i dont want Wig to be Nastradamaus. That guy scared the shit out of me when i was little. Then i will have to be scared of Wig.

anyone see "the man who saw tomorrow"
:unsure:

Colin,

C'mon, guy.... I am merely expressing a probable time frame, based on prior events of similar magnitude, to watch for a POTENTIAL event.

I am not long "Saddam will lob missiles into Israel" futures contracts.

See the difference? I suspect you have already. :)

Ulfie,

Thanks for expaining it this way.

I have no visions, and I certainly am not psychic. I study history (mostly market history) and I make assessments of probabilities.

Anyone who invests in any market has to base their decisions on something.

:D

JR - how about Hal Lindsey's "The Late Great Planet Earth"? I saw Lindsey on TV just the other day - still predicting the imminent "end of times". I read many such books as a child. I remember in particular that a "survey of psychics" thought a third world war would be fought and they all agreed that 2000 was the Grand Finale. 2000 came and went and it sure scared many. Now, of course it should be obvious to them that they were just projecting their own Cold War fears onto their predictions. I seriously doubt THEY see it that way though.

Edgar Cayce, Jeanne Dixon, Richard Kieninger. What happened?

Colin,

C'mon, guy.... I am merely expressing a probable time frame, based on prior events of similar magnitude, to watch for a POTENTIAL event.

I am not long "Saddam will lob missiles into Israel" futures contracts.

See the difference? I suspect you have already. :)[/b][/quote]
How "potential"? Do you mean there is a 10 % chance an event will occur, 20%, 40%, or what?
What is the baseline? How frequent are events of this magnitude in the Middle East already?

More importantly, what kind of expiration dates can I get on those "Saddam-Israel" contracts?



Last edited by Colin at Nov 18 2002, 11:41 AM

I hope there are no battlefield nukes missing.

Watched that film "Bad Company"with Anthony Hopkins and Chris Rock

i had a girlfriend in high school and after that thought the world would end in 2000. talk about fucking depressing. :(

it was always a toss up between going to see a movie together, or putting a gun in my mouth and pulling the trigger.

How "potential"? Do you mean there is a 10 % chance an event will occur, 20%, 40%, or what?
What is the baseline? How frequent are events of this magnitude in the Middle East already?

More importantly, what kind of expiration dates can I get on those "Saddam-Israel" contracts?[/b][/quote]
I don't rate them. I just remain aware. I also could not care less if a surprise happens or not.

I put my money on the line in various markets, which is more than most people do. :P

The premise that a cycle progression in middle eastern events may parallel markets cycles and events is secondary to the market action itself. Nevertheless, it is worth observation IMO.

Wig,

the stock market is not a zero sum game, broker's fees and exchange fees prevent that.
but it's also not a random walk as some people think.

one word describes the correlation between the middle east and the stock market - OIL.

I'm also interested in the cycle technieques your using, I've studied technical analysis but never turned into a good trader, the psychological part is the hardest part of trading.

How would you even begin to determine that? How do you chart middle-eastern events and then determine that an underlying pattern exists and will consistently repeat? Which middle eastern events and dates are part of this cycle you mention and how do you predict the next one?

Why should such patterns exist for something as vague and humanly defined as "events in the middle east"?

or are you saying you are predicting a movement in the market and speculating that the cause of that would be a middle-eastern event. That would still be the same thing though. You would be able to demonstrate that there is a clear pattern to historical events and that it can be used to predict the future.

Witchcraft!

Hi Jerry,

Yes, this is something that we have discussed many times before at Oprano. I firmly believe that execution is the only thing that will make you a consistent winner.

I do not have the space to explain my cycle theories. I tried briefly to explain it to Colin via email and you can see where that has gone. :D

Colin,

I believe in cycles. I believe that history repeats itself. I believe that cycles are a dynamic, non-linear phenomenon.

To reiterate from my email to you.... "Here is how a perform my analysis for TIME. I use many numbers that are found in nature or have otherwise proven valuable to life (markets). Here are a most of them.... Fibonacci numbers, Gann numbers, Biblical numbers and the summation of these numbers. Also, the multiples and fractions of these numbers. Basically, what I do is stare at the charts and find patterns of TIME between important turning points. I use my base numbers to extrapolate dates in the future and I look for synergy to determine probable points in the future where psychology may change."

There is no "clear" pattern. There is no secret formula. Cycles do not consistently repeat in the same fashion. If they did, life would be a circle and I view it as more of a spiral.

I have simply come to the realization that the repetition (measured by the numbers I use) is too much of an occurence to be mere coincidence.

Therefore, I make assumptions based on probabilities of cycles repeating. Not on the certainty of a cycle repeating. I look for the convergence of many cycles at the same place in future time.

I also do the same thing with price action. Look for probabilities based on repetition. I then combine the two to look for synergy... Or as Gann would say... "where price and time coincide".

I'm sorry if you think it is witchcraft or if you cannot otherwise understand my methodologies. It works for me and I make money using it. But, as we have discussed, as Serge and I have discussed and as Jerry and I have just discussed, it is execution that is the key.

I did not always make money in the markets and have paid a lot of tuition. My ability to make money in the latter part of my 17 years of trading is mostly a part of my execution and not my perception.

It is still easier to predict markets than it is to make money. :D

Colin,

I believe in cycles. I believe that history repeats itself. I believe that cycles are a dynamic, non-linear phenomenon.

To reiterate from my email to you.... "Here is how a perform my analysis for TIME. I use many numbers that are found in nature or have otherwise proven valuable to life (markets). Here are a most of them.... Fibonacci numbers, Gann numbers, Biblical numbers and the summation of these numbers. Also, the multiples and fractions of these numbers. Basically, what I do is stare at the charts and find patterns of TIME between important turning points. I use my base numbers to extrapolate dates in the future and I look for synergy to determine probable points in the future where psychology may change."

There is no "clear" pattern. There is no secret formula. Cycles do not consistently repeat in the same fashion. If they did, life would be a circle and I view it as more of a spiral.

I have simply come to the realization that the repetition (measured by the numbers I use) is too much of an occurence to be mere coincidence.

Therefore, I make assumptions based on probabilities of cycles repeating. Not on the certainty of a cycle repeating. I look for the convergence of many cycles at the same place in future time.

I also do the same thing with price action. Look for probabilities based on repetition. I then combine the two to look for synergy... Or as Gann would say... "where price and time coincide".

I'm sorry if you think it is witchcraft or if you cannot otherwise understand my methodologies. It works for me and I make money using it. But, as we have discussed, as Serge and I have discussed and as Jerry and I have just discussed, it is execution that is the key.

I did not always make money in the markets and have paid a lot of tuition. My ability to make money in the latter part of my 17 years of trading is mostly a part of my execution and not my perception.

It is still easier to predict markets than it is to make money. :D[/b][/quote]
I beleive in this but perhaps a different twist. One one plane it is all spiritual, actually metaphysical. Anyone who has studied the works of Carl Jung know it as synchronicity.

For more info on this:

http://twm.co.nz/ISSS_synchr.html

I've felt a stirring since 1999. I lost sleep, my friends thought I was nuts when I bought a generator, a 250 lb propane tank, wood stove, extra food, etc. I wans't sure if it was Y2K or what but even after Y2K I felt it. I still feel it. 9/11 only made it worse and confirmed my fears. Y2K I wasn't worried about computers but terroist.

I've always watched these things along with astrology.


Ok, I'm a freak!

Ok, I'm a freak!
-----------------


Here Here!!!

:D

Yes, you do!

Oprano is on excellent servers with lots of hard drive space. Space is NOT confining you!

Did you see this?

Leonids Meteor Shower: Nov. 15-20

While last year's Leonids provided stargazers with a big display, this year's shower is expected to be even more spectacular. Viewing should be good from midnight to dawn, but the peak of activity will occur between 5-5:30AM EST on the morning of the 19th. At that time you can expect to see roughly 40 meteors per minute blazing across the sky.

If you don't see it now you won't until 2098- I wonder what that means? Notice the dates.

I watched them last year from my bedroom deck and WOW! I'll be there again tonight to watch them!! :D

Leonids Meteor Shower: Nov. 15-20

While last year's Leonids provided stargazers with a big display, this year's shower is expected to be even more spectacular. Viewing should be good from midnight to dawn, but the peak of activity will occur between 5-5:30AM EST on the morning of the 19th. At that time you can expect to see roughly 40 meteors per minute blazing across the sky.

In case you didn't know.

Funny how this lines up with Wig's dates, huh?

You are correct. Time and desire is confining me.

Not to mention the merry-go-round we are on is quite boring. :zzz:

Wig, you predicting a market pull back for Nov-Dec and than a nice pop in January ??


Doesnt it happen like that about 7 out of 10 years ??

Same goes for your july and October predictions, July is ussually the weekest month with low trading valunes and stocks can just sink like shit.

I've fallowed your predictions and i gotta admit i was impressed, but how much of it is regular seasonal stuff. ?

today Leonid's Meteor Shower flew by my sky

my dad's name is Leonid

today is also his birthday


I've yet to figure out the meaning to that coinsidence....

Slav - speaking of coincidences:

How many people in a room before the odds are better than 50% than 2 will share a birthday?

How many people do you have to be in a room with before the odds are better than 50% that someone shares YOUR birthday?

Anyone may play. :-)

Colin,
I think I'll ask Jim Barnett to answer this one
;-)))

547 ??


how many days in a year are there ??



Last edited by slavdogg at Nov 18 2002, 07:44 PM

Slav,

Here are the major turning points based on extreme highs / lows since 1990.

1990 - July high and Oct low
1991 - Mar high and Aug low
1992 - May high and Oct low
1993 - grinded higher all year
1994 - Jan high and april low
1995 - moved higher whole year
1996 - May high and July low
1997 - Feb high, April low, July high and Oct low
1998 - July high and Sept low
1999 - Aug high and Oct low
2000 - Jan high, March low, April high, Sept low and Oct low
2001 - March low, May high and Sept low
2002 - March high, July low and Oct low

As one can see, your observation about these months has some validity as turning points. However, 1990, 1997 and 1998 held July highs while 1996 and 2002 held July lows. October held lows in 90, 92, 97, 99, 00 and 02. No distinct highs were registered in October in the last 12 years.

Of course, this is in the Dow and other equity markets may be different. It may also be different if you looked at closing highs / lows.

I don't know if I can atribute any of this to regular seasonal trends and be consistent. Selling (or buying) in advance of some of these months would have got it shoved straight up ones ass.

What I do know is this. If I look back at all the major turning points in the past and then extrapolate into the future using the numbers I have discussed, one thing is clear.... you either have a synergy at a certain date in the future or you do not.

In other words. If 144 days from this high and 7 years from this low and 30 months from this high and 14 weeks from this low and 84 weeks from this low and 60 years from that low, etc., etc. all happen to point to Sept - Oct 2003 you can rest assured there is a high probability of psychology changing in this date range.

This in essence is what I do. I extrapolate certain numbers into the future and look for synergy.

Of course, this is only half of the puzzle. The other half consists of price. Here I do similar analysis using Elliott Wave and Drummond geometry.

Then, when I find areas where price and time converge, I feel like I have the probabilities necessary to take a position.

And, here's the trick. It is fairly easy to forecast time in advance, while price is usually best forecast using the most recent action. It is also necessary to use this price action to determine if a cycle point is going to be a high or low. Sometimes, what I originally think will be a high ends up being a low. Price action and structure is always the determining factor.

In other words, each day a new piece of the puzzle is turned over which either is confirming or negating a certain scenario. As a result, a trader must be very objective so he can allow the market to "speak" to him.

This is where I think fundamentals breakdown. Fundamentals are the study of the "cause" of events while technical analysis is the study of the events themselves. If a economist believes that if Greenspan cuts rates the market will go up and then Greenspan cuts rates and the market drops, the economist does not know where he is wrong. The market may continue to go down while the reason he bought still suggests up.

In TA, something would have been visibly changed forcing the trader to adjust.

I have obviously simplified much of this, but it would really take up a lot of time to try and detail it all. Plus, so much of it is in my head and I usually cannot access it all at once. :)

183

wrong!!!!!!!!!!!!

damn serge, you would have to post before I could correct myself. I WAY oversimplified that one.

Gimme a minute.

wig, i was looking though my memory of closing highs / lows.

what are you looking at ??

Shall I ruin it..or just say ....................Richard von Mises :moon:

I am looking at extremes. The highest high and lowest lows in relation to the most prominent swings (highs / lows) in each year.

OK, I don't have a calculator but the first person's birthday could be anyone of 365 days in the year (ignoring leapyear). The second person could have any of 364 days as his birthday without being the same as the first guys (364/365). The third guy could have any of 363 days as his birthday without being the same as EITHER of the first 2 guys (363/365)
So, you would multiply these fractions until the result was less than 50% (because this calculates the chances that the any 2 birthdays are NOT the same).

To figure out how many people it would take before the chances are >50% that someone matches YOUR birthday, you would do the same thing, except you would keep using 364/365.

Yes?

A lot of big earning webmasters have a lot of time on their hands ;)

Don't we? :agrin: