I get that i only indicated but if one of the 3 doors has already been opened that only leaves 2 doors to open.

With 2 possible scenarios..

Door 1 - Goat
Door 2 - Car

I think im gonna head to bed and figure this out when i wake up again lol [/b][/quote]
it was ony once, and not explained in the question:)

this makes no sense. your probability of picking the goat would not stay the same.

instead of 1/3 doors, you have elimiated 1 door, making the new choice 1/2, or 50/50.


You are correct this far.from a mathematical perspective, it would remain constant, since it is still the original problem we are trying to solve. there could be three open doors, and the odds would still be 1/3 for the BMW.

but when you added a personal choice to it,it became a human Logic problem, and logic dictates fluid thinking, and when the third door was open, the logic problem changed. obviously the contestant seeing the goat, would shift the way she thought about the problem. She would not see it as 1/3 she would see it as 1/2 with one door being eliminated. the calculator would see it as 1/3:) [/b][/quote]
grimm,
I could have easily pick a $100 from you by betting you,
but I won't, because you are a good sport and I am SURE you'll see WHY your logic failed,
and YES, this is a VERY hard problem to solve, because the wrong answer is sooooooo obvious!
;-))

Here are the arguments in favor of 1)

When you are presented with the choice of 3 doors,
what are the possible outcomes:

1) you pick BMW
2) you pick goat
3) you pick goat


66% chance that you were wrong on your first original pick,
2 out of 3.
Therefore,
CHANGING your door choice, will lead to positive outcome 2 out of 3 times.

Does it make sence NOW why switching is more beneficial than staying with original choice and NOT equal to 50%????
;-))

..and if you are still not convinced...
imagine 100! doors instead of 3
(logic for 100 doors is the SAME as for 3 or 3,000,000 doors)

you indicated one door and the host opened 98 doors and...
would you assume that you picked the car in 1:100 chance or the other one closed is where BMW is?
;-))))

Oh yeah and.. im stealing this question to ask on GWW lol

very simple,
as I posted in my previous post,
the chances of winni9ng the car by switching your original choice is 66%,
not 50!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! [/b][/quote]
the answer is probably that by switching doors, you extracate yourself from the 2/3 problem, into a whole new logic problem that puts you at 1/2.

so instead of 1/3 shot, you would have a 1/2 shot. its the elimination that is the key. logic dictates that if can readuce your odds by making the switch you should.

an easier way to look at it for me was, what if there were 10 doors, and one by one the tv host opens them, revealing nothing. he stops when he gets to two. your original odds were 1-10, those are still your odds. switching doors would make it 1/2, a more probable shot.


and to think, no math involved

yes i see where my logic failed, i forgot the #1 rule of logic problems, make the set bigger than it is, much easier to see lines on a football field than sistine chapel on the head of a pin.:)

the answer is probably that by switching doors, you extracate yourself from the 2/3 problem, into a whole new logic problem that puts you at 1/2.

so instead of 1/3 shot, you would have a 1/2 shot. its the elimination that is the key. logic dictates that if can readuce your odds by making the switch you should.

an easier way to look at it for me was, what if there were 10 doors, and one by one the tv host opens them, revealing nothing. he stops when he gets to two. your original odds were 1-10, those are still your odds. switching doors would make it 1/2, a more probable shot.


and to think, no math involved [/b][/quote]
very good,
you are now leaning in the right direction except..
if there were 10 doors,
your odds of winning the car on switch would have been...
90%!
;-))))

and yep, you could have snaked 100 bucks off of me there:) my mind works too fast at times.. sometimes the answer is right in front of you:)

hahahah,
good analogy but..
you WERE leaning in the right direction, by bringing 10 doors instead of 3 example
;-)))

pay us royalties, mofo!!!!
;-))))

after snaking over 1/4 of a mil of you,
I can afford leaving you the last $100
;-))))

yep 9/10, not 1/2:)


indeed, expanding it to ten made the answer obvious. i just ten as an arbitrary number, easy to work with.

after snaking over 1/4 of a mil of you,
I can afford leaving you the last $100
;-)))) [/b][/quote]
i wasnt complaining, its all about the bottom line.:).

and you need to add some zeros to that 100:)

I won't,
I pretend it never happened
;-))))

thou shall not steal
;))))


http://forums.gaywidewebmasters.com/showth...49205#post49205

;-))))

thou shall not steal
;))))


http://forums.gaywidewebmasters.com/showth...49205#post49205

;-)))) [/b][/quote]
Haha.

Now im not going to know how many smart guys we have on GWW although i know we have 99% more than on the zoo ;)

Haha.

Now im not going to know how many smart guys we have on GWW although i know we have 99% more than on the zoo ;) [/b][/quote]
Lee,
but the true question is:
can your 99% smarter guys find Afganistan on the map??????


Smart bombs could....
;-))))

You know, to be honest, i dont htink i could even find it on a map :(

Im not all that good with geography, i only got a D grade for that subject :(

Just give them Schroedinger's Cat and let them chew on that:)

as soon as 1 goat door is open, your probability of having picked the right door originally become 1/2, if you pick again, they stay 1/2... (wow, imagine that, probabilities do change)


if the question was: Are the probability better at the time of the second pick than when you made your first pick, than yes, sure....



but a logic problem being tricky only because of how the question is asked isnt much fun... especially when its a russian asking ;)

you still don't get it, do you?
;-))

I am sorry it takes Canadiens longer to comprehend things than to the normal people
;-)))

Ok, there are two goats. One is heading south down I-66 at 140 miles per hour with a 20 mile an hour head wind. Another goat is going north along I-228 at 162 miles an hour with a 41 mile an hour tail wind. Which goat is wearing the beret?

The French one :lol:

The French one :lol: [/b][/quote]
Close! Very close! But it's a trick question. :P

I'd rather ponder Zeller Schwarze Kat myself :okthumb:

This is a famous problem. The answer is so annoyingly counterintuitive that mathematicians were writing Marilyn Savant to tell her she had the answer wrong in her column (she had it right). It also took Paul Erdos, one of the best mathematicians of the 20th century a little while before he agreed with the solution after he gave the wrong answer.

Close! Very close! But it's a trick question. :P [/b][/quote]
Oh in that case..

The one that surrendered ;)

Heres one for you that my daughter and I played with the other night:

Scenario: Pitch black night. 4 men are traveling with one lantern amongst them. They come to a bridge across a very deep ravine. The bridge is only wide enough and strong enough to support 2 of the men at a time. There is no railing or side on the bridge so because of the darkness you cannot go over the bridge without the lantern and furthermore no man dares to go across the bridge without being in actual contact with the lantern.

Man 1 can cross the bridge in 5 minutes
Man 2 can cross the bridge in 10 minutes
Man 3 can cross the bridge in 20 minutes
Man 4 can cross the bridge in 25 minutes

What is the least amount of time that it can take for all 4 men to cross the bridge ?

Bullshit!!!!

The correct answer is:

You bribe the stagehand to signal you which door has the car behind.

Why gamble?


;-))

30 minutes.

You dont say whether they all have to get onto the other side or just 'cross' the bridge ;)

30 minutes.

You dont say whether they all have to get onto the other side or just 'cross' the bridge ;) [/b][/quote]
to the other side smart ass................. and by the rules.....

also you have to be able to explain the way you got the answer too......

Same rules the 7th graders had.


btw, how do you cross the bridge without getting to the other side ?

to the other side smart ass................. and by the rules.....

also you have to be able to explain the way you got the answer too......

Same rules the 7th graders had.


btw, how do you cross the bridge without getting to the other side ? [/b][/quote]
'all' get to the other side..

You could have all four of them cross the bridge once and have 3 on one side and 1 on the other ;)

'all' get to the other side..

You could have all four of them cross the bridge once and have 3 on one side and 1 on the other ;) [/b][/quote]
Nopers...

Lantern has to make it back some how. They cannot go across without the lantern and there is only one lantern.

:nyanya:

edited in: besides, by my reckoning, your solution would still result in at least 40 minutes, not 30 even if the lantern ended up on one side with 3 on one side and the forth on the other..

But the problem needs them to all end up together on the opposite side of the ravine and they all have to use the bridge to get across.

The least amount of time for all 4 men to get across the bridge would be 1 hour and 5 minutes...

Man 1 goes across with Man 2 - 10 mins
Man 1 goes back with the lantern - 5 mins
Man 1 and Man 3 go across - 20 mins
Man 1 goes back - 5 mins
Man 1 and Man 4 go across - 25 mins

The least amount of time for all 4 men to get across the bridge would be 1 hour and 5 minutes...

Man 1 goes across with Man 2 - 10 mins
Man 1 goes back with the lantern - 5 mins
Man 1 and Man 3 go across - 20 mins
Man 1 goes back - 5 mins
Man 1 and Man 4 go across - 25 mins [/b][/quote]
Close but WRONG...

:nyanya:

Close but WRONG...

:nyanya: [/b][/quote]
sneaky...

Man 1 goes across with Man 2 - 10 mins
Man 1 goes back with the lantern - 5 mins
Man 3 and Man 4 go across - 25 mins
Man 2 goes back - 10 mins
Man 1 and Man 2 go across - 10 mins

a la 1 hour

go canada! :rokk:

sigh..

1 and 2 cross over 10 mins
1 returns 5mins
3 and 4 cross 25mins
2 returns 10 mins
1 and 2 cross 10 mins

60 mins.....

Give the man a ceeeeegar....

you probably googled it though :nyanya:

(j/k)

shit beaten by metzo by a hair!!


feck!

;-))