Is mobile the future?

[Nickatilynx]

‘People are not really flocking' to multipurpose cellphones

By Michelle Kessler
USA TODAY

SAN FRANCISCO — After years of baby steps, cellphones and other electronic gadgets are finally becoming one.

As early as this week, Motorola and Apple could launch a long-awaited cellphone with built-in iTunes digital music player. The phone, in the works for at least nine months, is expected to be offered through carrier Cingular Wireless, says equity analyst Albert Lin at American Technology Research. The companies declined comment.

It won't be the first music phone; those have been around in the USA since 2000. But it will be one of the first to marry a very popular consumer product and a phone.

And iTunes is just the latest cellphone add-on. Digital video viewers, video and still cameras, and elaborate messaging systems are all becoming cellphone staples.

But a big question remains: Do most people want these multipurpose devices? The answer may be no, many tech analysts say.

“People are not really flocking to phones with new features,” says David Chamberlain, a mobile phone analyst with In-Stat. “They just want to talk on the phone.”

A recent In-Stat survey showed relatively little interest in new phone add-ons, such as video. Since most people upgrade their phone about every two years, they're looking for an easy-to-use device — not a pricey all-in-one, Lin says.

Still, cellphone companies persist with fancy phones. That's because:

•Data is lucrative. Cellular carriers make big bucks selling text messages, ring tones and other add-ons. In Sprint's most recent quarter, it reported $6.50 in average revenue per user in data fees — about 10% of its total user revenue.

Cellphone ring tones — song clips that play in place of a regular ring — cost about $3 each. That's a lot more than the 99 cents iTunes charges for a full song. Much of the difference goes into carriers' pockets, Lin says. It's unclear how the iTunes phone will deal with this discrepancy.

•The market is huge. There are about 2 billion cellphone users worldwide, Lin says. Even a modest hit in a market that big can be a huge financial success. Take Motorola's trendy, multimedia RAZR phone. It helped propel Motorola cellphone revenue up about $1 billion in its most recent quarter compared with a year earlier.

The gigantic cellphone market can hold even more upside for companies that don't already play in it. For example, Apple has sold about 21 million iPods since the device was launched in 2001. Motorola sold almost 34 million cellphones in its most recent quarter.

But the iPod phone is far from a guaranteed success. It's expected to be expensive, priced somewhere from $250 to $300, Lin says. That's about the same cost as a separate iPod and phone. (IPods run from $99 to $399. Many mainstream cellphones start at $99 before carrier rebates.)

And its capacity is expected to be limited, though theories vary on exactly how many songs it will hold. “I think the potential (for the iPod phone) is smaller than what many people think,” Lin says.

[TheEnforcer]

I certainly think the potential is there for HUGE business ventures to be taken advantage of to be sure.

[SykkBoy]

The key is niche marketing...the big players have already established their territory and are spending ungodly amounts on advertising, but leaving a wide open market for niche players and content providers...

[Newton]

Apple are pissed, because i believe it was nokia who were launching a new phone without the deal with itunes They can do so much more without itunes as any mp3 device can listen to them if they really wanted to? Those industry analysts are wrong ..

I have a dream and lots of voices in my head

[Dravyk]

Not the immediate future -- that is, not in North America for some reason.

The world outside of the US and Canada seem to be going ape shit over all this.

Here, it seems it's the 18-24 demographic plus the techies only. That said, it will slowly be the future as that 18-24 (really it's probably more like 14-24) in a few years will be 14-30 and an entire generation.

Again, the over 30s here, myself included, overall don't see podcasting, MP3 players, radio, TV and all that combined into cells as anything to grab us.

Why are we different than other countries or other countries different from us? No idea. Would love to know the answer though. It's a strange cultural vacuum we seem to have that is apart from the rest of the globe.

[Carrie]

I see so many people here with cellphones, I sometimes feel like I'm an ancient holdout. But as popular as mobile is here, the billing just hasn't taken off like it has everywhere else. I'm still scratching my head over that one.

Voltar had the newbies buying up mobile domains yearsssss ago - even started a link list and targeted Google spidering effort for sites that could be displayed on those tiny little screen. The night he was on the (web) radio - I think with Snoops? - the registrars were getting slammed with mobile registrations.

I saw an ad for a camera phone just recently that spins to open up (anyone know which one I mean?) and it has a nice big screen on the back. Almost the whole size of the phone, it looked like. Now if *that* is where the screens on these things are headed, then content delivery in the adult market is about to really take off. As it stands now though, there's still a long wait before it's really big.

For non-adult, or for adult content that doesn't depend on pictures/video? The market's ripe...

[Dravyk]

The coolest one I've seen -- someone else no doubt knows the one I mean -- is where the cellphone is hinged. It looks like a cellphone, then it opens on the side, you turn it around horizontally and it's a decent sized screen with a long width (probably the 16:9 HD dimensions) and the bottom section gives one a larger keyboard than any other portable device I've seen.

Natch, it would probably be a bit more burdensome than a regular cell because of it's size, but instead of carting around a PDA or a Blackberry or a cell with a palm-top both, it would probably be worth it.

Again though, notice, that's just for Net connectability. Still not big into playing songs on it, watching streaming TV on it or using it as a video camera either.

[Carrie]

Streaming tv to a phone? Hell I'm still waiting for streaming tv to come online for those of us at home with decent-sized screens...
If I could get the usual cable tv offerings delivered to my computer, I'd sign up so fast my credit card would melt - boggles the mind why this isn't available already. We've got Tivo and DVR, we've got every major tv show/entity in existence putting video clips on their websites - when the hell are they gonna put the last piece in place and offer full streaming on-demand tv shows online for a subscription fee?

[Rolo]

Funny this talk about "multipurpose cellphones", since I have not been able to find one phone that fits all my needs.. they always seam to be missing one feature, and the features they do have are usual 2 years behind what you can get from a device that focus on one specific thing. The "killer cellphone" have not been made yet... well atleast not to my segment ;-)

[pushpills]

Originally Posted by Rolo

Funny this talk about "multipurpose cellphones", since I have not been able to find one phone that fits all my needs.. they always seam to be missing one feature, and the features they do have are usual 2 years behind what you can get from a device that focus on one specific thing. The "killer cellphone" have not been made yet... well atleast not to my segment ;-)

same here! getting closer now...i just havent liked the certain ones that had mp3 compat so far.

I need a 3+ mpx camera with flash, slot for flash memory for pics and music, mp3 playing ability with GOOD list maker thing, preferably that just has winamp built in.....blue tooth...and preferably a fleshlight attatchment to the vibrating battery so I can put it down my pants while I walk places and listen to music and wait for a phone call.

and the ability to use it like a credit card like the japanese would be nice.

[Nickatilynx]

Originally Posted by Rolo

they always seam to be missing one feature, and the features they do have are usual 2 years behind what you can get from a device that focus on one specific thing. The "killer cellphone" have not been made yet... well atleast not to my segment ;-)

Most vibrate now so your no 1 priority one is resolved at least.

;-)))

[Carrie]

And you can download a moaning pornstar ringtone.
There's probably one out there that sounds like she's got her mouth full, even.
(geeeeze)

[Dravyk]

Originally Posted by Nickatilynx

Most vibrate now so your no 1 priority one is resolved at least.

;-)))

Well, now we're back to your conversation about batteries with a lot more power.