Historian John Keegan's article on the war

Almighty Colin · 04-01-2003

Article by John Keegan, who wrote the book on WW II that is on top of my current stack.

From:
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/04/01/...8962762448.html

-------------

Somewhere in my collection of First World War ephemera I have a picture postcard of Blackpool sent on August 6, 1914, two days after the outbreak, which reads: "Dear Dot, All the trains have stopped, so we are staying until it is over."

The inability to read how military events are unfolding is not a new phenomenon. The writer of the postcard might be excused, however. The headless chickens whose cluckings and splutterings currently fill the media are more blameworthy.

War has been their staple diet for much of their professional lives but they seem to have made precious little effort to understand what they are paid to report. And in the age of rolling news, even the fair-minded are hampered by the scramble to react to the last reported event.

Yet, by disregarding the stimulus of television on the hour, it is perfectly possible to take a long-term view of events in Iraq. The secret is to rule a sheet of paper into double columns and put favourable factors into one, unfavourable factors into the other and strike a balance. The favourable factors outweigh the unfavourable by a considerable margin.

Take the unfavourable first. High on the list comes the refusal of Turkey to allow American troops to open a northern front from its territory. Had it done so, Baghdad would be threatened from two sides, Saddam would have had to divide his forces and the Americans would probably already be knocking at the gates of the city.

Second: irregular resistance. The coalition had not apparently made allowance for the emergence of the fedayeen, the militia personally loyal to Saddam, or to the arming of Ba'ath party activists. That they are participating in the fighting has prompted the revival of memories, almost certainly inappropriate, of Vietnam. Iraq is not Vietnam. The topography does not favour protracted guerilla operations, nor has the population been politicised as the Vietnamese was by the Vietcong.

Third unfavourable factor: shortage of coalition troops. Here the critics have a point. There probably are too few troops. However, more are on the way while Iraqi weakness prevents Saddam from profiting from the miscalculation before they arrive.

Fourth unfavourable factor: the number of "friendly fire" deaths. Friendly fire is an age-old phenomenon. Nevertheless, the proportion so far is disturbingly high. It can only be hoped that, as combat experience deepens, all concerned will become less quick on the trigger.

To turn to the positive column. First, the coalition has made astonishingly rapid progress. The principal objective was and remains Baghdad, to the vicinity of which the American V Corps advanced within three days of crossing the start line, a distance of some 480 kilometres. Baghdad is highly vulnerable to a final push. Only three Republican Guard divisions stand between the coalition forces and the city itself. Once reinforcements arrive, or even before, the opposition will be defeated.

Second: casualties so far have been encouragingly few. Although irregulars have succeeded in killing coalition soldiers, singly or in small groups, they have not won any battles or even mounted successful ambushes. Suicide tactics, so deadly against civilians in crowded city streets, work less well, if at all, against armed soldiers on the alert in open country.

Third: the Iraqi army is not fighting. The divisions around Baghdad seem to be waiting to be attacked. Although the long line of communications from Baghdad to Basra is coming under pressure, the attacks are sporadic and small-scale.

Fourth: the Americans have achieved a vital success in capturing several of the essential bridges over the Euphrates. The failure to hold the bridges, or to blow them before capture, suggests a highly defective Iraqi defensive strategy.

Fifth: despite the appearance of the irregulars, and the failure of the Iraqi army to desert in large numbers as was optimistically expected, the population seems inert. While it is not welcoming the invaders en masse, it is equally not raising the standard of resistance.

Finally, and to revert to the large military picture, the coalition enjoys total air superiority.

In a conventional military environment, not so heavily influenced by the surveillance of the media, any commanding general might reckon the campaign had made highly satisfactory progress so far. It has secured most of the territory and facilities over which it needs to operate, has a secure base, has acquired its own resupply port, dominates the enemy and is not threatened by large-scale civilian disorder.

The critical phase, the battle for Baghdad, has still to be reached. It is inconceivable, however, that the American army will not defeat the Republican Guard outside the city and such a defeat, in all likelihood, will rapidly bring about the city's fall.

Meanwhile, the focus is on Basra. There is no reason to think that the British will not succeed in the occupation. The fall of Basra will be a severe blow to Saddam's prestige and will signal to the population that the coalition is winning. In the next few days what the British will do dominate events in Iraq.

Mike AI · 04-01-2003

I have read a majority of Keegan's books. He is probably the best military historian of his time. He is right on the mark with this war as well.

Almighty Colin · 04-01-2003

Quote:

Originally posted by Mike AI@Apr 1 2003, 12:18 PM
I have read a majority of Keegan's books. He is probably the best military historian of his time. He is right on the mark with this war as well.

Sweet! I just bought "The Second World War" by Keegan. It's next on my list. Looking even more forward to it now based on your positive comments, Mike.

Almighty Colin · 04-01-2003

Quote:

Originally posted by Mike AI@Apr 1 2003, 12:18 PM
He is right on the mark with this war as well.

Agreed.

Almighty Colin · 04-01-2003

Many [most?] oil fields secured

No terrorist attacks @ home - so far anyway.

04-01-2003	#1
Almighty Colin Members Want to see your own Advertising Here! Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 8,059	Article by John Keegan, who wrote the book on WW II that is on top of my current stack. From: http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/04/01/...8962762448.html ------------- Somewhere in my collection of First World War ephemera I have a picture postcard of Blackpool sent on August 6, 1914, two days after the outbreak, which reads: "Dear Dot, All the trains have stopped, so we are staying until it is over." The inability to read how military events are unfolding is not a new phenomenon. The writer of the postcard might be excused, however. The headless chickens whose cluckings and splutterings currently fill the media are more blameworthy. War has been their staple diet for much of their professional lives but they seem to have made precious little effort to understand what they are paid to report. And in the age of rolling news, even the fair-minded are hampered by the scramble to react to the last reported event. Yet, by disregarding the stimulus of television on the hour, it is perfectly possible to take a long-term view of events in Iraq. The secret is to rule a sheet of paper into double columns and put favourable factors into one, unfavourable factors into the other and strike a balance. The favourable factors outweigh the unfavourable by a considerable margin. Take the unfavourable first. High on the list comes the refusal of Turkey to allow American troops to open a northern front from its territory. Had it done so, Baghdad would be threatened from two sides, Saddam would have had to divide his forces and the Americans would probably already be knocking at the gates of the city. Second: irregular resistance. The coalition had not apparently made allowance for the emergence of the fedayeen, the militia personally loyal to Saddam, or to the arming of Ba'ath party activists. That they are participating in the fighting has prompted the revival of memories, almost certainly inappropriate, of Vietnam. Iraq is not Vietnam. The topography does not favour protracted guerilla operations, nor has the population been politicised as the Vietnamese was by the Vietcong. Third unfavourable factor: shortage of coalition troops. Here the critics have a point. There probably are too few troops. However, more are on the way while Iraqi weakness prevents Saddam from profiting from the miscalculation before they arrive. Fourth unfavourable factor: the number of "friendly fire" deaths. Friendly fire is an age-old phenomenon. Nevertheless, the proportion so far is disturbingly high. It can only be hoped that, as combat experience deepens, all concerned will become less quick on the trigger. To turn to the positive column. First, the coalition has made astonishingly rapid progress. The principal objective was and remains Baghdad, to the vicinity of which the American V Corps advanced within three days of crossing the start line, a distance of some 480 kilometres. Baghdad is highly vulnerable to a final push. Only three Republican Guard divisions stand between the coalition forces and the city itself. Once reinforcements arrive, or even before, the opposition will be defeated. Second: casualties so far have been encouragingly few. Although irregulars have succeeded in killing coalition soldiers, singly or in small groups, they have not won any battles or even mounted successful ambushes. Suicide tactics, so deadly against civilians in crowded city streets, work less well, if at all, against armed soldiers on the alert in open country. Third: the Iraqi army is not fighting. The divisions around Baghdad seem to be waiting to be attacked. Although the long line of communications from Baghdad to Basra is coming under pressure, the attacks are sporadic and small-scale. Fourth: the Americans have achieved a vital success in capturing several of the essential bridges over the Euphrates. The failure to hold the bridges, or to blow them before capture, suggests a highly defective Iraqi defensive strategy. Fifth: despite the appearance of the irregulars, and the failure of the Iraqi army to desert in large numbers as was optimistically expected, the population seems inert. While it is not welcoming the invaders en masse, it is equally not raising the standard of resistance. Finally, and to revert to the large military picture, the coalition enjoys total air superiority. In a conventional military environment, not so heavily influenced by the surveillance of the media, any commanding general might reckon the campaign had made highly satisfactory progress so far. It has secured most of the territory and facilities over which it needs to operate, has a secure base, has acquired its own resupply port, dominates the enemy and is not threatened by large-scale civilian disorder. The critical phase, the battle for Baghdad, has still to be reached. It is inconceivable, however, that the American army will not defeat the Republican Guard outside the city and such a defeat, in all likelihood, will rapidly bring about the city's fall. Meanwhile, the focus is on Basra. There is no reason to think that the British will not succeed in the occupation. The fall of Basra will be a severe blow to Saddam's prestige and will signal to the population that the coalition is winning. In the next few days what the British will do dominate events in Iraq. __________________ Almighty Content. Your one stop for live content. Secret Friends, LATINA Secret Friends , My Cam Friends

04-01-2003	#2
Mike AI Administrator Want to see your own Advertising Here! Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 11,618	I have read a majority of Keegan's books. He is probably the best military historian of his time. He is right on the mark with this war as well. __________________ Make big money on your Domains! Why wait 40 days to get paid with the other guys? Parked.com pays the most for your traffic, and cuts checks twice a month!

04-01-2003	#5
Almighty Colin Members Want to see your own Advertising Here! Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 8,059	Many [most?] oil fields secured No terrorist attacks @ home - so far anyway. __________________ Almighty Content. Your one stop for live content. Secret Friends, LATINA Secret Friends , My Cam Friends