Final and extensive analysis by Gallup

[RawAlex]

Colin, pay attention: I know Gallup does a state by state. BRAVO!

What I am saying is that because the media wants "sound bites" rather than detail, the single poll numbers from the overall poll are put out there as "the truth". Viewers and readers then take that SINGLE set of numbers and judge the condition of the race (and potentially adjust their vote) based on that single number.

Overall polling of such small groups of people might be a good indicator of what the total vote will look like, but does nothing to explain who will end up in the whitehouse.

As for the different sites, well, many of them appear to have a particular tilt or leaning in the way the place the undecided / unknowns. As an eample, the Electoral-vote site gives the undecided to Kerry at 2:1. Not entirely sure why the heck they do that, but there ya go. That lack of transparancy on many of these sites makes them hard to take seriously.

I have been interested that many of these sites have shown the same trend in the last 7 to 10 days, with Kerry catching up to or passing Bush and pulling ahead by EC, without there being a major shift in the popular vote polls. I think of this as a clear indication of the fact that the EC gives more power to some votes, and less to others.

Alex