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Old 03-10-2004   #1
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here is an interesting way to play it in the mutual fund which shorts US Bonds:
ryjcx is the symbol.

I put a few $$ into it today, I LOVE buying shit on the bottom...and which explains why I have a few "fallen elevators" in my basement
;-)))
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Old 03-10-2004   #2
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my rationale for shorting treasures..

March is an end of the fiscal year in Japan,
Japanese buying US Tresuares like there is no tomorrow, to support US dollar vs Yen, thus helping exporters to repatriate Yens back to Japan.
This is BUBLE and bubble gonna burst in April.

does it make sense, trading gurus?
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Old 03-10-2004   #3
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teach me bond and option trading serge

if you doubt my credentials, see my prediction that qenc would gain 10 percent in 4 days before sliding back down


AND I've owned raytheon at 27-28 on several occasions
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Old 03-10-2004   #4
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Quote:
Originally posted by pushpills@Mar 10 2004, 05:49 PM
teach me bond and option trading serge

if you doubt my credentials, see my prediction that qenc would gain 10 percent in 4 days before sliding back down


AND I've owned raytheon at 27-28 on several occasions
Grogan,
teaching part is easy, controling emotions, light speed executions and...never look back mentality,
mastering that took me years and zillions of dollars and I am STILL only marginally better than I was 20 years ago
;-)))
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Old 03-10-2004   #5
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I'm no trading guru, but both newsletters I read say rates are close to bottoming and interest rates on the 10 and 30 year treasuries will go up over the next month or so....



Last edited by MattK at Mar 10 2004, 02:57 PM
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Old 03-10-2004   #6
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Quote:
Originally posted by Serge_Oprano+Mar 10 2004, 02:56 PM-->
QUOTE (Serge_Oprano @ Mar 10 2004, 02:56 PM)
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Old 03-10-2004   #7
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Quote:
Originally posted by pushpills+Mar 10 2004, 05:57 PM-->
QUOTE (pushpills @ Mar 10 2004, 05:57 PM)
Quote:
Originally posted by -Serge_Oprano@Mar 10 2004, 02:56 PM
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Old 03-10-2004   #8
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Quote:
Originally posted by MattK@Mar 10 2004, 05:56 PM
I'm no trading guru, but both newsletters I read say rates are close to bottoming and interest rates on the 10 and 30 year treasuries will go up over the next month or so....
and when they do, they'll do it with the vengence, FAST and SWIFT...
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Old 03-10-2004   #9
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indeed.
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Old 03-10-2004   #10
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Quote:
Originally posted by MattK@Mar 10 2004, 02:56 PM
I'm no trading guru, but both newsletters I read say rates are close to bottoming and interest rates on the 10 and 30 year treasuries will go up over the next month or so....
Fear of crude oil and other price accelerations and the ensuing inflation fears which the Fed fights with higher interest rates is what caused me to today lock in my third mortgage refi in the last year, this time on a 15-year fixed rate at 4.75% with NO Points and no Closing COSTS (other than an appraisal, or re-certification of the last one).

Dave Cummings---Worry Wart

www.davecummings.com
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Old 03-11-2004   #11
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Quote:
Originally posted by davecummings+Mar 10 2004, 11:33 PM-->
QUOTE (davecummings @ Mar 10 2004, 11:33 PM)
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Old 03-11-2004   #12
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Serge,

As usual, I am coming in with opposite views.

I did get out of my bond future longs at 115.12/USM.

However, the consecutive closes above the resistance are telling me that bonds / notes are stronger than expected.

Short-term, there may be some downside (normal after proving strength), but I would be careful not to get too bearish until the market gives real technical signs of a break down.


btw, how you like them stock shorts? ;-)))



Last edited by wig at Mar 11 2004, 08:01 AM
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Old 03-11-2004   #13
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Quote:
Originally posted by wig@Mar 11 2004, 08:01 AM
Serge,

As usual, I am coming in with opposite views.

I did get out of my bond future longs at 115.12/USM.

However, the consecutive closes above the resistance are telling me that bonds / notes are stronger than expected.

Short-term, there may be some downside (normal after proving strength), but I would be careful not to get too bearish until the market gives real technical signs of a break down.


btw, how you like them stock shorts? ;-)))
I made a small fortune in those shorts and started repatriation of funds into shorting bonds.
I stated my reasons why, nothing technical, pure speculation on
1) end of Japanese fiscal year
2) large supply of treasuries hitting the market soon
and most important:
3) GUTS FEELING
;-)))
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Old 03-11-2004   #14
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You of all people know that number 3 can kill ya! ;-)

Seriously, Good luck.

You seem to be in and out quick. If we break, I will give you my calculations on support and what should be tested at a minimum. ;-)
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Old 03-11-2004   #15
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Quote:
Originally posted by wig@Mar 11 2004, 08:13 AM
You of all people know that number 3 can kill ya! ;-)

Seriously, Good luck.

You seem to be in and out quick. If we break, I will give you my calculations on support and what should be tested at a minimum. ;-)
yeap, #3 is a leading cause of ALL Wall Street deaths
;-)))

The way I play it and see it..
I had few CD's mature and rather than re-invest them into
smaller rate/longer terms
I put $$ to work on the bet that the rates rise once again...even eventually.

as for quick in and outs-
my wife HATES when it happens
;-)))
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Old 03-11-2004   #16
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as for calculations,
you know old joke when son came to father and asked what the difference between theoretical and practical, right?

it ends with:
"Theoretically we are millionairs but practically we are living with 2 whores"
;-)

this is a quintessential about market calculations
;-))))
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Old 03-11-2004   #17
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Quote:
Originally posted by Serge_Oprano@Mar 11 2004, 08:20 AM
as for calculations,
you know old joke when son came to father and asked what the difference between theoretical and practical, right?

it ends with:
"Theoretically we are millionairs but practically we are living with 2 whores"
;-)

this is a quintessential about market calculations
;-))))
For most people, I would agree. Charts are intriquing to so many, but few actually have enough understanding to get anything of real value from them.

I've been doing it for 17 years now and I know what works and what does not.

I think my record speaks for itself, too.
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Old 03-11-2004   #18
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Quote:
Originally posted by wig+Mar 11 2004, 08:40 AM-->
QUOTE (wig @ Mar 11 2004, 08:40 AM)
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Old 03-11-2004   #19
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Quote:
Originally posted by Serge_Oprano+Mar 11 2004, 08:42 AM-->
« Previous Thread | Next Thread »

QUOTE (Serge_Oprano @ Mar 11 2004, 08:42 AM)
Quote:
Originally posted by -wig@Mar 11 2004, 08:40 AM
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Old 03-11-2004   #20
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wig,
Greenspan backs my bet
;-)

Greenspan told lawmakers U.S. employment should pick up before long as the economic recovery gains momentum.

"In all likelihood, employment will begin to increase more quickly before long as output continues to expand," he told the House Education and Workforce Committee.

"This was the second speech within a month that Greenspan chose to deviate from his scheduled topic in order to signal a sense of optimism about the long-term outlook on jobs," said Tony Crescenzi, chief bond-market strategist with Miller Tabak & Co.

"There are some who believe that the Fed has been trying to signal a modest shift in its commitment on short-term rates," he added.

Last Friday's payrolls report sent the bond market on a tear, driving yields from a tight range to the July lows, as short-term interest-rate futures markets pushed back expectations for a Fed rate hike until near year's end.
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