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Originally posted by wig@Dec 4 2003, 07:59 AM hehe always a good plan.
:P
well, the extension of me being affected by the dollar is obvious-
I travel alot.
so...necessity is the mother of invention and ratrher than pay 50% more than 18 months ago,
I found new ways to travel abroad and make it even better, regardless of the rate
;_))
Originally posted by wig@Dec 4 2003, 02:14 PM Hmmm... interesting that we have just reached what I would describe as an intermediate low in the dollar.
I can invision a rally back to 102 - 104 going into mid 2004 before the bear market takes hold again.
I agree a pull back is due, but a movement to 103 would break the trend..
I see it falling back to good support at around 114 Dec/Jan before advancing towards 130 in the first quarter..
__________________ Quick Buck"Value and buy domains not for what they did yesterday or today, but rather for what they can be built to do in the future."
Originally posted by Meni@Dec 4 2003, 08:54 AM I checked today, my dollar is still a dollar
I bought 2 candy bars for 49 cents each
i got 2 cents back
thats 100 cents
In 1930, my grandfather bought those same candy bars for 2 cents each.
Brussels is in a power struggle with the EU ministers. Lately when Brussels wanted to fine France and Germany because of their budgets, then the EU minister council said "oh well, lets bends budget rules for France and Germany". So France and Germany didn´t get any fines.
I´m sure if some German or French president wanted to impose currency controls, then they would do it. And with France and Germany loosing jobs because of weak exports, then its likely they will do something (or atleast try).
__________________ "Chaos is the law of nature, order is the dream of man."
~Henry B. Adams (Historian) 1838-1918
2) Know, as we all know, the central banks of the world are doing everything they can to ensure they will never have to go back on the gold standard -- after all, fiat money inflation is the best way to steal from citizens. Russia, miraculously, seems to be bucking this trend and actually buying reserves. In that effort, they have been dumping gold and leasing out gold reserves at below the market rate of interest to keep the price of gold down. But, look at the price of gold -- people in the know are already hedging against the impending, inevitable inflation.
3) There is talk that OPEC will switch to the Euro from the Dollar as the medium for exchange for all oil transactions. This would significantly reduce the demand for dollars, and the supply of dollars being what it is, the price of the dollar would plummet.
The dollar is gonna get creamed (more than it already has).
Originally posted by wig@Dec 4 2003, 02:11 PM Buff,
I won't take issue with your analysis. I too believe the US dollar is the midst of a bear market that will last into 2006 at the least, BUT...
The Fed has been creating money steadily for a long time. Why did the Dollar peak in 2002 and not sooner?
Wig, most Americans have never even heard the words Partial Reserve Banking System, much less know what it is. Fewer have any idea what the Federal Reserve Board actually does aside from setting an interest rate.
But even for those of us who do know, we know it takes time for all that new money to work its way through a system. First the big banks get it, then they lend it out mostly to financial institutions who in turn lend it to other financial institutions and capital investment lenders and businesses.
Then these lending institutions, looking for a return on all that new money, lend it at low rates for startup capital for new businesses or as loans for expansion for established ones. And business can hardly pass up these monster loans at low price (low interest rate), so they borrow and produce more goods and services (by employing more people and buying more capital and equipment and other factors of production) -- and the economy looks like it's growing.
But, of course, we get a bust when it turns out the demand for these new/extra goods and services never really existed -- it was all a monetary phenomenon brought about by expansive monetary policy. Inventories pile up, business cuts back, workers lose jobs, etc.
In other words, it takes a while for the inflation to be recognized recognized.
Mark my words: the dollar is gonna keep dropping and gold is gonna keep climbing.
If you're a betting man, shorting 10 year bonds would be a good idea -- as inflation jumps, so to will interest rates, and bond prices will plummet.
Sucks for me. I live in Australia and i'm earning about thirty percent less than i would be if it was back at a reasonable level. It is funny to see Australian politicians making out that they're responsible for this massive surge in the Australian dollar, and sure, while the Australian economy has improved a little recently, it's almost negligble compared to the slump of the US dollar.
Can't help but notice that they're not pointing out the huge gains on the euro or anything. haha.
Originally posted by gold4dinar@Dec 5 2003, 01:38 PM just a tip, this is what I think next few years hold for the EURO "large fast retracement down"
to like 1.02
pull up a MONTHLY chart of the last 4-5 years....and a 30minute charte of NOW...how this 30minute chart plays out over next few days is exactly what the monthly EURO chart will do
has the same exact chart pattern.
Originally posted by gold4dinar@Dec 5 2003, 01:53 PM pull up a MONTHLY chart of the last 4-5 years....and a 30minute charte of NOW...how this 30minute chart plays out over next few days is exactly what the monthly EURO chart will do
has the same exact chart pattern.
well...from where I am sitting...
if Euro falls - good, traveling will be cheaper.
if Euro rises, I'll be forced to make more $$ to compensate...
I once managed an office of 30 Series 3 Futures/Options brokers; even with all the research available to me, my personal account was almost always on "life support".
For what little it's worth----check out my Feb, 2003 column at my www.davecummings.com. I wrote that column in early Feb while the DJIA was around 8200, and felt like we'd see a rally by the end of this year. I cautioned then, as I continue to do now, that the price of crude oil was a key factor in inflation--it still is, in my opinion; and, with the way the FED has printed and distributed dollars, it's weaked the dollar considerably and has worried me that we could see inflation increases in 2004. Traditionally, the Fed fights inflation (defined as more money chasing the same goods and services, thus raising prices) by raising interest rates to dampen demand, thus making more goods and services available at cheaper prices. Higher rates often translates into more demand for dollar-denominated financial instruments, thus strengthening the dollar.
With crude still in the $30+ range, instead of the $25-28 that I think we need in order to sidestep energy inflationary pressures, and with the ready availability of cheap dollars and low interest rates to spur our economy and corporate earnings thus possibly giving the FED reason to raise interest rates and shut off the printing presses, I predict considerably better days for the dollar by this time next year. I'd buy the dollar index and/or short the 5 and 10-year notes and possibly the Euro. Interest rates and the PRICE of financial instruments work inversely--thus, higher rates usually means falling prices for notes/bonds.
But, what the heck do I know---keep in mind that I've been on the wrong side of trades most of my last 15 years of life; hell, I can even afford a comb and brush:-)))
Originally posted by davecummings@Dec 5 2003, 09:27 PM With crude still in the $30+ range, instead of the $25-28 that I think we need in order to sidestep energy inflationary pressures, and with the ready availability of cheap dollars and low interest rates to spur our economy and corporate earnings thus possibly giving the FED reason to raise interest rates and shut off the printing presses, I predict considerably better days for the dollar by this time next year.
You're right about the availability of cheap dollars, but no one is taking up the offer.
Look at the latest M2 figures.
the money supply has been decreasing lately. I don't really know what to make of it.
It's hard to see the USD turning around any time soon. The pressures on the current account are so high, there's the Iraq money hole, ther prospect of Bush 'buying votes', uncertainty over trade tariffs over textiles with China. Also the trend and general sentiment are against it
I hope the Fed start raising overnight rates sooner rather than later. With gold (an inflation hedge) over $400 there are some alarm bells on the distant horizon.
12-04-2003
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