How will the recession effect our industry?

[Hell Puppy]

Originally Posted by EmporerEJ

Stareware, and a bunch of other "BBS ready" content with full licensing rights....

Giffy Girls!

All those predate the cut off for 2257 as well.

[Hell Puppy]

There are three things that have allowed these things to come to be:

1) User demand -- there is and always be strong demand for free porn and the more you give away and the easier you make it the more people will come.

2) Cheap pipe -- pipe keeps going down. we didn't give away much when a dedicated server with a couple of megabits cost $2500. price went down, we had picposts. price went down some more thumbposts. more? mgp's. Now? tube sites. Anyone wanna bet against DVD rips next?

3) Monetization -- users will share stuff, but someone somewhere has to pay the server bill no matter how much of a bargain the pipe is. some of these guys hanging out in the top 100 of alexa are still paying thru the nose. they aren't doing it for charity, they're making money. The site tony posted as an example had the "usual suspects" for advertisers.

So what do you do?

Hard to fight it, the genie is out of the bottle. They have traffic, someone will ALWAYS be willing to pay for the traffic. Individual copyright holders can certain vigorously enforce their rights. But that is a game of whack-a-mole and a drop in the bucket. There might be some overall action taken by government, ftc or whatnot, but by the time that happens it's irrelevent.

Cant beat it join it? Some have, some more will. Is there a legitimate way to do this? You bet. Same as there was with TGP's. Those who can do it well will make good money due to the traffic. Those who dont will wonder either why they cant get traffic or why they cant pay the bandwidth bill. Or why they are getting their ass sued off. Content producers should be working toward embedded digital watermarks so those who desire to be legitimate for tubes, p2p, etc, can check and see if the copyright holder desires a clip to be broadcast.

Imagine a world where you could electronically tell the difference between trailers and promotional material versus actual content? Wow, I can think of some hellacious business plans for that. For now you can only do it with heavy moderation or restricted posting, lots of manual labor required, but you can run one of these legitimately. YouTube is trying, as are others.

The rest of us have to adapt. There has an always will be free porn. In fact there will always be more and more of it as bandwidth allows. You can easily track this all the way back to the BBS days. So how do you get people to pay when they can have so much for free? You've gotta market and sell WHY they should pay. Exclusive content, friendly well organized UI, no malware or intrusive ads, and quality quality quality. The big things these tube sites can NEVER offer is full on high-def quality. You have to find a way to give users a taste of that without giving away the farm to make them want more quality and less of the jerky flash crap from the tubes.

Also realize you can NEVER force anyone to buy something. There are certain people in this world who have more time than money and will never pay for porn. This is probably 90%+ of the people who visit your sites. You have to get over there, nothing you'll ever do to convert those, let 'em go, filter 'em.

Now if I come across here as being in favor of tube sites and free porn, I'm not. I'd love nothing more than a world where you cant see a nipple without a credit card. But I live in reality. We've been dealing with more and more free porn for 20+ years going back to the BBS days. I've been making money selling it that entire time. You've gotta adapt.

[tony404]

Originally Posted by Hell Puppy

There are three things that have allowed these things to come to be:

1) User demand -- there is and always be strong demand for free porn and the more you give away and the easier you make it the more people will come.

2) Cheap pipe -- pipe keeps going down. we didn't give away much when a dedicated server with a couple of megabits cost $2500. price went down, we had picposts. price went down some more thumbposts. more? mgp's. Now? tube sites. Anyone wanna bet against DVD rips next?

3) Monetization -- users will share stuff, but someone somewhere has to pay the server bill no matter how much of a bargain the pipe is. some of these guys hanging out in the top 100 of alexa are still paying thru the nose. they aren't doing it for charity, they're making money. The site tony posted as an example had the "usual suspects" for advertisers.

So what do you do?

Hard to fight it, the genie is out of the bottle. They have traffic, someone will ALWAYS be willing to pay for the traffic. Individual copyright holders can certain vigorously enforce their rights. But that is a game of whack-a-mole and a drop in the bucket. There might be some overall action taken by government, ftc or whatnot, but by the time that happens it's irrelevent.

Cant beat it join it? Some have, some more will. Is there a legitimate way to do this? You bet. Same as there was with TGP's. Those who can do it well will make good money due to the traffic. Those who dont will wonder either why they cant get traffic or why they cant pay the bandwidth bill. Or why they are getting their ass sued off. Content producers should be working toward embedded digital watermarks so those who desire to be legitimate for tubes, p2p, etc, can check and see if the copyright holder desires a clip to be broadcast.

Imagine a world where you could electronically tell the difference between trailers and promotional material versus actual content? Wow, I can think of some hellacious business plans for that. For now you can only do it with heavy moderation or restricted posting, lots of manual labor required, but you can run one of these legitimately. YouTube is trying, as are others.

The rest of us have to adapt. There has an always will be free porn. In fact there will always be more and more of it as bandwidth allows. You can easily track this all the way back to the BBS days. So how do you get people to pay when they can have so much for free? You've gotta market and sell WHY they should pay. Exclusive content, friendly well organized UI, no malware or intrusive ads, and quality quality quality. The big things these tube sites can NEVER offer is full on high-def quality. You have to find a way to give users a taste of that without giving away the farm to make them want more quality and less of the jerky flash crap from the tubes.

Also realize you can NEVER force anyone to buy something. There are certain people in this world who have more time than money and will never pay for porn. This is probably 90%+ of the people who visit your sites. You have to get over there, nothing you'll ever do to convert those, let 'em go, filter 'em.

Now if I come across here as being in favor of tube sites and free porn, I'm not. I'd love nothing more than a world where you cant see a nipple without a credit card. But I live in reality. We've been dealing with more and more free porn for 20+ years going back to the BBS days. I've been making money selling it that entire time. You've gotta adapt.

How do you adapt to a site full of 15 min+ scenes for free that's just a click away?
People forget 60% percent of the video experience is sound. Thats why youtube does so well, the picture may suck but the sound is good. Same with adult tubes. The thing that may bring the house of cards down is the goldman suit. Ron Goldman's father owns the rights to the OJ book, BT's have been giving it away freely. They are suing the advertisers not the BT who are offshore. His lawyer said they want to give away they can do it from the poor house. They win, it sets precedent our industry can run with that.
Let me share with you my prediction of the future of the industry if everyone goes tube crazy.
Governments will start banning online porn to protect the children. Now you will say there's a shitload out there now for free. Yes there is but to the non tech savy its not a clear picture but a tube site full of full scenes is a very clear picture to the nontech savy. Have some prime minister or senator click and see anal fisting for free.
The problem with this industry is its very short sighted and if my prediction goes down the industry will have the balls to say, why are they picking on us? lol

[Hell Puppy]

Originally Posted by tony404

How do you adapt to a site full of 15 min+ scenes for free that's just a click away?
People forget 60% percent of the video experience is sound. Thats why youtube does so well, the picture may suck but the sound is good. Same with adult tubes. The thing that may bring the house of cards down is the goldman suit. Ron Goldman's father owns the rights to the OJ book, BT's have been giving it away freely. They are suing the advertisers not the BT who are offshore. His lawyer said they want to give away they can do it from the poor house. They win, it sets precedent our industry can run with that.
Let me share with you my prediction of the future of the industry if everyone goes tube crazy.
Governments will start banning online porn to protect the children. Now you will say there's a shitload out there now for free. Yes there is but to the non tech savy its not a clear picture but a tube site full of full scenes is a very clear picture to the nontech savy. Have some prime minister or senator click and see anal fisting for free.
The problem with this industry is its very short sighted and if my prediction goes down the industry will have the balls to say, why are they picking on us? lol

I have a slightly different prediction.

Government intervention is a perpetual threat. I'm old enough and have been doing this long enough that it first started for me with Meese. Problem is the governments cant react quickly enough. And with the internet, it'll be just like gambling, even if clearly against current laws, you've got offshoring to fight.

My prediction?

Sponsors will turn more to generating their own traffic, being very selective about affiliates they accept, and it'll start to turn the landscape on it's ear a bit. Shrinking margins mean little room to support a needy affiliate who sends 2 sales a month. I see a lot of people having to go get more traditional jobs.

What does that mean for tubes? Everyone I know of in the adult arena that isn't already owned by one of the big companies is for sale. I see sponsors buying them up, cleaning them up and using them for a traffic source.

[RawAlex]

Hell Puppy, everyone said the same things about TGPS about a year after they were launched. It is true that many of the bigger TGPs have been bought out and merged, but it would appear than many of them now are making their money selling spots for listings and not by being great traffic generators.

The other thing is the effects of tube sites. Many people running these tube sites have come to realize that they are a VERY marginal business, with huge bandwidth, maintenance, and potential legal expenses, with somewhat limited income potential, often becasue they have given away so much content that the surfers just don't buy porn. When you see tube sites getting sold, it is because the business model is tough and not working in many cases, not because of their big net incomes.

Unlike mainstream, there isn't as much money in porn sites getting millions of unpaying visitors. There just isn't enough people in porn stupid enough to pay mill rate to be on a pornsite, everything in porn is tuned to production and results. There are very, very few tube sites out there showing that they can actually make decent ROI right now, and that is what is keeping them from being as attractive to the programs.

Tube sites have proven they can get traffic, but they have not proven they can make money. Traffic stats are only there for the owner to masturbate over. Money makes the world go around.

[tony404]

Originally Posted by Hell Puppy

I have a slightly different prediction.

Government intervention is a perpetual threat. I'm old enough and have been doing this long enough that it first started for me with Meese. Problem is the governments cant react quickly enough. And with the internet, it'll be just like gambling, even if clearly against current laws, you've got offshoring to fight.

My prediction?

Sponsors will turn more to generating their own traffic, being very selective about affiliates they accept, and it'll start to turn the landscape on it's ear a bit. Shrinking margins mean little room to support a needy affiliate who sends 2 sales a month. I see a lot of people having to go get more traditional jobs.

What does that mean for tubes? Everyone I know of in the adult arena that isn't already owned by one of the big companies is for sale. I see sponsors buying them up, cleaning them up and using them for a traffic source.

I wasnt clear, Im not thinking of just America, Im thinking of other governments. Germany wants age verification and if your wind up in their sights now, you get a letter and your lawyer recommends not to go visit there. Australia is trying to filter it out. Im thinking places you would never imagine saying no more.Besides being banned if its also filtered out, doesnt matter where you go, your done pretty much online.
BT's, news groups, tgp's,etc a ton of free porn but doesnt send a message to the nontech savvy as a tube site.

[tony404]

On another board they are talking about tubes and here is something to ponder
"I'm staring at 14k hits from the biggest one with 0 signups.

Those are hits to a usually very nicely converting adult site.

The traffic going to other things does ok.

Take from that what you will."

[gonzo]

Originally Posted by tony404

On another board they are talking about tubes and here is something to ponder
"I'm staring at 14k hits from the biggest one with 0 signups.

Those are hits to a usually very nicely converting adult site.

The traffic going to other things does ok.

Take from that what you will."

No different than sending traffic from google's adwords program to someone elses revshare program. You will break even at best if you are only getting 50%.

PPS isnt even worth the time.

And breaking even is over the longhaul.

Tube sites are no different. Youd better have something your getting paid 100% of recurs to make any money.

If you look at it month to month your right. Both are a huge loss.

[EmporerEJ]

Originally Posted by Hell Puppy

Giffy Girls!

All those predate the cut off for 2257 as well.

you betcha...