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| Legacy Archived Main Board Business chat and general industry chat. All participation is welcome. Dont post your fucking spam here. |

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#1 |
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Prostate Examiner
I quoff fine wine at corkd.com
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: good 'ole USA
Posts: 21,018
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am I the only one who sees the industry shrinkage?
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#2 |
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Administrator
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Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 11,618
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Serge is is shrinking like my penis when I hop into a un-heated pool in January....
Of course I never had much to start off with. Where was the Like Whoa booth? They used to have a HUGE pressence. House of cards collapse? |
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#3 | |
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Members
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Location: Hills of N. GA
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Quote:
One thing I DID notice was how many TGP people were there. They were merely a blip on the radar a couple of years ago, but now they seemed to eclipse the free site/pay site/link list etc. folks in sheer numbers Or did you mean shrinkage as in George Costanza's "shrinkage"? In THAT case, I agree - but you guys ARE getting older
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#4 | |
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Prostate Examiner
I quoff fine wine at corkd.com
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: good 'ole USA
Posts: 21,018
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Quote:
;-))
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#5 |
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Prostate Examiner
I quoff fine wine at corkd.com
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: good 'ole USA
Posts: 21,018
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anotyher quite noticable MIA's...
AMATEURS from the old days.. no Ro and Pushrod, no Jim and Vickie, no Dan and Carol Cox, no Janie and Stephen.... I think the entire AMATEURS disapeared as class....
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#6 |
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Members
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Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Hills of N. GA
Posts: 10,823
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Speaking of missing, did ANYONE see Nancy/Gramma? I looked for her and either she didn't come, or she was hiding from me
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#7 | |
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Members
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: In a galaxy far Far Away
Posts: 110
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Quote:
methinks she was in Hiding with her son, daughter in law and that new grandbaby!
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#8 |
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Polishing the Chrome on Bishops Motorcycle
$100 for every ImLive sign-up
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Hell: Bowels : Level 9
Posts: 4,153
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While some are shrinking and shrivelling and maybe even drying up and blowing away, there are some smaller programs that see this as an opportunity to grow.
We've always prided ourselves on being a small, totally niche, more "non-webmaster" friendly program...but sicne we have very little overhead, we can live on table crumbs of others...their shrinking margins are a huge step up for us. Some see disaster, others see opportunity...my uncle who dabbles in the markets is what he calls a Misery Eater...he loves to see disaster and capitalize on it by going opposite of everyone else...while some see dispair and collapse, he sees opportunity. I'm glad I inherited that trait from him and not his trait of sticking his penis in the asses of 18 year old men (not that there is anyhing wrong with that trait) )))You have to admit, chaos is exciting (when it's not your chaos) Last edited by SykkBoy at Jan 12 2003, 04:58 PM
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#9 |
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Prostate Examiner
I quoff fine wine at corkd.com
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: good 'ole USA
Posts: 21,018
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Sykk,
even webmaster hairs get shorter and shorter...at least that what somebody said about you ;-)))
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#10 |
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3 1/2 More Years...
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Portland, OR.
Posts: 1,523
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Sykk,
your on target dude. As this economy stays bad until at least 4th qu. 2003 or in the beg. of 2004 I think there will be alot of shakeup in our industry and others. for those of us who have been around for some time, this is good news in a way, not just that companies might leave adult, but that it makes us think and come up with new ideas / products to sell, promote, get the surfer (our customer) buying a little more. Well if Sykk cut his hair, I am surprised )but seriously, gotta have shorter hair now, big brother and the republicans in control don't like us hippies ![]() Hilliary in 2008, wouldn't give a shit about adult net, porn, etc.
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#11 |
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Prostate Examiner
I quoff fine wine at corkd.com
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: good 'ole USA
Posts: 21,018
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Todd, yes she will...internet porn her husband's VP had invented,
has destroyed her marriage ;-)) I wanna see your face when your democratic friends come for YOU! ;-)) THIS pic will be PRICELESS! ;-))) ..especially if the last name of DA happens to be Rabinowitz ;-)))
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#12 |
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3 1/2 More Years...
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Portland, OR.
Posts: 1,523
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Fucking Jewish DA's Serge
![]() I know this sucks to say it, but I feel that if a war / looking for terrorist wasn't going on right now in the Bush Admin. I would be willing to bet that that Ashcroft would be working more and more on the adult / porn side of things. As it is they are too busy with military issues right now i guess.
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#13 | |
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Fat Fucking Nobody
Want to see your own Advertising Here!
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 6,523
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Quote:
TGPs have become the easiest target for traffic....such as it is. So not only do you have all of the newbies playing the TGP game, but a larger and larger percentage of hobbyists who previously played free sites, link lists, etc. Thus you're seeing the pressure in the middle tiers of the business. The big guys are ok, they've made their money, and a good warchest of cash is the best way to weather any storm. The little guys are ok because many of them are just in for beer money anyway. Many of the ones who are doing it as their real job dont have house payments, kids or worry about such trivial things as retirement investing, etc. It's the guys in the middle who are trying to make payroll for themselves and maybe a handful of employees that are really getting squeezed because the margins are pretty thin on TGP traffic even if you're good at it. And many of the other wells for traffic have somewhat dried up. |
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#14 |
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french with welsh tendancies
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 2,007
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I heard from most people that this was one of the biggest Vegas show.
so, no. Now if your question was: "Are me and my old time friends starting to fall out of the picture?" than yes, gramps
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#15 |
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Guest
Posts: n/a
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If my tag says I'm about to say something moronic, it's probably true.
I not only disappeared from the boards for 18 months, I also left the industry for the most part. I still run my site, but the time I spent in bed (grin) and recovering my health have left me a newbie all over again. I never had any luck with TGP traffic, including TGPII, it was disastrous. I've been hearing that top lists are coming back, has that been true in anyone's experience? I'm sitting on an incredible site that has no traffic. Dabbling in the SE's earlier in the year with an acknowledged expert in the field (whom I do not blame) left me with a high 4 figure expenditure and zip in results. What are people doing now to generate traffic? Aside from putting my site into a major program, which I hope to do shortly, is there anything I could be doing? From what I saw at the show, a lot of the new people that are doing well are spamming..apart from that, any suggestions? One major person here told me in ICQ that he doubts he's getting 20K hits a day..I know this guy used to do 200K..am I correct in assuming that we're all pretty much in the same boat here and it's just a matter of how big we were before the economy went south? |
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#16 | |
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Polishing the Chrome on Bishops Motorcycle
$100 for every ImLive sign-up
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Hell: Bowels : Level 9
Posts: 4,153
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Quote:
my hair got shorter as did Wizzo's, Mark Tiarra's, Green Guy's, Vick's...all our hair is shrinking... ah, the chaos of a hair salon/barber shop.......you should have seen the chaos when I was openly admiring the perky young breasts hanging over me when I was having all the hair cut off.... I think my dick may be shrinking too, but as long as my bank account is growing, I don't really care...I'll just buy some love from someone at the office ;)))
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#17 | |||
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Guest
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#18 |
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Members
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: California, USA
Posts: 1,340
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So much has changed within the industry - just by comparing last year to this. When we look back at the "Genesis Days" when things got started - we can see the patterns as they emerge and will realize that this is just another stage in our development. Already we can see the evolutionary process hit everyone - all the way from the big, big, big guy down to the little newbie dudes. Even though things are thinning out AND are getting tougher - I still think it's a good thing. Too many newbies were coming in asking for "money making map in a box" and were getting it. It used to be you could throw up a crappy site using Front Page and make a buck. Now - it's much harder to make that buck on the net and only the tough will survive.
It's what I've been saying all along - network with other successful or hard-working webmasters whenever possible, work even harder than you've ever worked before, never give up, never give in - and most of all: don't be afraid to try new things. Serge preached years ago that webmasters need to think "out of the box" and those who listened to him have gone on to try many new things, making their own successes as they paved the road toward new options for us all. Survival of the fittest. This industry is still in its baby-hood. We've got many more millions to make. But we need to be more creative and work hard once again to get there. Those who want to sit back and bitch - go ahead. Nice knowin' ya. Those who want to work hard and be here to tell the tale - I'll see you at the next show. ![]() I think 2003 will be a landmark year for comings and goings of industry "big names" and businesses. Those who can hang tough and weather the storm will reap the benefits in the end. It's not over folks - it's just changing. |
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#19 |
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Members
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 1,156
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I reallly think everything is industry and most industries are cyclical. With the exception of a few *really* high barrier to entry industries (e.g. cars, movie studios, electric corps etc..) i think you constantly see a flux of new industry leaders.
Did anybody else read the post a few weeks ago where fantasyman literally said that he had his time to shine and he enjoyed it... but that now it's time for a newer younger group to dominate? I just find it interesting. What is also interesting for me is the perspectives of people... most of ya'll on this board were making money hand over fist in 96-99 when margins were huge and surfers were suckers... whereas guys like us werent making a dime then because in all likelihood we werent even in the biz yet.. whereas newer sponsors see 1000 joins a day, get excited and make it with generous margins in comparison to most industries... while old-timers see it and think "oh fuck, only 1000 joins a day? the sky is falling" and because they were used to and built around exorbitant margins.. they have a hard time making money with their old business models... just my
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#20 | |
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Members
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Location: Hills of N. GA
Posts: 10,823
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Quote:
For the first time in 5+ years I'm looking at working TGP's.....AND looking outside the industry as far as "extra" cash, as I'm probably attempting to get on the TGP boat after it's sailed.
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#21 |
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Prostate Examiner
I quoff fine wine at corkd.com
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: good 'ole USA
Posts: 21,018
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Hooper,
VERY nice observations, indeed... as we say in Russia "One says he is poor because his soup is weak, another says he is poor because his diamonds are to small" ;-)) I think you nailed "FantasyMan" industry tendencies to the "T"
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#22 |
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Members
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Six Feet Under
Posts: 2,150
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Regarding access to free porn I feel I need to quote "Die Hard":
Hans: You ask for miracles, Theo, I give you the F.B.I.
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#23 |
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Eternal Newbie
Respin bullshit press Your Comments Are Welcomed
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Inside your monitor
Posts: 2,850
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I've seen many people saying that this Internext was the largest (as in terms of attendance) they've ever seen.
So my question is, were these all new webmasters, or were they webmasters that have been in the biz for a while but have never attended a convention? As for things shrinking or going away... you guys were saying the same things back in '99. I've been through the old Condom archives and the talk then was exactly like it is now... not enough traffic, too many newbies who don't know what they're doing, prediction of a lot of people going out of business... I honestly think this business is about perseverance and adaptation. Be strong and evolve, or die.
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#24 |
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Polishing the Chrome on Bishops Motorcycle
$100 for every ImLive sign-up
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Hell: Bowels : Level 9
Posts: 4,153
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TGP's are a tougher game these days as well.
I remember back in '99 when a good Hun listing and a couple Buffet family listings were good for 30-40 joins, now it's tougher...more people who have no clue how to make money from the traffic degarding the overall quality. The way we used to make money on TGPs: submit a nice series gallery, use highly descriptive text links and never show hardcore... now we have guys giving away movies... For anyone having problems with TGP's, we've recently opened (but not yet officially announced) http://www.tgpgrunts.com We'll have more (better) samples up shortly. Scooter and I are working on some other designs and layouts. We've discovered that turning your TGP gallery into a full page ad is better than just slopping together a bunch of pictures and a couple banners/text links. This is the common trend with galleries, fpa's and not the same 5 pics, banner, 5 pics, banner format that causes a surfer to simply ignore the banners/ads. I've noticed a lot more sponsors providing hosted galleries. If done correctly these can be more profitable for the sponsor (they have better control voer the advertising message and content) they are making it even harder for the TGP submitter as the TGP owners are often using these hosted galleries and listing them higher than the submittals. -- PS, we also provide hosted gallery templates ;))
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#25 |
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Administrator
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Hoop, I agree with Serge - you are very right, it comes back to theory of relativity - and perspective.
We are working harder then ever for the same amount of $$$. Some companies are having a hard time adjusting. I know we have been looking at ways to cut costs to help our bottom line. We are always adjusting things, it is impossible to do business like we used to in the old days. You have to evolve or you will die out! |
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#26 |
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Members
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Six Feet Under
Posts: 2,150
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SykkBoy - I think you are right regarding TGP submitters getting cut out - there will be less need for them soon.... however I also think that tgps/link list/se etc. will start to loose quality traffic, when paysites get better at networking. The "broad" signup cross selling provided by some processors are just the begining of new ways for paysites to keep more business to themself.
I think alot of companies are getting smaller returns compare to last year, and the year before etc.... and as my old business teacher told me: "If a company isn´t growing, then its dying!" Only real big companies, like General Motors, can blame the economy if their sales are less than last year. All small companies still have market share to conquer from their competition - even when the economy is bad... |
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#27 |
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Fat Fucking Nobody
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Join Date: Oct 2002
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Exactly, you've gotta pay attention to trends and be ready to exploit new opportunities early before all of the copycats pile on and oversaturate the market. Those who are consistently creative and stay in touch with the psychology with the surfer will always be fine. The cream always rises.
My own business looks radically different than it did in 2001 which in turn looked different from 1999 and so on. If you try to coast, your revenue will shrink. I haven't met anyone in the last year or so who has said they're working less and making more money though. Usually quite the opposite. It's just business though....you adapt or die. |
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#28 | |
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Members
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 750
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Quote:
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#29 |
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Prostate Examiner
I quoff fine wine at corkd.com
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: good 'ole USA
Posts: 21,018
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HellPuppy,
when my profit margins started to shrink at the mid 1999, I increased shave factor... is there any room TODAY to increase webmaster' shave?
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#30 | |
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Prostate Examiner
I quoff fine wine at corkd.com
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: good 'ole USA
Posts: 21,018
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Quote:
but unfortunatelly our prediction came true, on a BIG and on a small scale, too bad you can't see it and give us old hogs credit.
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#31 |
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Members
Respin bullshit press Your Comments Are Welcomed
Join Date: Nov 2002
Posts: 2,581
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As far as the number of booths, I would say this one was the biggest. As far as the show floor space, I'd say it's not shrinking, unlike some shows.
As to the number of attendees, while the floor stays the same, the number of booths, albeit smaller, grows, the number of people total is down. Down from Miami and down from the last two years in Vegas. Unless of course people are buying passes and then not using them. Ideas? Innovation? Its not dead. 3 conversations I had at this show made me realize just how alive it is. And just how forethinking it can be. There are still things to get excited about. Theu aren't exit consoles, scrubbing or how much mail you get thru tho. |
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#32 | |
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Members
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: California, USA
Posts: 1,340
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Quote:
But as far as new ideas - big horizons and gold in them thar hills - yup, it's still there. This is still one of the most exciting industries in the world. We ain't seen nuthin' yet!
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#33 | ||
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Members
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 84
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Quote:
Just take a look at www.amateurcamhouse.com, www.pickapicka.com, www.bustyrachel.com. Quote:
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#34 |
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Eternal Newbie
Respin bullshit press Your Comments Are Welcomed
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Inside your monitor
Posts: 2,850
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Serge I most definitely give you "old hogs" (lol) credit!
You're still here, aren't you? And that's my point exactly. You adapted, you persevered, you're still here making money. Granted from what I gather it's nowhere as easy to make the money now as it was back then, but you're still doing it... and I hope that 5 years from now I'll have the same perseverance that you guys did. Back in '97 I considered building porn sites. Morals got in my way. ![]() I was an idiot! The people that amaze me are the ones who have been away for a year, two years, or more... and they're stumped at how to get traffic or why they're not getting the signups they used to get. I see posts all of the time on TNB from someone who is coming back to the biz after a long absence and they are completely lost because nothing works like it used to. Why would they expect it to? I was going to go into a long ramble about things I see that just keep hurting us and things we can and can't do to correct it, but it was so long I just cut it off. I'm sure everyone has their own ideas, it's just getting a majority of the big players to agree enough to risk testing it. If we could get some big people to test something and report back that it's going well, then more would pile on... it's just getting those people to risk it in the first place. I just love this guy...
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#35 | |
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Fat Fucking Nobody
Want to see your own Advertising Here!
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 6,523
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Quote:
There's absolutely no doubt that pumping up the shave to make the numbers work is a practice that is alive and well. And as I've been saying for years, dont count stats, count the checks. I dont care what the formula for payout is or whether it's shaved or not, I send a given amount of a certain type of traffic and get $X in return. Whichever sponsor makes the value of that $X the greatest gets the traffic. Unfortunately the performance changes so rapidly right now that I'm convinced many are changing the shave dynamically...if not randomly. A program may convert well for one two week period and then convert for shit the next even though the tour, the processor and the traffic are all consistent. It's almost like chasing a hot stock, prior performance is not necessarily an indication of future results! As for room to shave more, that depends on the program. There are definitely some out there shaving everyone smooth as a baby's ass already IMO. There's a point there where it makes no financial sense to send any traffic to a program, and you're better served to build your own paysites to feed your traffic to. But hey, there'll always be a couple of thousand newbies willing to send any large program tons of TGP traffic from The Hun no matter what. You just end up with a broth with lots of water in your soup and not a lot of meat! |
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#36 | |
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Members
Want to see your own Advertising Here!
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Location: Down Under
Posts: 5,202
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Quote:
icq me 3422430 i have something that you will be interested in ... especially if you are looking for traffic and/or webmasters to send traffic ;-)
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#37 |
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Guest
Posts: n/a
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Your icq # is wrong, hon, mine's in my profile. Thanks
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#38 |
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Eternal Newbie
Respin bullshit press Your Comments Are Welcomed
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Inside your monitor
Posts: 2,850
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Does anyone see open TGP submissions fading away until they're nonexistent? With the amount of cheaters out there, most TGPs with traffic are switching to partner-only submissions, gallery pools, sponsor-hosted galleries or revshare gallery programs (like Diabolical Galleries).
There's probably at least a dozen new TGPs opening up every day with webmasters using sponsor-hosted galleries (or Choker's trading system). Will this lessen the impact of TGPs as a whole? Without cheaters and fly-by-night submitters who make 50-pic all-hardcore galleries, will the industry finally slow down from its crazed "give away the money shots" runaway train? Speaking of giving away money shots, will sponsors ever put their thinking caps back on and stop handing out free content sets with hardcore in them? I'm not saying use ugly censor circles or artsy stars to cover the action, I'm saying just don't put them in the set whatsoever. If you give it to the webmaster, he'll use it - plain and simple. Joe Surfer gets the whole kit and caboodle, from the tease all the way to the cum shot... then he closes his browser and goes to clean up. No reason for him to join your paysite, he's finished for the evening. You want to blame TGP gallery-makers or free site makers for the glut of free hardcore on the net? Move your finger a little to the left and point it at the people *giving* them this content - the sponsors. When you give a webmaster content, you're telling the webmaster that this type of content should be free. You devalue it. That type of content should only be seen if someone pays for it (both the webmaster and the surfer!) If the webmaster had to *pay* to put those money shots on his galleries, he'd put more of a value on it, and either wouldn't do it, or would put it behind an AVS script where he'd make his money back. Are sponsors going to regain their senses? Visa fees and regulations (you must be incorporated in the US, which means paying taxes in the US, blah blah) shook things up enough that it's still affecting people. Big programs got bigger by acquiring small ones, small programs turned off completely or switched to AVS (lots of amateurs simply moved over to AVS). This raises the "bar of entry" to building a paysite, which is a good thing. But we still haven't seen the full effects all of this is going to take, and we won't until April 15th when it comes time for all of these new US-based businesses to figure out how the hell to pay taxes. Do you think more small programs will disappear (or go AVS) after tax time hits? Do you think iBill is going to survive the huge hit it's taken? Do you think token systems will make a viable comeback? Spam - egads. The amount of spam I get has tripled at least this past year. It's gotten so bad for my hosting clients and I that I am seriously considering dropping Yahoo and Hotmail into my denied email filters. I definitely see a major crack-down of spam coming *soon*. All it's going to take is one mother whose child has seen a double-penetration image in his HTML email to sue her major ISP for not doing enough to filter the legitimate email as part of the service they're providing to her, and the courts are involved. The smart folks are already using double opt-in mailing lists, but even those will become risky eventually. Will a crackdown on spam be a good thing or a bad thing for the industry? Reality sites... the big sponsors' attempt at getting a piece of the amateur's pie. Huge in 2002... still as big in 2003? Or will more sponsors "absorb" single-girl amateur sites (a-la Lightspeed with Nina and Tawny)... or both? Amateurs make a killing selling their own products... worn panties, videotapes of themselves, digital movies of themselves on CD, exclusive content CDs. Will an innovative company step up and help them market these things (videos, not used panties) to the brick and mortar stores? Brick and mortar adult stores... where do you see them in a year? In five years? Still as strong as ever, or extinct as everyone moves on-line? The original topic was conventions... there's some type of webmaster gathering every month at least. Will heavy-hitters like Internext give way to smaller conventions like Cybernet Expo or even smaller, more training-based events like AWE? Will AVN drop back to one show per year?
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#39 |
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cj definitely has something that quite a few people will want to look into -- it's an excellent idea for small to mid size site owners to capitalize on some Aussie brainpower!
Your rant on spam is funny Carrie, before I went to bed tonite (yes I know it's still nite, I slept two hours and bing! it was like time to go play blackjack, my body's having trouble realizing where it is) I told someone -- this year everyone will have their own resource board, their own tgp and their own mailer program ![]() Of course that also means that people will be dropping off some other ideas that have worked for awhile, might be time to do a Nick and start looking at how to take the market thinning and make it work for you... |
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#40 |
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Our industry is in some aspects analagous to the formation of the radio, airline, electric utilities and motor vehicles industries. All had boom/bust consolidation phases. All had periods where the quick-to-market made tons of cash quickly. All had periods where the early-to-market were shaken out. In the radio industry 27 of the first 48 "first radio stations in their state to market" were our of business half a decade later. We've probably done a little better. Many people have one or more of these historical analogies in mind when they discuss the state of the industry. Railroad is another good example.
Some differences are the prevalence of the beer-money warriors, the lack of barriers to entry, and the lack of governmental influence and regulation. (The government won't bail us out and subsidize us). Tropixxx and XPics have come and gone as surely as Pan Am and Eastern Airlines did. Others will too. Nothing bad has happened though. This is completely normal and exactly what many of us expected. Earlier, it was said that you have to work harder today to make the same amount of money. This reminds me of a quote by the Red Queen in Lewis Carroll's "Through the Looking Glass". The quote is ubiquitious in pop-science books today and is used to illustrate the evolutionary arms race. The Red Queen said "in this place it takes all the running you can do to keep in the same place." The "good old days" weren't really that good. It is a selective group of webmasters that remember them; the ones that survived. There were hundreds of webmasters on the boards five years ago that didn't understand the industry then and never did catch on. Remember the "I have a great logo. Why don't I make any money?" posts. How about the many dozens, probably hundreds, of webmasters that said "I'm starting a link site and will be bigger than Persian Kitty"? Some of the older webmasters that left the industry and then come back do run into trouble. Their skill sets matched well with the uneven playing fields of yesterday but don't allow for any differentiation on today's internet porn gridiron. Some of the older webmasters that once did well are not doing as well today. They have to reinvent themselves or maybe even take jobs working for large companies and desire to learn enough from these jobs to maybe venture out once again. I see some webmasters reiventing themselves and doing well and others struggling. Some go into periods of discovery and self-discovery and then re-emerge with new breath. The sky is never falling and you would think Chicken Little would retire by now. How long before she comes and tries to scare us back into the field? All is normal. All is well. Last edited by Colin at Jan 13 2003, 08:28 AM
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#41 |
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so, Colin, you do not believe in vertical integration?
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#42 |
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I didn't learn anything new as far as the state of the industry while in Vegas. Some people were there, some weren't. There were a few noteable missing parties but I heard good explanations
from a few as to why they weren't and think it probably does not indicate any industry-wide trend.
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#43 | |
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Quote:
Where did THAT come from?
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Prostate Examiner
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Quote:
All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:39 AM..
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