"Web 2.0 is Fucked"

[Hell Puppy]

The fundamental problem here is people keep trying to apply "media" concepts to the web. You keep hearing terms like "publisher", "advertiser", "subscriber", etc.

And most of the business model visions are in turn done with the same thought pattern as TV, magazines, newspapers, etc.

The web is a totally different animal....if you keep trying to treat it as "media" only, you're doomed to repeat the same failures over and over.

I'm not saying advertising driven content production is a totally dead model, but there are some realistic limits in what can be sustained, and they do not support some of the valuations we continue to see on things like Digg. If nothing else, consider how quickly become "ad blind". When you surf do you even see a 460x80 banner now? They're there, but my brain doesn't register them, it has learned that's an ad zone and bypasses it to go right to what it is really looking for. Interstitials and such are just more obnoxious...you still cant force me to read it, all you do is piss me off while my brain is rapidly searching for the "close" link.

I have thoughts on where all this goes, but see my earlier threads about giving away secrets, and I've been submerged working on this one for about 12-18 months.