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Old 10-18-2005   #1
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Default Re: Poker...been trying an experiment..

Read your post about statistics Ryan.

Unfortunately as I understand it the probability of all games of chance are temporally indepent. (ie just because a fair coin shows up heads 10 times in a row doesn't mean it's more likely to be tails the next throw). Hence the percieved phenomenon of winning and losing streaks cannot predict future outcome. Whilst mean and variance can provide you with a guideline of what you are most likely to lose or win, it only takes one sample to fall outside the variance to wipe you out. If you could continue taking samples (ie playing hands) chance would dictate you would fall back within the variance, but unfortunately you are wiped out so you can't.

Now regarding card statistics, most poker players worth their salt will be able to tell you the odds of drawing a winning card (if not they can download a program that will), so it is impossible to gain an edge against a good player using card statistics alone.

When my brother talks of statistics he isn't talking about the card statistics he is talking about the player statistics. Players, unlike a deck of cards are not random and exhibit statistical patterns depending upon their particular psychology. So it is fair to say that poker is an art rather than a science. If you can predict a what a player will do based on their previous moves whilst ensuring your style remains as unpredictable as possible you will greatly increase your overall odds of winning. For example when I play my brother and ask him what he had after he folds he replies "I had what ever you think I did". Thus denying me information that could aid me against him.

The only way to gain an edge is to ensure that your information is better than your opponents and that isn't going to happen through card stats, because you all are being dealt from the same deck, so everyone's information is the same.
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