Final and extensive analysis by Gallup

[Almighty Colin]

http://gallup.com/poll/content/defau...?ci=13873&pg=1

PRINCETON, NJ -- Two days before the election, the final CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll shows a dead heat in the presidential race, with President George W. Bush and Sen. John Kerry each receiving 49% support among likely voters in the final allocated estimate. Independent candidate Ralph Nader garners 1% of the vote, and all other candidates an additional 1%.

The poll was conducted Oct. 29-31 among 2,014 national adults and includes 1,573 likely voters, and was weighted to reflect an estimated voter turnout of 60%. The final numbers also reflect Gallup's judgment of how undecided voters will cast their ballots.

Before allocation of the undecided vote, Gallup's likely voter model shows Bush ahead by two points, 49% to 47%, while the results among all registered voters show Kerry with a two-point lead, 48% to 46%.

The poll also shows that among "high interest" voters -- all Americans who express a high verbal commitment to voting, regardless of whether they have actually voted in previous elections -- Kerry enjoys a two-point lead, 49% to 47%.

In its traditional likely voter model, Gallup screens out older people if their past voting performance does not reinforce their stated intentions to vote. (Younger people who could not have voted in 2000 are included in the likely voter model, based solely on the intensity of their expressed commitment.) Some observers have suggested that in this election year, the intensity of the public's interest will stimulate a large number of older people to vote for the first time. If that is the case, then the "high interest" voter model could come closer to the final outcome than the traditional likely voter model.

Among all registered voters, 13% say they will be voting in a presidential election for the first time. Among Gallup's "likely voters," just 7% say they will be first-time voters.

Still, all of the differences in support between Kerry and Bush -- among traditional likely voters, all registered voters, and the new category of "high interest" voters -- are well within the poll's margin of error, confirming the general conclusion that the presidential race is too close to call.

The allocation of undecided voters is part of the tradition started in 1936 by Dr. George Gallup, who wanted to provide the public with the pollster's best estimate of what the data indicate. This year, the allocation of the undecided vote is based on Gallup's experience in previous presidential elections, showing that in election contests with an incumbent, virtually all of the undecided vote among likely voters will break for the challenger(s). Thus, in this case, with 3% undecided, 2% is allocated to Kerry and 1% to the Nader/other group, resulting in the estimated tie.

One in 11 Voters Could "Swing"

The poll finds that 9% of likely voters can be classified as potentially "swing" voters -- people whose commitment to a major candidate is not firm. Among all likely voters, 91% say their votes for one of the two major candidates are "certain" -- 46% for Bush and 45% for Kerry. The 9% who do not express a firm intention to vote for either major candidate include 3% who support Bush but could change their minds, 2% who support Kerry and could change their minds, and 4% who indicate no preference for either major candidate.

MORE: http://gallup.com/poll/content/defau...?ci=13873&pg=1