2004, 04:25 AM
oh shit i missed it completely.... one sec.

there is nothing specifying that a goat cannot be behind the same door as a goat.

so the odds of failure are 5/6 for the goat with the BMW and 1/3 with the goat and BMW separate. so its a combination of odds problem

now the host eliminates one out of each... since obviously the goat would not be in the door he opened, or the contetant would have already won. and the same goes for the door the contestant opened. so there is one door left with 3 possibilities. a goat, a BMW, or a goat and a BMWso it is 1/3 or 33%,much better odds.



fucking trick questions
goat cannot be behind the same door as another goat, or the BMW, but that doest change the outcome. the revealing of the goat took us to 1/3 anyway, if and only if there were two goats in there, her odds would go to 100% choice as she had seen both goats and an empty door, so that doesnt matter.

anyway her odds are better
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Old 11-18-2004   #7
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Quote:
Originally posted by Serge_Oprano@Nov 18 2004, 04:10 AM
You are on TV show,
there are 3 doors,
behind 2 of them there is a goat,
behind one is new BMW

you opened the door and the host opens another door to show you it has a goat behind it. The host offers you to change your mind and pick up the other unopened door.

Question:
do you have
1) better chances by opening the other door?
2) worse chances by opening the other door
3) the same chances by opening the other door?

...and why?
You have an equal chance by opting to open the other door.

You have a 66% chance of picking a goat on the first choice, the host then opens a door revealing a goat, cutting that down to a 66% chance of one of the doors containing a goat which, in actuality turns out to be a 50% chance you either have the goat or the BMW.
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Old 11-18-2004   #8
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Grimm,
I'll make it VERY simple:

door #1 has goat behind it,
door #2 has goat behind it,
door #3 has BMW behind it.
THIS you know.
What you don't know is:
which door is which.

and you did NOT open the door on the first try,
you only indicated which door you want to be opened,
IOW,
you don't know what's behind the door you have chosen!
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Old 11-18-2004   #9
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Quote:
Originally posted by Lee+Nov 18 2004, 04:29 AM-->
QUOTE (Lee @ Nov 18 2004, 04:29 AM)
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Old 11-18-2004   #10
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Quote:
Originally posted by grimm+Nov 18 2004, 04:31 AM-->
QUOTE (grimm @ Nov 18 2004, 04:31 AM)
Quote:
Originally posted by Lee@Nov 18 2004, 04:29 AM
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Old 11-18-2004   #11
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and its all moot if the door the contestant opens contains a BMW
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Old 11-18-2004   #12
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Quote:
Originally posted by Lee+Nov 18 2004, 07:29 AM-->
QUOTE (Lee @ Nov 18 2004, 07:29 AM)
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Old 11-18-2004   #13
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Quote:
Originally posted by grimm@Nov 18 2004, 07:31 AM
and its all moot if the door the contestant opens contains a BMW
grimm,
pay fucking attention,
contestant doesn't open shit!
he only INDICATES what he wants to be opened.
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Old 11-18-2004   #14
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Sorry thought i said you had an equal chance by opening the other door.

There are only 2 doors left, one of them contains a car.. the other doesnt
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Old 11-18-2004   #15
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Quote:
Originally posted by Lee+Nov 18 2004, 07:31 AM-->
QUOTE (Lee @ Nov 18 2004, 07:31 AM)
Quote:
Originally posted by grimm@Nov 18 2004, 04:31 AM
Old 11-18-2004   #16
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Actually you know what..

Thinking about it logically..

No matter what door you open you have a better chance..

Youll either win a car or not.. which is more than you have right now prior to the door being opened

Now what do i win? LOL
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Old 11-18-2004   #17
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Quote:
Originally posted by Lee@Nov 18 2004, 07:33 AM
Sorry thought i said you had an equal chance by opening the other door.

There are only 2 doors left, one of them contains a car.. the other doesnt
you did, but
Quote:
Question:
do you have
1) better chances by opening the other door?
2) worse chances by opening the other door
3) the same chances by opening the other door?
#3, the answer you gave, is INCORRECT answer
;-))))
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Old 11-18-2004   #18
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Quote:
Originally posted by Serge_Oprano@Nov 18 2004, 04:35 AM
#3, the answer you gave, is INCORRECT answer
;-))))
Well shit you could have broken it to me easier than that
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Old 11-18-2004   #19
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Quote:
Originally posted by Lee@Nov 18 2004, 07:35 AM
Actually you know what..

Thinking about it logically..

No matter what door you open you have a better chance..

Youll either win a car or not.. which is more than you have right now prior to the door being opened

Now what do i win? LOL
you win NADA, zilch, fat ZERO....

all you have to do to win is to pick up the correct answer from
Quote:
Question:
do you have
1) better chances by opening the other door?
2) worse chances by opening the other door
3) the same chances by opening the other door?
and give the reasoning WHY
;-)
you now have only 2! correct answers left to chose from
;-)))
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Old 11-18-2004   #20
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Quote:
Originally posted by Serge_Oprano@Nov 18 2004, 04:29 AM
Grimm,
I'll make it VERY simple:

door #1 has goat behind it,
door #2 has goat behind it,
door #3 has BMW behind it.
THIS you know.
What you don't know is:
which door is which.

and you did NOT open the door on the first try,
you only indicated which door you want to be opened,
IOW,
you don't know what's behind the door you have chosen!
oh ok, so she did not open the door, just indicated.

this is boolean algebra.

1 goat

1 BMW

2 Doors

initially she had a 1/3 shot. 66% rate of failure.

doh this is easy

her shot remains the same. nothing has changed. She still has 3 doors, two goats, one behind each door. and a BMW behind the third. so instead of it being a 66% rate of failure by remaining the same. so she keeps her pick, er odds of failure reduce to 50%. 1/2 instead of 1/3. all the host did was show 1/3 of her failure options.\

is that correct?
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Old 11-18-2004   #21
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Quote:
Originally posted by grimm+Nov 18 2004, 04:38 AM-->
QUOTE (grimm @ Nov 18 2004, 04:38 AM)
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Old 11-18-2004   #22
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Originally posted by grimm+Nov 18 2004, 07:38 AM-->
QUOTE (grimm @ Nov 18 2004, 07:38 AM)
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Old 11-18-2004   #23
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shit someone beat me to it, but i explained my reasoning

when i get logic problems, i always shoot fr the simplest answer. if i cannot find a simple answer, my analytical side kicks in and i narrow it down to the simplest answer. this whole board was lucky i wasnt boiling it down to the LCD of every possibility
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Old 11-18-2004   #24
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Quote:
Originally posted by Lee+Nov 18 2004, 07:40 AM-->
QUOTE (Lee @ Nov 18 2004, 07:40 AM)
Old 11-18-2004   #25
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Quote:
Originally posted by Serge_Oprano+Nov 18 2004, 04:40 AM-->
QUOTE (Serge_Oprano @ Nov 18 2004, 04:40 AM)
Quote:
Originally posted by grimm@Nov 18 2004, 07:38 AM
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Old 11-18-2004   #26
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Quote:
Originally posted by grimm@Nov 18 2004, 07:41 AM
shit someone beat me to it, but i explained my reasoning

when i get logic problems, i always shoot fr the simplest answer. if i cannot find a simple answer, my analytical side kicks in and i narrow it down to the simplest answer. this whole board was lucky i wasnt boiling it down to the LCD of every possibility
yes, you BOTH beat each other to..INCORRECT CONCLUSION
;-))))
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Old 11-18-2004   #27
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yes i overthunk it
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Old 11-18-2004   #28
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and overcomplicated it
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Old 11-18-2004   #29
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Quote:
Originally posted by grimm+Nov 18 2004, 07:42 AM-->
QUOTE (grimm @ Nov 18 2004, 07:42 AM)
Quote:
Originally posted by Serge_Oprano@Nov 18 2004, 04:40 AM
Old 11-18-2004   #30
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Quote:
Originally posted by grimm@Nov 18 2004, 04:19 AM


Say the door you opened was goatless, then it comes down to odds.

the mathematical approach is you started with 66% odds of failure to start. eliminating one goat would mean your odds drop to 50% of failure, or a coin flip.

at least thats my take
serge, my first answer was sorta right, read the second paragraph if this was a logic not a trick question

so technically, i got it right the first time, then outhtought myself into the wrong answer by overcomplicating it, then thought back to the right answer

))))
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Old 11-18-2004   #31
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anybody cares to come up with plausable explanation WHY it's ALWAYS pays to chose the other door, after the host opened one of them?
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Old 11-18-2004   #32
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Haha i did the same thing Grimm went from 66%-50% but was concentrating on the wrong thing lol

Ah well it was a stupid question anyway and neither of won a new BMW or a goat
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Old 11-18-2004   #33
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Quote:
Originally posted by grimm+Nov 18 2004, 07:47 AM-->
QUOTE (grimm @ Nov 18 2004, 07:47 AM)
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Old 11-18-2004   #34
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Quote:
Originally posted by Serge_Oprano+Nov 18 2004, 04:45 AM-->
QUOTE (Serge_Oprano @ Nov 18 2004, 04:45 AM)
Quote:
Originally posted by grimm@Nov 18 2004, 07:42 AM
Quote:
Originally posted by Serge_Oprano@Nov 18 2004, 04:40 AM
Quote:
Originally posted by grimm@Nov 18 2004, 07:38 AM
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Old 11-18-2004   #35
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Quote:
Originally posted by grimm@Nov 18 2004, 07:50 AM


how is one any less right than 3 if the end result is the same?
very simple,
as I posted in my previous post,
the chances of winni9ng the car by switching your original choice is 66%,
not 50!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Old 11-18-2004   #36
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Quote:
Originally posted by Serge_Oprano+Nov 18 2004, 04:50 AM-->
QUOTE (Serge_Oprano @ Nov 18 2004, 04:50 AM)
Quote:
Originally posted by grimm@Nov 18 2004, 07:47 AM
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Old 11-18-2004   #37
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Quote:
Originally posted by Lee+Nov 18 2004, 07:52 AM-->
QUOTE (Lee @ Nov 18 2004, 07:52 AM)
Quote:
Originally posted by Serge_Oprano@Nov 18 2004, 04:50 AM
Old 11-18-2004   #38
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Quote:
Originally posted by Serge_Oprano@Nov 18 2004, 04:54 AM
Lee,
as I already explained to grimm 3 times only,
you have NOT opened the door,
you ONLY INDICATED which door you want to be opened.
I get that i only indicated but if one of the 3 doors has already been opened that only leaves 2 doors to open.

With 2 possible scenarios..

Door 1 - Goat
Door 2 - Car

I think im gonna head to bed and figure this out when i wake up again lol
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Old 11-18-2004   #39
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Quote:
Originally posted by Serge_Oprano@Nov 18 2004, 04:50 AM
grimm,
your answer AND logic was incorrect and STILL is incorrect, because your chances of picking up the car by switching your original decission is NOT 50%...
it's 66%!!! probability to pick the car instead of goat when you switch!
;-))))
this makes no sense. your probability of picking the goat would not stay the same.

instead of 1/3 doors, you have elimiated 1 door, making the new choice 1/2, or 50/50.


You are correct this far.from a mathematical perspective, it would remain constant, since it is still the original problem we are trying to solve. there could be three open doors, and the odds would still be 1/3 for the BMW.

but when you added a personal choice to it,it became a human Logic problem, and logic dictates fluid thinking, and when the third door was open, the logic problem changed. obviously the contestant seeing the goat, would shift the way she thought about the problem. She would not see it as 1/3 she would see it as 1/2 with one door being eliminated. the calculator would see it as 1/3
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Old 11-18-2004   #40
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Old 11-18-2004   #41
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Old 11-18-2004   #42
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Old 11-18-2004   #43
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..and if you are still not convinced...
imagine 100! doors instead of 3
(logic for 100 doors is the SAME as for 3 or 3,000,000 doors)

you indicated one door and the host opened 98 doors and...
would you assume that you picked the car in 1:100 chance or the other one closed is where BMW is?
;-))))
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Old 11-18-2004   #44
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Oh yeah and.. im stealing this question to ask on GWW lol
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Old 11-18-2004   #45
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Quote:
Originally posted by Serge_Oprano+Nov 18 2004, 04:52 AM-->
QUOTE (Serge_Oprano @ Nov 18 2004, 04:52 AM)
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Old 11-18-2004   #46
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yes i see where my logic failed, i forgot the #1 rule of logic problems, make the set bigger than it is, much easier to see lines on a football field than sistine chapel on the head of a pin.
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Old 11-18-2004   #47
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« Previous Thread | Next Thread »

QUOTE (grimm @ Nov 18 2004, 08:08 AM)
Quote:
Originally posted by Serge_Oprano@Nov 18 2004, 04:52 AM
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Old 11-18-2004   #48
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and yep, you could have snaked 100 bucks off of me there my mind works too fast at times.. sometimes the answer is right in front of you
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Old 11-18-2004   #49
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Quote:
Originally posted by grimm@Nov 18 2004, 08:09 AM
yes i see where my logic failed, i forgot the #1 rule of logic problems, make the set bigger than it is, much easier to see lines on a football field than sistine chapel on the head of a pin.
hahahah,
good analogy but..
you WERE leaning in the right direction, by bringing 10 doors instead of 3 example
;-)))
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Old 11-18-2004   #50
Winetalk.com
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Quote:
Originally posted by Lee@Nov 18 2004, 08:07 AM
Oh yeah and.. im stealing this question to ask on GWW lol
pay us royalties, mofo!!!!
;-))))
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