Final and extensive analysis by Gallup

[Almighty Colin]

Originally posted by RawAlex@Nov 1 2004, 01:13 PM
Realistically, they need to sample about 500 - 1000 people PER state, and break up the electoral college that way. There is no way that 2000 people sampled total would be enough to represent all of the american people and their individual powers to vote.

With the electoral college system, the total votes (percentage) is a mostly meaningless number. Heck, Gore had more votes than Bush, but Bush has the connections and ended up with the job.

Sampling each of the states would give a MUCH better indication of who is going to get elected, not who is going to get the most votes. Gallup is producing a poll that gives people the mistaken impression that each vote counts (and it doesn't!).

Bush is toast. The question is "lightly done" or "burnt".

Alex

Alex, I have no idea why you think a poll of the total popular vote is confusing everyone. Only you seem confused. Gallup does both a popular vote sample AND a state by state sample.

In the state-by-state polling they survey well more than the 500-1000 number per state that you mentioned - about 1300 per state. Results? Same as everywhere else. Too close to call. You can find the data on their site.

That Gallup data above is just what it says. It is a sample of the popular vote. How is that meaningless? It's meant to be exactly what it is. Not a prediction of who will win the election but a sample of the popular vote. If you want state-by-state polls they are on the Gallup site and their sample sizes are larger than you stated would be needed.