Credit Crunch and Niche Selection

[Hell Puppy]

Gonna share some thoughts that I dont normally give away for free... But it's a theory, so I'll kick it out there and if others pay attention we have more data to see if I'm right in a few months.

Now this is gonna read like some sort of trigonometry proof, but bear with me...

Given... We're in a credit crunch. As a result, only those with good proven credit and income are being extended any sort of credit at all.

Given... Visa see's a surge of new credit cards between May and October going to recent grads and those starting school. These are usually low limit cards on special programs to introduce these kids to the credit card and make junkies out of them at a young age.

Now when you put both of those together though, you can figure the amount of these cards coming into circulation this year is probably a fraction of previous years.

Given... College kids represent a pretty high percentage of porn surfers and when they have money they are also porn buyers.

Given... College kids typically go for young, glam, hotties. The really fresh faced look, college coeds, teens, etc. This is one of the reasons that the "teen" niche is so big. If you've ever monitored your demographics, you'll know this is where most of the under 25 set target.

Given... Older guys with jobs and good credit are typically a bit more sexually mature. They've long since figured out what exactly it is that does it for them. It is much easier to sell them on a niche or fetish that lights their fire than it is to convert them on a 19 year old girl diddling herself and giggling....though some of us still like that too. But I digress!

So what am I forecasting when i add all of that together?

Here's my theorem... The teen site market is about to make a little down turn. I also think the same can be said for cookie cutter meat and potatoes hardcore, your traditional fuck flicks from the valley. Now this doesn't mean a boom for niche and fetish, but I think that is a safer haven. If I were building paysites or mousetraps right now, I dont think i'd focus on teen.

Anyone else wanna help me bench mark this for a bit?

the result I expect to see is sales down on teen and general hardcore, sales level or at least down less on every other niche and fetish.