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I'm not issuing my major sell signal yet, but we are on the verge of what could be a very powerful 3-4 week sell signal that could/should usher in a mini collapse.
Confirmation is a weekly close below 978 in the SPU3 (Sept S&P futures) and 9154 in the DJIA.
Originally posted by wig@Aug 14 2003, 06:50 AM I'm not issuing my major sell signal yet, but we are on the verge of what could be a very powerful 3-4 week sell signal that could/should usher in a mini collapse.
Confirmation is a weekly close below 978 in the SPU3 (Sept S&P futures) and 9154 in the DJIA.
Originally posted by Colin@Aug 14 2003, 06:53 AM I've been out since 6/2000 and staying out until further notice.
The market is a bloody bitch. Still. ;-)
Colin, if you remember, last year when we were at the lows and several ppl were commenting about it breaking down I said... fuck that, I am buying it right here. I think I also said that we were likely to see the largest rally in years.
I still think we are in the midst of this rally and the upcoming sell-off is simply a correction within an overall advance.
I have some major cycles converging in Oct, but the more I look at it I think the high is going to extend into early 2004.
From there, I expect the sell-off to new lows. (you will know it is the high because ppl will start talking bullish)
As you know, I have been and still am a fan of gold going forward for a few years at least. But, I have also been selective on when and where to buy it.
Given Silvers recent weekly and monthly closes, I believe that you buy any weakness in the metals going into December.
Just pick some good gold funds.
btw, did you know that Warren Buffet owns 20% of the above ground silver in the world? ;-))
Originally posted by wig@Aug 14 2003, 08:10 AM Serge,
As you know, I have been and still am a fan of gold going forward for a few years at least. But, I have also been selective on when and where to buy it.
Given Silvers recent weekly and monthly closes, I believe that you buy any weakness in the metals going into December.
Just pick some good gold funds.
btw, did you know that Warren Buffet owns 20% of the above ground silver in the world? ;-))
..and friend of mine still holds the silver bars he bought in 1982 at $25 per ounce
;_))
Wig I got into NASDEQ in Oct and am up 26.55% so far.
I am not saying there will be a mini collapse, I cannot predict the future. But I do not see it rolling back to far without some really bad news.
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Wig you know the fundementals on of the market much better then I. I do not think the market relies on fundementals as much as you think it does. I think it relies on momentum, and news a lot more then real information.
Of course what do I know? I have been killed over the past 3 years!!
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Originally posted by Mike AI@Aug 14 2003, 10:36 AM Wig you know the fundementals on of the market much better then I. I do not think the market relies on fundementals as much as you think it does. I think it relies on momentum, and news a lot more then real information.
Of course what do I know? I have been killed over the past 3 years!!
MikeAI, you are wrong!
wig is just an opposite from what you describe him, he is 100% TECHNICIAN and ZERO fundamentalist
;-))
OK Serge, I see. I used the wrong terminology.... but he is still relying strictly on numbers and charts. Or am I wrong?
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Originally posted by Mike AI@Aug 14 2003, 10:36 AM Wig you know the fundementals on of the market much better then I. I do not think the market relies on fundementals as much as you think it does. I think it relies on momentum, and news a lot more then real information.
Of course what do I know? I have been killed over the past 3 years!!
Mike, As Ulfie and Serge pointed out, I do not look at fundamentals at all. I am purely a technician and student of history and cycles.
All my decisions are based off of the technical (price and time) structure of the market.
Originally posted by wig@Aug 14 2003, 12:39 PM
Serge, I am sure you know that sympathy is found somewhere in the dictionary between shit and syphillis. ;-))
Seriously, though... there are mining stocks and funds pay dividends.
hahahha!good one, never heard this one before!
;_))
I got some AU at 28.80 (just a thousand shares) and yes, it does pay 6.6% dividend,
I wish I bought 100,000 of it back in a day
;-)))
Originally posted by wig@Aug 14 2003, 12:41 PM News is the tardy recognition of forces that have been at work for some time and are invisible only to people who do not study history.
PEARL!!!!!!!
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Do you have money sitting in the bank making nothing? I will give you 15% annual returns GUARANTEED by contract. Your money is returned within 90-120 days. 100k minimum investment - All slots currently filled - check back later
In the July issue of "Equities" magazine, John Templeton made these quotes:
"The stock market is broken, and it will take some time, maybe years, to repair it."
"Every previous major bear market has been accompanied by a bear market in home prices . . . . This time, home prices have gone up 20%, and this represents a very dangerous situation. When home prices do start down, they will fall remarkably far."
"The total debt of America is now $31 trillion. That is three times the GNP of the U.S. That is unprecedented in a major nation. No nation has ever had such a big debt as America has, and it's bigger than it was at the peak of the stock market boom."
And that is why your money in RE is made when you buy.....not when you sell....
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Originally posted by wig@Aug 14 2003, 12:39 PM [QUOTE
Serge, I am sure you know that sympathy is found somewhere in the dictionary between shit and syphillis. ;-))
QUOTE]
I thought THAT one was the pearl Vick! ;-)
For what you are looking to do Serge, i LIKE the bonds in here!
be sure to buy the LONG ones..... ;-)))
Diamond Jim shoot me an icq sometime! #77941052
thx
Originally posted by Monk+Aug 14 2003, 02:38 PM-->
QUOTE (Monk @ Aug 14 2003, 02:38 PM)
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The market and nature of investors is so different today, I have to wonder if we can really expect to see the same cycles and trends.
20 years ago and before the market was made up mostly of bigtime investors with large holdings and mostly professionally managed money. It's a different ballgame now thanks to the net and discount brokerages.
There's a lot of money out there controlled by individuals who know little about finance and basically treat the market like a very high stake trip to the track. Technology now makes it easy to move money fast. So even the managed money moves more often than it used to.
We have thousands of mutual funds out there. And even those aren't stable. In the past funds pretty much just watched the money come in from various payroll contribution plans and such. Distributions were not common. Now you have people who chase the hot funds and move money in and out of those almost like it was a stock. Most 401K plans even let you move money between funds at will via the web.
I think this makes the market perhaps a lot more reactionary than it has been historically. People chase hot trends and if anything bad happens they panic and try to either lock in profits or stop their losses.
Originally posted by Monk+Aug 14 2003, 04:46 PM-->
QUOTE (Monk @ Aug 14 2003, 04:46 PM)
Quote:
Originally posted by -Diamond Jim@Aug 14 2003, 02:45 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by -Monk@Aug 14 2003, 02:38 PM
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Originally posted by Diamond Jim@Aug 14 2003, 09:13 PM I thought it would be cool to lock in a bunch of rentals while interest rates were this low, but it's more of a pain in the ass than it's worth...
Amen to that. I have a tennant that's 2 months behind in his rent and I'm going to go kick his ass if he doesn't pay me. I think the guy is going to just disappear. I can sue him but it's still up to me to collect the money which will probably never happen. Rental property is a major pain in the ass.
08-14-2003
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