Oprano Football Pickem Simulator

Almighty Colin · 11-19-2002

Oprano Football Pickem

I was interested in what the odds were for individuals winning the Oprano Pickem
part-way through the season. The difficulty is in assessing the effects of the
competition. There are so many players near the same winning percentages that any
particular individual only has a small chance of winning. The following was compiled
using a simple Monte Carlo simulation of the pool for 1000 trials. Basically, I wrote a program that gives everyone even odds in every game and then runs the rest of the season 1000 times.

Odds of Winning - updated through Nov 18 games.

PornDaddy 23.2%
Monk 11.5%
KarenFold 11.5%
Ambergirl 6%
TondaWEGCash 6%
Bobinator 6%
YNOTBob 4.2%
Hell Puppy 2.6%
howard perkiss 2.6%
Mike AI 2.6%
ulfie 2.6%
Wizzo 2.6%
Many more ... More than 50 players not shown won at least once out of 1000 trials.

What's amazing is that according to the simulation - those two extra wins by PornDaddy are worth as much as they are. Of course, there is a 77% chance he won't win also.

Also: The odds of being ahead after next week.

PornDaddy 58%
Monk 15%
KarenFold 15%
Ambergirl 3%
TondaWEGCash 3%
Bobinator 3%
Others ...

So even though there is a 58% chance PornDaddy will be ahead after next week's games - there is a 42% chance he will not.

11-19-2002	#1
Almighty Colin Members Want to see your own Advertising Here! Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 8,059	Oprano Football Pickem I was interested in what the odds were for individuals winning the Oprano Pickem part-way through the season. The difficulty is in assessing the effects of the competition. There are so many players near the same winning percentages that any particular individual only has a small chance of winning. The following was compiled using a simple Monte Carlo simulation of the pool for 1000 trials. Basically, I wrote a program that gives everyone even odds in every game and then runs the rest of the season 1000 times. Odds of Winning - updated through Nov 18 games. PornDaddy 23.2% Monk 11.5% KarenFold 11.5% Ambergirl 6% TondaWEGCash 6% Bobinator 6% YNOTBob 4.2% Hell Puppy 2.6% howard perkiss 2.6% Mike AI 2.6% ulfie 2.6% Wizzo 2.6% Many more ... More than 50 players not shown won at least once out of 1000 trials. What's amazing is that according to the simulation - those two extra wins by PornDaddy are worth as much as they are. Of course, there is a 77% chance he won't win also. Also: The odds of being ahead after next week. PornDaddy 58% Monk 15% KarenFold 15% Ambergirl 3% TondaWEGCash 3% Bobinator 3% Others ... So even though there is a 58% chance PornDaddy will be ahead after next week's games - there is a 42% chance he will not. __________________ Almighty Content. Your one stop for live content. Secret Friends, LATINA Secret Friends , My Cam Friends