Colin, Monk, wig, stats gurus, where can I find

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charts with everage USA/Japan/Germany age from about 1980 to today?

I _think_ I spotted correlation between the age of population and interest rates in the country.

If I am correct, interest rates won't go sky high any time soon.

[Almighty Colin]

If you spotted a correlation, aren't you already looking at the data?

Anyway. here's a chart of the US median from 1860 and projected to 2050.
http://iucar.iu.edu/geninfo/demo/medage.html

[Almighty Colin]

Here's a nice one for 1929-1994, Serge.

http://scholar.lib.vt.edu/theses/available...ted/CHAP2-3.PDF

[Almighty Colin]

Here you go, Serge.

http://healthguide.kihasa.re.kr/eng/statis.../sts100008.html

(median again but for all 3 of those countries)

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Originally posted by Colin@Apr 18 2004, 08:25 AM
If you spotted a correlation, aren't you already looking at the data?

Anyway. here's a chart of the US median from 1860 and projected to 2050.
http://iucar.iu.edu/geninfo/demo/medage.html

no, I wasn't looking,
it was just a pure hunch and your chart is confirming it.

now...take a look at



which is a chart of interest rates over the last 25 years.

interest rates are inverse with average age of population.

I _think_ the reason for it is:
when we are young, we taking more risks, invest in stocks but with age,
we are getting more conservative and looking for ways to lend money instead of investing in the industry.

there is abundance of money in USA and with population getting older, the supply of money to borrow will only increase, thus preasure the interest rates which are the PRICE of borrowing money,
supply and demand.

With China supplying cheap labor and finished goods,
the inflationary preasures are in check.


resume:
buy quality bonds on the dips, collect the interest and lock in longer terms.


does it make sense?

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Originally posted by Colin@Apr 18 2004, 08:31 AM
Here you go, Serge.

http://healthguide.kihasa.re.kr/eng/statis.../sts100008.html

(median again but for all 3 of those countries)

very good one...
Turkey - VERY young population, interest rates are HIGH,
Japan is very OLD and interest rates are close to ZERO

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australians are younger than americans...
cj, what are the interest rates climate in Australia?

If I am correct in my thinking, the rates in Australia are HIGHER than they are in USA

[Mike AI]

Serge and Colin, I think ya'll should look more into it and write an article - bet you can get into the economist!!

There are so many ways to look at the economy. One big issue that always scares me is the personal household debt of this country. The number is stagering.

I also do not put faith in normal cycles because of federal gov't intervention.

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Mike, household debt is also shows me that the interest rates have no other way to go but DOWN....as more and more people reach the stage where they are inelligable for more borrowing.

[Monk]

A. maybe instead of the population age affecting interest rates... it is the interest rates affecting the population. Does it matter? Maybe not.. but if it is this way then we will see interest rates turn before average age turns.

B. I think you need a much longer time frame than 25 years as financial markets are thought by many to go in 20-ish year cycles.

C. If they ARE tied together inversely, what if we are at a top of the average age cycle? If it starts going down today... won't interest rates go up?

D. Was there a huge drop in the average age when interest rates skyrocketd in the 70's / early 80's? If not, then this tool can not be used with any certainty to predict interest rates.

E. Maybe they just happen to be 2 trends going in opposite directions and there is no connection at all? Maybe the average temperature for the last 25 years could be plotted inversely against interest rates too?



Last edited by Monk at Apr 18 2004, 10:40 AM

[cj]

Originally posted by Serge_Oprano@Apr 18 2004, 08:41 AM
australians are younger than americans...
cj, what are the interest rates climate in Australia?

If I am correct in my thinking, the rates in Australia are HIGHER than they are in USA

interest rates have been good lately but risen in the last 12 months.
http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/data.exe/...e/rba/firmmcm11

this has a few graphs on it about age of owners of shares etc
http://www.asx.com.au/shareholder/pdf/Shar...nership2002.pdf

and
http://www.abs.gov.au/Ausstats/abs@.nsf/0/...c1?OpenDocument

AGEING POPULATION

The median age of the Australian population, the age at which half the population is older and half is younger, has increased by 5.9 years in the last 20 years from 30.2 years at 30 June 1983 to 36.1 years at 30 June 2003. Between 30 June 2002 and 2003 there was an increase in the median age of 0.2 years. Australia's population is ageing because of a sustained low level of fertility, which has resulted in proportionally fewer children in the population, and increased life expectancy.

interest rates have risen .7% since the median age went up .2 years ...

you'll have to look deeper to back your numbers :P

this thing is cool, population pyramid ... http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbpyr.html

[cj]

or .... interest rates were at their lowest for a while (4.25%) during these 'stats' announcements in 2001 .....

from: http://media.pearson.com.au/schools/cw/atl...2-1/bnaging.htm

The median age of the Australian population, the age at which half of the population is older and half is younger, was 35.4 years in June 2001, an increase of 5.8 years over the past twenty years.

During the twelve months to June 2001, the number of children aged 0–14 years increased by just 0.03%, the number of people aged 15–64 years increased by 1.4% while those aged 65 years and over increased by 1.8%. The greatest population increase in the twelve months to June 2001 occurred in the 85 years and over age group which increased by 5.7%. Australia’s population as a whole increased by 1.2% or 229 500 people.

Over the past twenty years, low fertility levels have resulted in minimal growth in the number of children aged 0–14 years (5%). In contrast, the number of persons aged 15–64 years has increased by 34%, those aged 65 years and over have increased by 65%, with those aged 85 years and over showing the greatest increase (156%).

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Originally posted by Monk@Apr 18 2004, 10:27 AM
A. maybe instead of the population age affecting interest rates... it is the interest rates affecting the population. Does it matter? Maybe not.. but if it is this way then we will see interest rates turn before average age turns.

B. I think you need a much longer time frame than 25 years as financial markets are thought by many to go in 20-ish year cycles.

C. If they ARE tied together inversely, what if we are at a top of the average age cycle? If it starts going down today... won't interest rates go up?

D. Was there a huge drop in the average age when interest rates skyrocketd in the 70's / early 80's? If not, then this tool can not be used with any certainty to predict interest rates.

E. Maybe they just happen to be 2 trends going in opposite directions and there is no connection at all? Maybe the average temperature for the last 25 years could be plotted inversely against interest rates too?

Monk,
plot into your questions the baby boom effect and all will fall in it's place.

there is a certain delay between age/interest rates, as new borns do not invest, it takes them time to acumulate wealth to invest.

your questions seem to confirm my THEORY,
and so are cj's.

the KEY thing is:
when TREND is established,
the tail follows the head and cj's numbers eem to confirm that as well.

I am NOT claiming to be 100% right or take in conciderations all the factors, but....
I am ONLY interested in the whole thing from perspective of which maturities overweight in the porfolios and I'll be putting big chunks in longer maturitis vs short maturities which might NOT find interest rates better at re-investment times....

I also found interesting correlation:
the HIGHER the credit rating of the securities in the bunch,
the more they appreciated in price,
even though they pay less dividends than closer to junk bonds

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cj,
where can i find time/average age chart of OZ popuylation over the last 30 years and
time/rates of OZ long term treasuries?

I'd like to superimpose them and see
1) channel;s the rates are in
2) aging progression in time

[Monk]

Originally posted by Serge_Oprano@Apr 18 2004, 12:49 PM
your questions seem to confirm my THEORY,
and so are cj's.

how does this confirm your theory?

D. Was there a huge drop in the average age when interest rates skyrocketd in the 70's / early 80's? If not, then this tool can not be used with any certainty to predict interest rates.

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Originally posted by Monk+Apr 18 2004, 03:17 PM-->