No Way Out Of Iraq

Rolo / Colin --

Oil is a factor. However, the war is about gaining credibility:
1.) Against terror
2.) Against rouge nation states--specifically we go to a "quick war" against Iraq to avoid a real prolonged potentially nuclear war against N. Korea.
3.) Domestic popularity

If we defeat Iraq and remove Saddam, then the U.S. has a new base of military operations inside Iraq. That base of operations would be a strategic location, far better than afghanistan. It would also allow us to control the production of oil in Iraq, essentially breaking a lot of OPEC cartel power as we institute a "Marshall Plan" in the middle east. The risk is angering the Saudis; however, with a Marshall Plan in Iraq, the Saudis would be forced to act differently.

In addition, we would have a greater ability to put more strategic pressure on Israel to help stabilize that situation.

In the very short term, threatening war against Iraq and deploying troops is a KEY signal to N. Korea that the Bush administration is serious about commiting forces. Also, it buys some time.

N. Korea would inflict huge military and civilian casualities in N. Korea, S. Korea and U.S. soldiers. Now that the fools have made N. Korean nuclear development an issue, they have to find a way to deal with that situation effectively.

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In a lot of ways the Iraqi issue is key to reorganizing the long-term prospects in the Middle East. The more I think about it, the less it has to do with weapons of mass destruction, oil, or terrorism. It is long-term strategic policy for that region. U.S. needs complete political control of a vast stretch of terrority.

Long term
1.) Political stability
2.) Increased pressure on Israel
3.) Oil

Short term
1.) Domestic Popularity
2.) Pressure on N. Korea (buys time for help from China on the N. Korea issue)
3.) A win in terms of shifting the blame from osama to saddam for 9/11 (which has surprising worked so far. How much do you hear about Osama?)