Mathematics and Markets predicts Bush over Kerry

Almighty Colin · 06-15-2004

The highly accurate Fair "presidential vote equation" predicts Bush will win in a landslide by election time because of the economy.
http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/vote2004/index2.htm

Purportedly much more accurate than national sampling polls, The University of Iowa futures market currently predicts Bush over Kerry 51 to 47.
http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem

Interesting all the money being wagered on Clinton for VP. What's up with that?

BTW .. you can "trade" there ;-)

Last edited by Colin at Jun 16 2004, 05:36 AM

Mike AI · 06-15-2004

This would be nice.

There was definately a lot of momentum against Bush the past few months, I think he weathered through it pretty well. Of course it helps to have Kerry as your opponent.

Almighty Colin · 06-15-2004

July 26 looms large.

wig · 06-15-2004

I am for anything that slows the Federal Gov't down. You surely cannot count on politicians to do what they say in the campaign once they get in office.

Bush winning will not slow the Gov't down as much as Kerry winning.

Presidents are constricted to doing only certain things in their first term that they are not in their second term when they pull out all the stops on the way out.

I think the founding fathers got it right when they described the eventual bankruptcy of the country as people realize they can vote themselves money.

Like hurricanes, floods, earthquakes, meteor strikes, etc., it is no a matter of if but when.

I'm not going to worry about it, but I agree with it.

Monk · 06-15-2004

gigi · 06-16-2004

I've just been reading about PHI and it's relation to the stock market....has there been any studies on it's relationship to politics? Might be an interesting research project

Feynman · 06-17-2004

"GOODNEWS quarter" ?!?

Djeezus! What kind of 1984-ish Newspeak is that?

Not surprizing coming from Yale, the alma mater of both Bush and Kerry, both Skull and Bones members...

Last edited by Feynman at Jun 16 2004, 08:50 PM

Almighty Colin · 06-17-2004

The first 2004 presidential debate is going to be held here in Miami. Unfortunately, there's no real way to get tickets. Kerry is considered a great debater and Bush is quite good too - going back to his surprise "win" over Ann Richards.

Almighty Colin · 06-17-2004

Quote:

Originally posted by gigi@Jun 16 2004, 12:56 PM
I've just been reading about PHI and it's relation to the stock market....has there been any studies on it's relationship to politics? Might be an interesting research project

PHI from the fibonacci sequence?

Almighty Colin · 06-17-2004

Quote:

Originally posted by Feynman@Jun 16 2004, 11:49 PM
Not surprizing coming from Yale

gigi · 06-17-2004

Quote:

« Previous Thread | Next Thread »

Originally posted by Colin+Jun 17 2004, 02:47 AM-->
QUOTE (Colin @ Jun 17 2004, 02:47 AM)

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06-20-2004 #12

Almighty Colin

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Man, this could be a close election. Kerry was +7 in one national poll in the past few weeks and Bush was +10. The state by state breakdown looks pretty close. I'm still leaning toward Kerry because I think the Bush admin had mismanaged the political aspects of the Iraqi war and because of the religious and anti-porn aspects of Bush/Ashcroft. I wish Kerry would give me a reason to vote for him though.

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06-15-2004	#2
Mike AI Administrator Want to see your own Advertising Here! Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 11,618	This would be nice. There was definately a lot of momentum against Bush the past few months, I think he weathered through it pretty well. Of course it helps to have Kerry as your opponent. __________________ Make big money on your Domains! Why wait 40 days to get paid with the other guys? Parked.com pays the most for your traffic, and cuts checks twice a month!

06-16-2004	#6
gigi on prozac - be gentle Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Canada, eh! Posts: 1,069	I've just been reading about PHI and it's relation to the stock market....has there been any studies on it's relationship to politics? Might be an interesting research project __________________ A bit of fragrance always clings to the hand that gives the rose mail me

06-17-2004	#7
Feynman Members Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Behind the camera. The camera is in Montreal Posts: 34	"GOODNEWS quarter" ?!? Djeezus! What kind of 1984-ish Newspeak is that? Not surprizing coming from Yale, the alma mater of both Bush and Kerry, both Skull and Bones members... Last edited by Feynman at Jun 16 2004, 08:50 PM __________________ D. Feynman Photography www.AngelTease.com

06-15-2004	#1
Almighty Colin Members Want to see your own Advertising Here! Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 8,059	The highly accurate Fair "presidential vote equation" predicts Bush will win in a landslide by election time because of the economy. http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/vote2004/index2.htm Purportedly much more accurate than national sampling polls, The University of Iowa futures market currently predicts Bush over Kerry 51 to 47. http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem Interesting all the money being wagered on Clinton for VP. What's up with that? BTW .. you can "trade" there ;-) Last edited by Colin at Jun 16 2004, 05:36 AM __________________ Almighty Content. Your one stop for live content. Secret Friends, LATINA Secret Friends , My Cam Friends

06-15-2004	#3
Almighty Colin Members Want to see your own Advertising Here! Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 8,059	July 26 looms large. __________________ Almighty Content. Your one stop for live content. Secret Friends, LATINA Secret Friends , My Cam Friends

06-15-2004	#4
wig Members Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 1,248	I am for anything that slows the Federal Gov't down. You surely cannot count on politicians to do what they say in the campaign once they get in office. Bush winning will not slow the Gov't down as much as Kerry winning. Presidents are constricted to doing only certain things in their first term that they are not in their second term when they pull out all the stops on the way out. I think the founding fathers got it right when they described the eventual bankruptcy of the country as people realize they can vote themselves money. Like hurricanes, floods, earthquakes, meteor strikes, etc., it is no a matter of if but when. I'm not going to worry about it, but I agree with it.