Will Sadam Strike First?

[Forest]

with war looming and Sadam's life expectancy getting shorter by the minute dont you think thats his best move now?

he is moving SCUDS and other arms close to south west area of Iraq closest to israel as well as south east near the Kuwaiti borader and our troops.

If he can kill 2-3k Israelis with a Scud Bio/Chem attack dont you think they will retaliate with simialr force and POSSIBLY tactical nukes.

This could change the whole scenario in the middle east and the war if the israeli's get involved

[XXXManager]

Originally posted by Forest@Mar 16 2003, 06:28 AM
...If he can kill 2-3k Israelis with a Scud Bio/Chem attack dont you think they will retaliate with simialr force and POSSIBLY tactical nukes.
This could change the whole scenario in the middle east and the war if the israeli's get involved

Actually no one knows how many people he can kill if he manages to get his Scuds over to Israel.
The mere speculation and pondering indicates how much Saddam is not to be taken lightly. Why would striking Israel is considered a valid first strike? Israel has stated no official stand as to the war. Israel will not take part in this war as it didn't in the last - EVEN though it was striked.
If Saddam manages to get Bio/Chem Scuds to israel it potentially can cause more than 2-3K deaths.
In such a case I can tell you that: The official stand of Israel is that if striked it will know how to respond. Not only that - but if striked it WILL respond. This is a very very different stand than the previus war. Not only this but Israel official stand this time is that if striken with non-conventioal weapons it does NOT rule out use of any means.

The following is only my personal opinion: I wish Saddam will not try to strike Israel. I can also tell you that I wish if attacked - it will be conventional weapon and in that case I hope Israel can do the right thing (whatever it is). Last I will say - if striken with non-conventional weapons, "god" helps this region and Iraq. If anything - Israel should act out of relatiation and deterrant motives.
Unlike the UN and some people and countries around the western- I do not think the world is a happy and good place that if hit you should smile and give the other cheek and smile hoping everything will be ok cause there is no evil in it. Especially in the ME region - most people see inaction as a sign of weakness and weakness as a call for further attacks. This is a concept and "philosophy" that is mostly hard for western people to understand.

[Mike AI]

If I was Saddam I would strike first, to cause chaos.

However, I think Saddam really thinks he can hold off American forces. He needs International Support - he cannot get this if he attacks first. So he will wait for US to attack, then he will go crazy and start launching anything he can. Saddam knows he cannot WIN, BUT he thinks he can bog the US down, and maybe hold out and remain in power.

His strategy for this would be to inflict as many casualties on the US as possible, trying to make war unpopular at home in US. Also create tons of civilian casualties - blaming them all on us, and try to get international support against the US to end the war. He thus cannot attack first.

The problem with his faulty thinking, is that its going to happen so fast, so quick there will be no time to cause the kind of casualties he thinks he can. Also this Country and the President are strong minded people, and will not back down from casualties, and opinions of those like France.

But this is my opinion.....

[TheEnforcer]

If he was even halfway intelligent he would have already launched some type of strike by now cause once we start it will be EXTREMELY difficult for him to launch one that could be even close to half as effective as if he did before we started.

[Naughty]

Whatever happens, I am glad I do not live in a big US city right now

[Almighty Colin]

Originally posted by Naughty@Mar 19 2003, 08:13 AM
Whatever happens, I am glad I do not live in a big US city right now

I'm glad I do!

[Forest]

Originally posted by Mike AI@Mar 18 2003, 05:10 PM
If I was Saddam I would strike first, to cause chaos.

However, I think Saddam really thinks he can hold off American forces. He needs International Support - he cannot get this if he attacks first. So he will wait for US to attack, then he will go crazy and start launching anything he can. Saddam knows he cannot WIN, BUT he thinks he can bog the US down, and maybe hold out and remain in power.

His strategy for this would be to inflict as many casualties on the US as possible, trying to make war unpopular at home in US. Also create tons of civilian casualties - blaming them all on us, and try to get international support against the US to end the war. He thus cannot attack first.

The problem with his faulty thinking, is that its going to happen so fast, so quick there will be no time to cause the kind of casualties he thinks he can. Also this Country and the President are strong minded people, and will not back down from casualties, and opinions of those like France.

But this is my opinion.....

Mike
Im afraid we are going to see somehting from him in the next 24 hours

he is filling trenches with oil

he has created a LAKE of oil over a mile long in the desert south of bagdad

He will launch an attack soon i fear

then he will truley show his cards and what type of chemical/bio weapons he has

then we can tell the french and the UN we told you so

[Trev]

Originally posted by Forest@Mar 19 2003, 01:19 PM
Mike
Im afraid we are going to see somehting from him in the next 24 hours

he is filling trenches with oil

he has created a LAKE of oil over a mile long in the desert south of bagdad

He will launch an attack soon i fear

then he will truley show his cards and what type of chemical/bio weapons he has

then we can tell the french and the UN we told you so

He can't launch an attack without loosing all the support from the Security Council and the other Arab nations such as Saudi... he'll most likely wait until we make our move, then throw whatever he can at us and other nations such a Israel, as he's been massing forces near their borders.

Where did you get the info on the oil? I'd like to read about that...

[Peaches]

Originally posted by Colin+Mar 19 2003, 09:15 AM-->