Oprano Football Pickem Simulator

Almighty Colin · 11-19-2002

Oprano Football Pickem

I was interested in what the odds were for individuals winning the Oprano Pickem
part-way through the season. The difficulty is in assessing the effects of the
competition. There are so many players near the same winning percentages that any
particular individual only has a small chance of winning. The following was compiled
using a simple Monte Carlo simulation of the pool for 1000 trials. Basically, I wrote a program that gives everyone even odds in every game and then runs the rest of the season 1000 times.

Odds of Winning - updated through Nov 18 games.

PornDaddy 23.2%
Monk 11.5%
KarenFold 11.5%
Ambergirl 6%
TondaWEGCash 6%
Bobinator 6%
YNOTBob 4.2%
Hell Puppy 2.6%
howard perkiss 2.6%
Mike AI 2.6%
ulfie 2.6%
Wizzo 2.6%
Many more ... More than 50 players not shown won at least once out of 1000 trials.

What's amazing is that according to the simulation - those two extra wins by PornDaddy are worth as much as they are. Of course, there is a 77% chance he won't win also.

Also: The odds of being ahead after next week.

PornDaddy 58%
Monk 15%
KarenFold 15%
Ambergirl 3%
TondaWEGCash 3%
Bobinator 3%
Others ...

So even though there is a 58% chance PornDaddy will be ahead after next week's games - there is a 42% chance he will not.

Winetalk.com · 11-19-2002

deep....
thank you, sir,
may I have another?
;-))

Almighty Colin · 11-19-2002

Quote:

Originally posted by Serge_Oprano@Nov 19 2002, 07:42 AM
deep....
thank you, sir,
may I have another?
;-))

Odds of Serge finishing above 50/50 = 3% :-)

Winetalk.com · 11-19-2002

Quote:

« Previous Thread | Next Thread »

Originally posted by Colin+Nov 19 2002, 07:56 AM-->
QUOTE (Colin @ Nov 19 2002, 07:56 AM)

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11-19-2002 #5

Almighty Colin

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Serge - the question is "are you that bad?" Starting from here if you pick random you will end up over 50/50 3% of the time. If you are worse than random - you should switch all your picks every week. Do the exact opposite of wharever you are doing now. If you had done this all year, you would be in 4th place right now ;-)

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11-19-2002	#2
Winetalk.com Prostate Examiner I quoff fine wine at corkd.com Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: good 'ole USA Posts: 21,018	deep.... thank you, sir, may I have another? ;-)) __________________ why dogs sniff each other butts?

11-19-2002	#1
Almighty Colin Members Want to see your own Advertising Here! Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 8,059	Oprano Football Pickem I was interested in what the odds were for individuals winning the Oprano Pickem part-way through the season. The difficulty is in assessing the effects of the competition. There are so many players near the same winning percentages that any particular individual only has a small chance of winning. The following was compiled using a simple Monte Carlo simulation of the pool for 1000 trials. Basically, I wrote a program that gives everyone even odds in every game and then runs the rest of the season 1000 times. Odds of Winning - updated through Nov 18 games. PornDaddy 23.2% Monk 11.5% KarenFold 11.5% Ambergirl 6% TondaWEGCash 6% Bobinator 6% YNOTBob 4.2% Hell Puppy 2.6% howard perkiss 2.6% Mike AI 2.6% ulfie 2.6% Wizzo 2.6% Many more ... More than 50 players not shown won at least once out of 1000 trials. What's amazing is that according to the simulation - those two extra wins by PornDaddy are worth as much as they are. Of course, there is a 77% chance he won't win also. Also: The odds of being ahead after next week. PornDaddy 58% Monk 15% KarenFold 15% Ambergirl 3% TondaWEGCash 3% Bobinator 3% Others ... So even though there is a 58% chance PornDaddy will be ahead after next week's games - there is a 42% chance he will not. __________________ Almighty Content. Your one stop for live content. Secret Friends, LATINA Secret Friends , My Cam Friends