Final and extensive analysis by Gallup

[Almighty Colin]

Originally posted by RawAlex@Nov 1 2004, 07:35 PM
As an eample, the Electoral-vote site gives the undecided to Kerry at 2:1. Not entirely sure why the heck they do that, but there ya go. That lack of transparancy on many of these sites makes them hard to take seriously.

I have been interested that many of these sites have shown the same trend in the last 7 to 10 days, with Kerry catching up to or passing Bush and pulling ahead by EC, without there being a major shift in the popular vote polls. I think of this as a clear indication of the fact that the EC gives more power to some votes, and less to others.

Alex

EC is all over the place. They just uses the latest poll regardless of where it came from.
So they might use a poll showing an 5% advantage for Kerry in a state and then a new poll from Survey USA will come out showing a 4% advantage to Bush in the same state and the result swings.

EC's current electoral predictor is now ... Kerry 262 Bush 261 because of just such a thing.

BTW, Everyone uses that same 2/3 factor. Traditionally, 2/3 of the undecided voters in the last days will vote for the challenger.