Will Oklahoma go undefeated?

[Almighty Colin]

Originally posted by grimm@Oct 8 2003, 11:22 PM
that is inherently flawed, ark, lsu, va. tech, miami and fsu all have a mitigating factor of 50% that has to pass before they can even remain on the list, making their total odds far less.

If you go by SoS, Certainly Oklahoma has a very good chance. but the fact that they are in a superconference (like lsu, ark) gives them one extra game and further changes the way their odds are calculated, whereas ohio state, miami, va tech, and florida state do not have the extra game,( in fact when you combine the extra games and see that all four of those teams in whole or in part have to contend with one another, they should be at the bottom on a percentage basis, having much more obsticles as variables, but i digress...)seeing as you are going by a system that assumes a 12 game schedule, when some of these teams play 13, and even 14. not to mention the loser of the BCS championship would have one loss.

In other words, much is yet TBD, and if you are going to judge teams to go undefeated, the only true way to get a clean control and variable would be to separate the teams into categories, accounting for the head to head, number of games and a multiple of differential variables.

IMHO.

-Grimm

Grimm,

You should know I'm more careful than that. I took the good space to say both prior to league championships and bowl games and "at the end of the regular season". ;-)

Yes, and as you said each of those 6 teams has a 50% "mitigating factor" or so which is exactly why Oklahoma's odds of going undefeated are better.

Also, I didn't assume the length of the schedule and head to head schedule is how the odds were determined. Now you could argue the merit of using computer generated win/loss probabilities for each head-to-head game but that is another debate entirely.



Last edited by Colin at Oct 9 2003, 06:37 AM