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That's right. Despite all the uncertainty, my technical work says buy the stock market now and that we should see an accelerated move higher into year-end, continuing into early 2005.
I guess this might suggest that the election may not be so close as to cause dispute.
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wig: Here's a good question: Will the election of Kerry or Bush be better for stocks?
Alex
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Originally posted by wig@Oct 26 2004, 12:31 PM Mike,
I bought the S&P futures. I don't fuck around. :P
I need to be educated more on futures, they are scary to inexperienced people like me.
Alex, I know you will say I am wrong, but everything I have read Bush will be better for the stock market. Forbes, WSJ, and other business publications are mostly supporting Bush. Just the capital gains tax cut makes Bush superior.
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The price of oil seriously concerns me. It appears the market acts very favorably towards drops in oil prices, but does not react with the same force as when oil rises. I think many analysts are overlooking this and if the prices continue, there will be a market adjustment come 3-4 months...
not jumping on the stock index chart wagon just yet.... at a critical juncture in my opinion.....I know wig uses longer term cycles so that gives me some comfort on which way we might go... but until my chart formations resolve one way or the other... I am watching from the sideline (except for my gold longs, some oil longs.... and a couple other things) I have a $COMPQ and $SPX chart somehwere.... will post them tomorrow.
Feels intuitively that oil might be topping out here for the intermediate term (but has huge upsaide long-term) and also feels like dollar has been lambasted so hard for so long that this trend may bounce the other way for awhile also (until the main trend resumes later on)
Gold is golden!!! Short term and long term.... in my opinion.
Originally posted by Monk@Oct 26 2004, 06:46 PM not jumping on the stock index chart wagon just yet.... at a critical juncture in my opinion.....I know wig uses longer term cycles so that gives me some comfort on which way we might go... but until my chart formations resolve one way or the other... I am watching from the sideline (except for my gold longs, some oil longs.... and a couple other things) I have a $COMPQ and $SPX chart somehwere.... will post them tomorrow.
Feels intuitively that oil might be topping out here for the intermediate term (but has huge upsaide long-term) and also feels like dollar has been lambasted so hard for so long that this trend may bounce the other way for awhile also (until the main trend resumes later on)
Gold is golden!!! Short term and long term.... in my opinion.
Monk,
I am pretty much in agreement with what you have said, although I still think the preferred path for Gold is that it is still in a correction / consolidation from the January 2004 high of $433.
If I am correct, we are still in an Elliott "B" wave that should peak soon and be followed by a C wave decline finishing the correction and setting the stage for a very powerful advance into 2007-2008. A weekly close above $433 would negate this.
Re; S&P.... I am sort of picking the low here in the equities and, like you, need to see a few things to confirm it. As long as we do not close the month below 9852/DJIA, 1077/SPZ and 1360/NQZ I will have a pretty good monthly signal that this is a low and not a breakdown.
Also, a SPZ can close above 1114.90 on Oct 29th it will generate a powerful reversal pattern for me, also signaling a bottom.
Originally posted by Biggy@Oct 27 2004, 12:18 AM Monk,
if you believe in gold, then you are predicting a down turn in the economy?
Most importantly, the US dollar is in a shitload of trouble... that has led to a substantial portion of gold's up move to date. But even separately from that, gold is making a move lately against the other currencies as well..... this means there is more going on here than just the weak dollar, since gold is also moving up in value against the euro, etc.
Also, inflation is driving up the price of gold (and is bad for the markets) If you look at the charts for almost any commodity, including OIL and steel ... they all look to be in major bull markets that will last for quite awhile.
What else is going on? Hard to say for sure, but things like terrorism and political instability around the world help gold, it being a safe haven.
But.... yes, I think that we are in a MAJOR downturn in the economy and stock markets... this up move we have felt since early 2003 IMHO is a temporary thing...... nothing goes straight down.
The Nasdaq dropped from 5100 to 1100 and I think we may bounce as high as 3100 in this upmove before the down move starts again. Even if the Nasdaq doesn't completely crater in the future..... it is likely to bounce up and down for many years without ever making a 'major' move up... the stock market cannot just dust itself off and keep going after the major shellacking it took.... it would at least have to consolidate (bounce around) for several years (I'm talking 10-15 more years)
Today was a nice day.... Wig, you may be a genuis afterall!
Seriosly, you know way more about market dynamics then I do.
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Nah, Mike... I'm just a squirrel trying to get a nut like everyone else.
Seriously, it is too early to tell on this trade.
A real call was my comments to Serge and on this board back in 2002 when I predicted the collapse of the US dollar and the beginning of the bull market in metals, while also stating that the stock markets were on the verge of the largest rally in 2 years.
Now, 2 years later, I think what I am looking for now will be the last gasp in equities before we collapse again.
the next few years will be very tough for the average investor if my analysis is correct.
People like Monk, who can think outside of the mainstream "stay for the long haul" will do well.
Originally posted by wig@Oct 27 2004, 07:12 PM Nah, Mike... I'm just a squirrel trying to get a nut like everyone else.
Seriously, it is too early to tell on this trade.
A real call was my comments to Serge and on this board back in 2002 when I predicted the collapse of the US dollar and the beginning of the bull market in metals,
you didn't do it on the board,
you told me that in January, in Las Vegas, at Cybrglide's party
;-))))
you also mentioned cotton, if my memory serves me right
;-)))
I'll be using any rally to sell into strength,
as I don't see any reasons for stocks to do well in 2005, regardless who wins the election. I see stocks peaking in Jan-Feb of 05 to lose conciderably in 05-07
so you are shorting at a good spot (from my charting perspective... I know you use cycles) as silver just bounced down off its resistance line
Currently, the precious metal stocks are outperforming the metal though... I don't dabble at all in the futures market or the metals themselves... just stocks.
Originally posted by wig@Oct 28 2004, 11:31 AM
What is in your tool box that you find useful? I assume you use technicals primarily??
Yup, technicals.
I try to keep it simple (KISS). When I look at a chart and see too many lines and diagrams... I know I have over-analyzed that stock.... this is just my trading style... I know others have their own preferences.
Mainly I use;
1) Trendlines (MAIN technique)... this includes;
- flat lines at prior resistance and support levels
- channels
- wedges (bearish and bullish)
- flags (bearish and bullish)
- various other formations
2) Volume... very important for seeing what is REALLY going on behind a stock's movement.
3) Divergences... positive and negative divergences with MACD/RSI and price movement.
4) Fibonacci retracements
5) Elliot Waves, sparingly... but sometimes
6) Moving averages... can usually tell when a stock is a slave to particular moving average based on past reactions..... use as applicable
7) Indicators like RSI and MACD moving into and out of oversold levels.
That's about it wig. Unfortunately, I don't get to spend as much time monitoring all this stuff as I'd wish...... got 'real' work to do.
Keep us all updated with your calls.... your record has been pretty stellar to date.
I like the KISS principle, too. I have found that analyzing or trying to perceive what will happen is such a small part of it that my time is better spent on honing the execution side.
It took me a long time to stop over analyzing and work on my psychological deficiencies instead. Greed, fear, patience, humility, etc...
It's been a long, hard road, but it finally started paying off. I know I will never finish the journey. :-)
Originally posted by wig@Oct 28 2004, 06:00 PM I like the KISS principle, too. I have found that analyzing or trying to perceive what will happen is such a small part of it that my time is better spent on honing the execution side.
That's what I like about trendlines. Like in that silver chart I posted earlier.... I can see the upper resistance and if I short when it is at (or near) that line at 7.40.... that gives me execution on the buy/short side.
If it goes against me and breaks above the line..... that is a definitive point to cover the short. If it goes my way and reaches the lower support line... that would be a clear place to cover also.
Originally posted by wig@Oct 28 2004, 06:00 PM It took me a long time to stop over analyzing and work on my psychological deficiencies instead. Greed, fear, patience, humility, etc...
Oh, fuck. I gave up on that years ago and decided to embrace them. "I'm ok, you're ok", my ass. I'm ok because I define my weaknesses as strengths.
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Umm yeah Serge, back in the late 90's in SF, I traded options on a desk at Robertson Stephens, managed private client accounts, and did VC work for H&Q, Weisel and Montgomery Securities...so i guess a little.
Initially, when i posted, i was joking cause i think "going long" is a pretty relative term; traditional buy-and-hold strategys are often out-dated and dangerous in many verticals. Seems to me that Political and Economic conditions are a little too unstable to be anywhere for very long. - thanks for asking.
Originally posted by PeerPatrick@Nov 5 2004, 04:43 PM Umm yeah Serge, back in the late 90's in SF, I traded options on a desk at Robertson Stephens, managed private client accounts, and did VC work for H&Q, Weisel and Montgomery Securities...so i guess a little.
Initially, when i posted, i was joking cause i think "going long" is a pretty relative term; traditional buy-and-hold strategys are often out-dated and dangerous in many verticals. Seems to me that Political and Economic conditions are a little too unstable to be anywhere for very long. - thanks for asking.
PP, now when you clarified your post,
I TOTALLY agree!
;-)))
I am sure it's unrelated to your trading activity,
but you lost your shirt and we have it!
;-)))
Originally posted by PeerPatrick@Nov 5 2004, 04:43 PM Umm yeah Serge, back in the late 90's in SF, I traded options on a desk at Robertson Stephens, managed private client accounts, and did VC work for H&Q, Weisel and Montgomery Securities...so i guess a little.
Initially, when i posted, i was joking cause i think "going long" is a pretty relative term; traditional buy-and-hold strategys are often out-dated and dangerous in many verticals. Seems to me that Political and Economic conditions are a little too unstable to be anywhere for very long. - thanks for asking.
PP,
i started in investment banking in 1985. I held a series 7, 24, 27, 3, 63. Before WTS I co-owned a NASD broker dealer and a commodities firm.
I never let politics or fundamentals get in the way of my decision making. I am totally technical and my work has been published in Futures magazine.
Going long or going short is NOT a relative term, especially when one is long 20 S&P e-minis. Those are futures in case you do not know.
Put that into your calculator and tell us another joke.
That's not the only shirt I lost Serge. When the market started to go soft in 2000, I moved over to a lucrative broadband and t-com start-up. We were taking cash and company stock options, as a form of payment. These smoke and mirror plays burned through hundreds of millions of dollars but not 1 company's shares ever saw daylight.
Then there was that DRM thing...
In retrospect I should be a lot more bitter than I am. "They" say sanity is a balance between memory and forgetfullness; that if we constantly retained and internalized all the injustices sufferd upon us by the world, the inequity and absurdity of experience would drive most folk loco. I remember just enough to be amused.
I miss my shirt and good conversation, let's do dinner soon.
10-26-2004
If by long you mean buying on volume and churning daily then, yes, I'm with you.
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