Bush. One, two, or three presidencies?

wig · 04-13-2003

I certainly am not going out on a limb to try and predict the presidential election. Not a liquid market for that trade anyway.

But, in the context of what JMM said about the economy, I am willing to predict that the equity markets will see another serious round of selling into 2004 (same with US $). What that means for the election I do not know or care. But, if someone wants to draw a fundamental correlation between the two I think they will have it.

IMO, a falling equity market is not necessarily a parallel indicator of the economy or election.

For me, I am more concerned about my current short bond and long equity positions as it applies to the next 2-4 days, then 2-4 weeks, then 2-4 months if applicable.

There are just too many pieces of the puzzle to be turned over along the way and I concentrate on whether this new technical information is confirming or negating my analysis.

Last edited by wig at Apr 13 2003, 09:16 AM

04-13-2003	#12
wig Members Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 1,248	I certainly am not going out on a limb to try and predict the presidential election. Not a liquid market for that trade anyway. But, in the context of what JMM said about the economy, I am willing to predict that the equity markets will see another serious round of selling into 2004 (same with US $). What that means for the election I do not know or care. But, if someone wants to draw a fundamental correlation between the two I think they will have it. IMO, a falling equity market is not necessarily a parallel indicator of the economy or election. For me, I am more concerned about my current short bond and long equity positions as it applies to the next 2-4 days, then 2-4 weeks, then 2-4 months if applicable. There are just too many pieces of the puzzle to be turned over along the way and I concentrate on whether this new technical information is confirming or negating my analysis. Last edited by wig at Apr 13 2003, 09:16 AM