Are the presidential race polls accurate?

OldJeff · 10-31-2004

There is a major flaw in the sampling they are taking this year.

There is a huge increase in young voter registration (with good reason)

All you need to do is think about who is being polled to see the error.

College kids are not being polled - they are busy with classrooms or parties, your average blue collar joe is not being polled, he/she is too busy putting in the OT to make ends meet.

They are polling retirees and soccor moms with nothing better to do, your typical republican base, many who are in that 18% of Americans believing they are in the top 1% of income earners that the Bush Tax cut actually had any meaning for.

I feel the race comes down to this.

If there is large voter apathy (like there is so oftn) then Bush will win - your typical Senior Citizen vote that remembers the good old days.

A large voter turnout will give the election to Kerry, especially if there is a large percent of 18-25 year olds. Even though I don't think there will be a Draft, the "belief" of one happening should be enough to push those that are draft eligible to the polls to vote against Bush.

10-31-2004	#12
OldJeff Cantankerous Loony Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 468	There is a major flaw in the sampling they are taking this year. There is a huge increase in young voter registration (with good reason) All you need to do is think about who is being polled to see the error. College kids are not being polled - they are busy with classrooms or parties, your average blue collar joe is not being polled, he/she is too busy putting in the OT to make ends meet. They are polling retirees and soccor moms with nothing better to do, your typical republican base, many who are in that 18% of Americans believing they are in the top 1% of income earners that the Bush Tax cut actually had any meaning for. I feel the race comes down to this. If there is large voter apathy (like there is so oftn) then Bush will win - your typical Senior Citizen vote that remembers the good old days. A large voter turnout will give the election to Kerry, especially if there is a large percent of 18-25 year olds. Even though I don't think there will be a Draft, the "belief" of one happening should be enough to push those that are draft eligible to the polls to vote against Bush.