I'm not issuing my major sell signal yet, but we are on the verge of what could be a very powerful 3-4 week sell signal that could/should usher in a mini collapse.

Confirmation is a weekly close below 978 in the SPU3 (Sept S&P futures) and 9154 in the DJIA.

Good luck!

wig,
what about bonds?

1) treas?
2) junk?

I've been out since 6/2000 and staying out until further notice.

The market is a bloody bitch. Still. ;-)

wig,
what about bonds?

1) treas?
2) junk?[/b][/quote]
Serge,

I do not fllow any high yield bonds so I have no opinion. I was short bonds, but got out way too early. ;(

Bonds look weak to me, and I would not be surprised to see the 30 year test 102.23 to 103.23/US in the coming weeks / months.

Colin, if you remember, last year when we were at the lows and several ppl were commenting about it breaking down I said... fuck that, I am buying it right here. I think I also said that we were likely to see the largest rally in years.

I still think we are in the midst of this rally and the upcoming sell-off is simply a correction within an overall advance.

I have some major cycles converging in Oct, but the more I look at it I think the high is going to extend into early 2004.

From there, I expect the sell-off to new lows. (you will know it is the high because ppl will start talking bullish) :D :D

Serge,

I do not fllow any high yield bonds so I have no opinion. I was short bonds, but got out way too early. ;(

Bonds look weak to me, and I would not be surprised to see the 30 year test 102.23 to 103.23/US in the coming weeks / months.[/b][/quote]
I don't have lots of treas per se,
but plenty of junk...and bunch of cash with no place to go.

cash is not exactly king when it earns .47% in MM
;-)))

Serge,

As you know, I have been and still am a fan of gold going forward for a few years at least. But, I have also been selective on when and where to buy it.

Given Silvers recent weekly and monthly closes, I believe that you buy any weakness in the metals going into December.

Just pick some good gold funds.

btw, did you know that Warren Buffet owns 20% of the above ground silver in the world? ;-))

..and friend of mine still holds the silver bars he bought in 1982 at $25 per ounce
;_))

Wig I got into NASDEQ in Oct and am up 26.55% so far.

I am not saying there will be a mini collapse, I cannot predict the future. But I do not see it rolling back to far without some really bad news.

..and friend of mine still holds the silver bars he bought in 1982 at $25 per ounce
;_))[/b][/quote]
Did you tell him that it was buy low, sell high and not the other way around??

Sounds like you are not a believer in metals, Serge. They have performed very well on whole over the last few years. Much better than cash.

Mike, it is my position to try and anticipate market movements. But aren't you stating the obvious?

Just remember the bad news will only be bad news after the fact.

For a small fee, I will tell you where to get out and it will be prior to the sell off. :P

Did you tell him that it was buy low, sell high and not the other way around??

Sounds like you are not a believer in metals, Serge. They have performed very well on whole over the last few years. Much better than cash.[/b][/quote]
wig,
I am a poor man, and as all poor men,
I NEED INCOME, steady income,
and gold doesn't provide it
;-(((

Wig you know the fundementals on of the market much better then I. I do not think the market relies on fundementals as much as you think it does. I think it relies on momentum, and news a lot more then real information.

Of course what do I know? I have been killed over the past 3 years!!

MikeAI, you are wrong!

wig is just an opposite from what you describe him, he is 100% TECHNICIAN and ZERO fundamentalist
;-))

OK Serge, I see. I used the wrong terminology.... but he is still relying strictly on numbers and charts. Or am I wrong?

MikeAI, you are wrong!

wig is just an opposite from what you describe him, he is 100% TECHNICIAN and ZERO fundamentalist
;-))[/b][/quote]
100% true statement. I had a great conversation about technical analysis with wig at Mike's house. Guy knows his stuff.

Mike, As Ulfie and Serge pointed out, I do not look at fundamentals at all. I am purely a technician and student of history and cycles.

All my decisions are based off of the technical (price and time) structure of the market.

As Colin would say... witchcraft. :D

wig,
I am a poor man, and as all poor men,
I NEED INCOME, steady income,
and gold doesn't provide it
;-((([/b][/quote]
Serge, I am sure you know that sympathy is found somewhere in the dictionary between shit and syphillis. ;-))

Seriously, though... there are mining stocks and funds pay dividends.

[/b][/quote]
News is the tardy recognition of forces that have been at work for some time and are invisible only to people who do not study history. :okthumb:

News is the tardy recognition of forces that have been at work for some time and are invisible only to people who do not study history. :okthumb:[/b][/quote]

sounds like elliot wave theory to me :D

I agree stocks are headed way lower in the next few months, bonds too



P.S. you can still get 3/2 (+150) odds betting on the democarts winning the 2004
presedential election at bet365.com

News is the tardy recognition of forces that have been at work for some time and are invisible only to people who do not study history. :okthumb:[/b][/quote]
I took a class on economics in college and the professor acted like technical analysis was only for idiots. I knew right then that I wanted to study it because she WAS an idiot. While I am nowhere near in Wig's league I'm a firm believer that even if you have a basic knowledge of technical analysis it will make you a much smarter investor. I used to get a magazine on technical analysis that was for really hardcore technicians. If you don't have a good background in math forget about trying to read it.

If you're interested, this is it....

http://www.traders.com/Documentation/ORDER...Free_Trial_Copy

hahahha!good one, never heard this one before!
;_))

I got some AU at 28.80 (just a thousand shares) and yes, it does pay 6.6% dividend,
I wish I bought 100,000 of it back in a day
;-)))

PEARL!!!!!!!

Two words....

Real Estate

In the July issue of "Equities" magazine, John Templeton made these quotes:

"The stock market is broken, and it will take some time, maybe years, to repair it."

"Every previous major bear market has been accompanied by a bear market in home prices . . . . This time, home prices have gone up 20%, and this represents a very dangerous situation. When home prices do start down, they will fall remarkably far."

"The total debt of America is now $31 trillion. That is three times the GNP of the U.S. That is unprecedented in a major nation. No nation has ever had such a big debt as America has, and it's bigger than it was at the peak of the stock market boom."

:ph34r:

And that is why your money in RE is made when you buy.....not when you sell....

I thought THAT one was the pearl Vick! ;-)

For what you are looking to do Serge, i LIKE the bonds in here!
be sure to buy the LONG ones..... ;-)))

Diamond Jim shoot me an icq sometime! #77941052
thx

BPJ,

CD Mature
2003
2004
2005
2006
2008
2010
2011
2012
2014
2015
2017
2018


obviously I have a problems with living in 2007, 2009, 2013,
and after 2018

I guess for the years no CD matures,
I'll be going to Costa Rica for a year
;_)))

Buying at the top won't help your chances any!

Buying at the top won't help your chances any![/b][/quote]
There is no real "top" in RE when your time horizon on the deal is 30 days...RE prices just don't move that fast, up or down...

I could fill your 2007 maturity needs with something that fits your criteria.... ;-)
on the way via ICQ

sounds like elliot wave theory to me :D

I agree stocks are headed way lower in the next few months, bonds too



P.S. you can still get 3/2 (+150) odds betting on the democarts winning the 2004
presedential election at bet365.com[/b][/quote]
Matt, yes Bob said something to this effect. I don't think I got it verbatim, but it is true.

Elliott Wave is a good tool, but it is very subjective. I use mostly drummond geometry and gann and some miscellaneous momentum and relative strength indexes. Short term i use certain reversal patterns.

But, my most important study is cycles. It is when the rest of the indicators align with TIMING that separates the men from the boys. :D

There is no real "top" in RE when your time horizon on the deal is 30 days...RE prices just don't move that fast, up or down...[/b][/quote]
Are you just flipping the property over or are you holding it long term?

The market and nature of investors is so different today, I have to wonder if we can really expect to see the same cycles and trends.

20 years ago and before the market was made up mostly of bigtime investors with large holdings and mostly professionally managed money. It's a different ballgame now thanks to the net and discount brokerages.

There's a lot of money out there controlled by individuals who know little about finance and basically treat the market like a very high stake trip to the track. Technology now makes it easy to move money fast. So even the managed money moves more often than it used to.

We have thousands of mutual funds out there. And even those aren't stable. In the past funds pretty much just watched the money come in from various payroll contribution plans and such. Distributions were not common. Now you have people who chase the hot funds and move money in and out of those almost like it was a stock. Most 401K plans even let you move money between funds at will via the web.

I think this makes the market perhaps a lot more reactionary than it has been historically. People chase hot trends and if anything bad happens they panic and try to either lock in profits or stop their losses.

Human nature is Human nature.

Why make it complicated when it is really simple?

Are you just flipping the property over or are you holding it long term?[/b][/quote]
Mostly flipping them, Monk.....it's rare to hold a property longer than 30-45 days...I do hold some rental properties when it's something that will always stay leased (4br w/ pool) and when financing allows for no cash in the property and a positive cash flow...

I thought it would be cool to lock in a bunch of rentals while interest rates were this low, but it's more of a pain in the ass than it's worth... :headwall:

Amen to that. I have a tennant that's 2 months behind in his rent and I'm going to go kick his ass if he doesn't pay me. I think the guy is going to just disappear. I can sue him but it's still up to me to collect the money which will probably never happen. Rental property is a major pain in the ass.