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I lost about 22% since the rally started in April. I am out of stock short
funds now until s&p 500 goes back below 960. I was short bonds but
they have been mixed recently, and are due for a comeback.
bad things will happen for the economy once the Dow goes below
7000 again.
Originally posted by wig@Sep 2 2003, 03:37 PM
Currently, I still expect to see a decline followed by another rally into early 2004. Whether this rally is a higher or lower high I am uncertain.
I will say that fore the most part, the rally is over. The risk is to the downside.
wow! that was fast.
risk is to the downside, but we have been getting these
surprise rallies that come out of nowhere on low volume.
since 1996, August is usually a down month for stocks
but this year they were up.
Would that be all stocks? Anything opinion on bonds? REITS?
For securities I am up 9.65% for the year.
For REITS I am up 19.84% and that is after liquidating CPJ which I made 45% on.
Bonds I have not done to well on, I am down 2.85% for the year.... but I did sell OTCM and made 33% - Thanks to Serge who put me onto them.
OF course the way my luck goes, its now up 42.11% - but as Serge says, I will never go broke taking 25% and pcoketing it.
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Would that be all stocks? Anything opinion on bonds? REITS?
For securities I am up 9.65% for the year.
For REITS I am up 19.84% and that is after liquidating CPJ which I made 45% on.
Bonds I have not done to well on, I am down 2.85% for the year.... but I did sell OTCM and made 33% - Thanks to Serge who put me onto them.
OF course the way my luck goes, its now up 42.11% - but as Serge says, I will never go broke taking 25% and pcoketing it.
25% and you complaining????
;-))
I am only up 4.9% for the year....
but after paying taxes and all living expences
;-))))
do you see me comlaining????
I gotta take you to Peru and DO leave you at Leper Colony!
;-)))))
Serge I saw your post, that looks to be an exciting trip - Katie and I would definately be interested in going if times work out well.
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Make big money on your Domains! Why wait 40 days to get paid with the other guys? Parked.com pays the most for your traffic, and cuts checks twice a month!
Originally posted by Mike AI@Sep 2 2003, 04:18 PM Serge I saw your post, that looks to be an exciting trip - Katie and I would definately be interested in going if times work out well.
Mike,
I am very excited!
plus....I intend to give seminar one of those nites:
"My strugle with Lensman over $1000 bet",
thus qualifying it for...
Business Educational Trip!
;-)))
When I get back to NO I can look over my calander....
BTW I am back in Tampa.... at least for 10 days or so....
Sig, Noah, and Matt are heading in Friday for a fact finding mission... New project from the boys at InterCosmos....
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Originally posted by Serge_Oprano+Sep 2 2003, 04:30 PM-->
QUOTE (Serge_Oprano @ Sep 2 2003, 04:30 PM)
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Make big money on your Domains! Why wait 40 days to get paid with the other guys? Parked.com pays the most for your traffic, and cuts checks twice a month!
Would that be all stocks? Anything opinion on bonds? REITS?
For securities I am up 9.65% for the year.
For REITS I am up 19.84% and that is after liquidating CPJ which I made 45% on.
Bonds I have not done to well on, I am down 2.85% for the year.... but I did sell OTCM and made 33% - Thanks to Serge who put me onto them.
OF course the way my luck goes, its now up 42.11% - but as Serge says, I will never go broke taking 25% and pcoketing it.
Mike,
Overall equities (DJIA, S&P, Nasdaq). Longer term player should sell into this strength and go elsewhere with the cash.
Monk, remember that article I told you about that I wrote for Futures magazine in 1995? It was about using RSI as a failure swing indicator instead of an overbought / oversold indicator.
Well, we just hit the failure swing level on a monthly basis in all indexes. This means that we are within a month of a top.
Caveat: we could see a downturn followed by another rally to a higher high with a diverging RSI. I actually have this as my primary expectation going into early 2004.
Regardless, a significant correction should take hold by mid month.
Originally posted by wig@Sep 3 2003, 07:44 AM Monk, remember that article I told you about that I wrote for Futures magazine in 1995? It was about using RSI as a failure swing indicator instead of an overbought / oversold indicator.
Well, we just hit the failure swing level on a monthly basis in all indexes. This means that we are within a month of a top.
Caveat: we could see a downturn followed by another rally to a higher high with a diverging RSI. I actually have this as my primary expectation going into early 2004.
Regardless, a significant correction should take hold by mid month.
That's good to know wig.
I don't expect the market will just crash given all the support it has put beneath it over the last 9 months... so a lower high OR a higher high on negative divergences would make sense. I think this sucker will take awhile to roll over.
Not technical analysis, but I imagine the government will do all that it can to keep the market from crashing as we go into the 2004 presidential elections.
09-02-2003
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