Final Gallup state-by-state polls

[Almighty Colin]

http://gallup.com/poll/content/defau...?ci=13876&pg=1

PRINCETON, NJ -- Final CNN/USA Today/Gallup showdown state polls underscore how close the presidential election between President George W. Bush and Democratic candidate John Kerry is likely to be. The polls show mixed results in six of the most hotly contested states -- with Kerry leading in one state (Minnesota), Bush leading in one (Wisconsin), and the results of four others (Iowa, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida) within the polls' margins of error. The polls were mostly conducted between Wednesday and Saturday, with polling in Ohio and Pennsylvania continuing into Sunday.

"Swing states"

Florida Kerry 50, Bush 47
Iows Bush 48, Kerry 46
Minnesota Kerry 52, Bush 44
Ohio Kerry 50, Bush 46
Penn Bush 50, Kerry 46
Wisconsin Bush 52, Kerry 44

The Electoral College Outlook

These polling results do not provide a clear indication of the likely winner on Election Day, though the polls confirm that the presidential race will be close. Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania will probably have the greatest impact on the race. If either candidate wins all three, he is virtually assured of winning the presidency. The candidate who can win two of three will have a significant advantage, although not necessarily a guarantee of ultimate victory.

For example, if Kerry loses two of the three big states, he would have to overcome Bush's edge in Wisconsin while also winning Iowa, New Mexico, and taking New Hampshire (or pull a big upset in a state that is currently leaning Republican, such as Missouri or Colorado). On the other hand, if Bush were to lose Ohio and Florida, he could still win the Electoral College vote if he wins Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Mexico.

While there are many other possibilities, it seems clear that in addition to the three key states of Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania, the smaller states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa -- and possibly New Mexico and New Hampshire as well -- could also play a crucial role. Bush almost has to win Wisconsin or Minnesota plus Iowa if he does not win two of the three big states.

The table lists the electoral votes available by state, and which are likely to go Republican and Democratic. The winning candidate will need to win 270 out of 538. Some of the large group of tossup states are leaning in Kerry's direction, according to available polling data from Gallup and other organizations, and some are leaning in Bush's direction. Given the closeness of the race, even the slightest of shifts in voter preference in the last two days of the campaign could have a dramatic effect on the outcome.

It is also not beyond the realm of possibility that each candidate could get 269 electoral votes. One plausible scenario resulting in a tie would have Bush winning Florida, Wisconsin, and New Mexico while Kerry wins Minnesota, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and New Hampshire (with the other states going in the direction they are currently leaning). In that case, the U.S. House of Representatives would make the final decision, with Bush likely emerging victorious in that case since Republicans have a majority of congressional delegations.