latest from oil markets

[Winetalk.com]

USA reached it's PEAK of oil production in the 70's
the WORLD is gonna reach it's PEAK production in 2005
the last barrel of oil will be pumped in about 40 years.

[Mike AI]

How much will that last barrel be worth?

[Winetalk.com]

Originally posted by Mike AI@Jun 2 2004, 10:32 AM
How much will that last barrel be worth?

as much as the last lighting candle
;-)))

[RawAlex]

if oil continues it's climb, there will be a huge shift to other forms of energy for transport. Some of those methods are not currently viable (cost per mile driven is too high), but might come into their own as the price of oil based transportation blows past them.

It's interesting times... and you know what a curse that can be.

Alex

[Winetalk.com]

Originally posted by RawAlex@Jun 2 2004, 11:32 AM
if oil continues it's climb, there will be a huge shift to other forms of energy for transport. Some of those methods are not currently viable (cost per mile driven is too high), but might come into their own as the price of oil based transportation blows past them.

It's interesting times... and you know what a curse that can be.

Alex

not really...
I'll be buying the stock of Midland, the biggest raw food company producer in the world

stock symbol:
adm

[Winetalk.com]

Quwait Oil Minister:
price of oil should go down 6-8 a barrle in the next 2-3 weeks

Saudies _talk_ oil down too....

[Vick]

Oil hits record high of $42 per barrel today on news of fighting in Saudi

http://www.iht.com/articles/522980.html


but .....

, pledging to open oil taps ahead of a formal cartel decision on output quotas.
.
The United Arab Emirates said it would release an additional 400,000 barrels of oil a day as of this month, augmenting the 700,000 barrels a day being pumped by Saudi Arabia.

[Opti]

Radio report was only just talking about how it was back down under $40 today.... $38 even I think it said..

[Rolo]

The world could use less oil by energy conservation, new technology, and by changing to renewable energy.

The EU have made a plan to have 20% of its energy from renewable energy by 2020 (they are currently working at 10% by 2010). The EU will save some €400 billions, and create 2 mio more jobs in the EU, because the renewable energy is a local industry, which can not be outsoucred to 3rd world countries or pumped up in some middle east country.
European renewable energy industry projects that 50% of ALL world energy can be renewable by 2040, however it will take investing now (ofcourse ;-) ).

The US also have some programs, but they are not even close to what the EU is doing, and this could lead the US to problems when oil prices gets to high (and its only a matter, when this will be, not if). I think it would be great if US politician started to look at renewable energy as good investments both when it comes to creating jobs, better environment and making the US more secure. Renewable energy should be the next big thing on wall street, but it needs politicians to create a situation, so it can compete with oil, before oil gets so expensive, that it hurts the economy.

Renewable energy should be something every US politician supported - the arguments for using oil or other fossil fuels will only get weaker with time - no need to hold on to something, which can be replaced today, and be good business in the future.

My favorit renewable energy is wind power, but we should be using many different renewable techonlogies in the future, since each technology has its advantages.

Ex. Wind turbine energy balances takes 9 months to generate as much energy as is used in their entire life cycles. This is from the extraction of the raw materials, usage to final disposal. A Wind turbine can produce energy for more than 20 years, meaning you will have atleast 19 years and 3 months of FREE energy (this is energy, not cost).
Wind turbines today can produce 4+ MegaWatts, one of these turbines can produce enough electricity to power 1000 US households yearly.
It is also possible to store energy from wind turbines in the form of hydrogen - this hydrogen could be used later when energy is needed or it could be used as fuel in future fuel cells. Only problems with wind turbines is where to place them, since you are harvesting the wind, then you need to place them where there is alot and constant wind. The ocean is a good idea (especially if you want to produce hydrogen, because you got direct access to water), but actual 6% of the US landmass is producing enough wind to supply 150% of the current electricity used in the US.

And there are other renewable energy, and good ones are solar, hydro, biomass, geothermal, oceanwaves etc.

But one of the big challenges in technology is the price of Fuel Cells.
Fuel Cells, which can be used in cars, are too expensive, because no one is massproducing them, however many companies are looking to change that, and they think that by 2010-2012 fuel cells will be cheap enough to compete with current car engines using fossil fuels. This could have a huge positive impact on the oil usage, pollution, and other problems, which will only get bigger with time.

Bottomline is that politicians need to do something today, and it will pay off as we go from the oil age to the renewable energy age.

[Winetalk.com]

Rolo,
the question is:
WHERE do we find smart politicians?

[Rolo]

Its hard having smart politicians who have foresight and positive visions, in a world where the media and public live by the negative criteria. If a problem/situation/story does not have a "news alert", breaking news", "emergency" feel, then the media and public does not give it attention. So the smart politicians learn that if they want power, then they need to focus on the negativ criteria.

However a few times each century we are blessed with smart politicians who have foresight, positive visions and the charisma to attract the attention of the media and public - these are the politicians who can build sociaties, begin life changing events, make none violent revolutions, and end up in historybooks decades after as the visionary leaders of the time.

But evolution will make the world use renewable energy - its just a matter of when and how. If we do nothing now, then in time we will face the oil peak, and then the oil crises - now the problem/situation/story is negative enough to get the media and public attention. And at that time the politicians of the world will choose renewable energy, not because its a solution, but becuase it is the only solution.

I would prefer smart politicians who have foresight, positive visions and the charisma to attract the attention, so we can evolve into the renewable energy age without the major crises, and in a way which will make us prosper.

[Rolo]

This is from the renewable energy industry in Europe, and how they would make 50% of all world energy come from renewable energy by 2040:

http://www.erec-renewables.org/documents/t...ario%202040.pdf

[fuckingmoney.com]

Germany is currently the largest manufacturer of energy (wind mills), we (the dutch) even import it, they also lowered tax on "green" energy, i like it

[Rolo]

Yes, the north europe is really showing the way... some of the countries are already getting upto 25-30% of their electricity from wind turbines, and they are also doing testing on small islands, which will have 100% renewable energy within 1-2 years.

The european public seams to be ok with paying a little more for their renewable energy, also the goverments are helping with tax incentives, when investing in renewable energy projects.

[fuckingmoney.com]

Originally posted by Rolo@Jun 3 2004, 12:35 PM
Yes, the north europe is really showing the way... some of the countries are already getting upto 25-30% of their electricity from wind turbines, and they are also doing testing on small islands, which will have 100% renewable energy within 1-2 years.

The european public seams to be ok with paying a little more for their renewable energy, also the goverments are helping with tax incentives, when investing in renewable energy projects.

Ur right, europe rocks when it comes to these things but don't go to far though heheh almost 6 dollar a gallon of fuel is totally uncool, 6 dollar of which 5,20 dollars go to our government, they set the price high to discourage people using there cars to much... #@$#@ like i LOVE to drive, doing over 70.000 kilometres a year for my work, my car costs me over 1500 dollar a month

[Rolo]

When the US will need to do energy conservation, then I´m sure there will be high tax on fuel/oil aswell... its one of the easist/fastest ways to make people do energy conservation.

Maybe the US needs to import some european socialists, and make them Secretary of Energy, Secretary of Transportation and Secretary of the Treasury h34r:

[Rolo]

Schroeder is now active supporting the move from oil to renewable energy... I think the EU is going to come out of this on top, and possible as the world dominant power - other countries will end up trading oil in euros, because the euro will have less problems once oil peak arrives:

Schroeder warns about oil dependency

3 June 2004

BONN - German chancellor Gerhard Schroeder Thursday called on global governments to step up efforts to harness renewable energies, saying that such a move would make the world less vulnerable to terrorism.

Speaking at International Renewable Energy Conference in Bonn, Schroeder said the world's dependency on oil was playing into the hands of terrorists.

Terror attacks on oil facilities "are directly aimed at striking a vital nerve of humankind", the Chancellor told government representatives from more than 130 countries attending the Bonn conference.

The spate of recent attacks in Saudi Arabia and the continued instability in Iraq made it dramatically clear that the availability of a variety of sources of energy was vital to international security, Schroeder said.

He also noted that current high oil prices illustrated an urgent need to move away from oil and towards renewable resources like the sun, wind, hydropower and bio-energy.

The German leader's remarks came at the opening of a two-day ministerial session at the conference.

The conference, which began 1 June and is to end Friday, will issue an International Action Programme (IAP) for renewable energy projects and initiatives around the world.

Earlier Thursday, British Prime Minister Tony Blair, in a video transmission to the Bonn proceedings, also said building up renewable energy would strengthen world security.

http://www.expatica.com/source/site_articl...2&story_id=8145

[Rolo]

Now this article is from before the war in Iraq, but it brings some good points to what it means for the US economy that ithe dollar is used in oil trade, and it also gives a few good points to why dollars might be replaced by euros:

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/business/st...,900867,00.html

Here is a few quotes

The oil-dollar nexus is one of the foundations of the world economy that inevitably filters through to geopolitics. Recycling so-called petrodollars, the proceeds of these high oil prices, has helped the United States run its colossal trade deficits. But the past year has seen the quiet emergence of the 'petroeuro'.

Effectively, the normal standards of economics have not applied to the US, because of the international role of the dollar. Some $3 trillion (£1,880 billion) are in circulation around the world helping the US to run virtually permanent trade deficits. Two-thirds of world trade is dollar-denominated. Two-thirds of central banks' official foreign exchange reserves are also dollar-denominated.

---

Iraqi oil, two-thirds of which is being snapped up by US companies, can only be paid for in euros.

'It was a political move on the part of the Iraqi government to show that the euro could be a substitute for the dollar in denominating the oil price,' says Fadhil Chalabi of the Centre for Global Energy Studies.

That move was made in the same week that the euro reached its historic low of $0.82 in October 2000. The subsequent 30 per cent rise in the euro has greatly helped the United Nations' oil-for-food programme in Iraq.

Soon afterwards, Jordan launched its own bilateral trade scheme with Iraq, carried out entirely in euros.

---

Last year, in a little noticed Opec speech to a Spanish Finance Ministry conference, Javad Yarjani, a senior Iranian oil diplomat, said: 'It is quite possible that as bilateral trade increases between the Middle East and the European Union, it could be feasible to price oil in euros. This would foster further ties between these trading blocs by increasing commercial exchange, and by helping attract much-needed European investment in the Middle East.'

Yarjani said the 'critical question is the overall value and stability of the euro, and whether other countries within the union adopt the single currency'.

---

Last year Russia entered into negotiations with Germany over the establishment of an exchange to sell oil futures denominated in euros. Russia, which on some measures is the world's Number 1 oil producer at the moment, is awash with petrodollars, but trades mainly with Europe. Russia's foreign exchange holdings recently reached an all-time high of $50bn.

----

Last year the former US Ambassador to Saudi Arabia told a committee of the US Congress: 'One of the major things the Saudis have historically done, in part out of friendship with the United States, is to insist that oil continues to be priced in dollars. Therefore, the US Treasury can print money and buy oil, which is an advantage no other country has. With the emergence of other currencies and with strains in the relationship, I wonder whether there will not again be, as there have been in the past, people in Saudi Arabia who raise the question of why they should be so kind to the United States.'

----

Historically, empires have been exporters of capital, rather than importers like the US. The dollar has been vital to this revolution. At the euro's launch Martin Feldstein, a Harvard economist, pointed to the possibility that the single currency could weaken the status of the dollar to the extent that it 'could complicate international military relationships'. Feldstein is an outside contender to replace Alan Greenspan at the Federal Reserve.

[Rolo]

Oil price is continue lowering - current crude oil price is $38.47

Maybe we can avoid the "Mad Max" world for a few years
http://www.madmaxmovies.com/media/video/tr...ers/MadMax2.mpg

[Rolo]

From the BBC:

Is the world's oil running out fast?

By Adam Porter
at the Peak Oil conference in Berlin

How long will the oil keep flowing?

If you think oil prices are high at $40 a barrel then wait till they are four times that much.

How will you pay to run your car? How will you get the children to school? How will you heat your house? How much will transported food go up in price?

How will we pay for plastics, metals, rubber, cheap flights, Simpson's DVDs, 3G phones and everlasting economic growth?

The basic answer is, we won't.

This is the message from the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO).

The group of oil executives, geologists, investment bankers, academics and others has been warning the world of high oil prices, and the ensuing fallout, for some years now.

The end of cheap oil

It includes a diverse range of oil industry insiders.

People like Ali Bakhtiari, head of strategic planning at Iran's National Oil Company (NOIC), Dr Colin Campbell, a former executive vice president of Total-Fina, and Matthew Simmons, an energy investment banker and adviser to the controversial Bush-Cheney energy plan.

They are united by one idea, that global oil production is about to peak, which in turn will signal the permanent end of cheap oil.

And they warn that this is the foundation of the current rise in oil prices.

Who hurts when prices explode?

"Oil is far too cheap at the moment," says Mr Simmons.

"The figure I'd use is around $182 a barrel. We need to price oil realistically to control its demand. That is because global production is peaking."


Large new oil fields are ever more difficult to find
"If we price oil correctly," Mr Simmons says, "it could give us time to find bridge fuels, fuels to fill the gap between an oil economy and a renewable economy. But I don't see that happening."

The adherents of the peak oil theory warn the decline of world oil output will force oil prices higher for good, and that the knock on effects could be catastrophic.

"In my opinion, unfortunately, there will be no linear change," says Iran's Ali Bakhtiari. "There will only be sudden explosive change."

"The people who will be least affected will be the super poor, who already have no access to energy, and the super rich who do not care if oil is $100 a barrel."

"It is everyone who is in the middle who will be hurt the most," says Mr Bakhtiari. "When the crisis comes there will be enormous changes."


Oil rationing?

Dr Campbell says endless growth is not possible

Much of ASPO's predictions stem from the calculations of Dr Campbell.

His work on oil reserves has long suggested that many official oil data are either flawed estimates or at worst downright lies.

Scandals like the 23% of 'lost' reserves at Royal Dutch Shell have helped to boost interest in his work.

False reserves threaten the security of energy supply, just as do bombs under pipelines.

Dr Campbell's conclusion: oil production and consumption should be regulated by governments.

"Many reserve figures are highly questionable," says Dr Campbell.

"Many great oil fields are increasingly old and inefficient. But I don't think oil is easy to produce with a sniper behind every palm tree."

"The way to increase energy security is to reduce demand," he says.


'Difficult times'

At ASPO's recent conference in Berlin, companies such as BP and Exxon and men such as Fatih Birol, chief economist of the International Energy Agency, began to talk to the proponents of the peak oil theory.

Whilst they may not agree with Dr Campbell's theories, their attendance highlighted ASPO's emerging importance in the oil debate.

In public, Mr Birol denied that supply would not be able to meet rising demand, especially from the buoyant economies in the USA, China and India.

But after his speech he seemed to change his tune.

"For the time being there is no spare capacity. But we expect demand to increase by the fourth quarter (of the year) by three million barrels a day."

He pinned his hopes for an increase in production squarely on troubled Saudi Arabia.

"If Saudi does not increase supply by 3 million barrels a day by the end of the year we will face, how can I say this, it will be very difficult. We will have difficult times. They must invest."


Can Saudi deliver?

But even Mr Birol admitted that Saudi production was "about flat".

Three million extra barrels a day would mean a huge 30% leap in output in just a few months.


North Sea oil production is in decline

When BBC News Online followed up by asking if this giant increase in production was actually possible rather than simply a desire he refused to answer. "You are from the press? This is not for you. This is not for the press."

Asking other delegates - admittedly supporters of the peak oil theory - whether such a steep increase was feasible, the answers were unambiguous: "absolutely out of the question," "completely impossible," and "3 million barrels - never, not even 300,000."

One delegate laughed so hard he had to support himself on a table.

Some recent figures tend to back up ASPO's outlook.

North Sea production is declining at an increasing rate, having peaked in 1999.

Not at the predicted flat rate of decline of 7%, but gradually accelerating from 7% to 8.5% to 11%.

And the number of major new oil fields discovered around the world fell to zero for the first time in 2003, despite an obvious increase in technological expertise.

"We need transparency with the figures," says Dr Campbell.

"This avoids profiteering from shortages, the collapse of poor countries and it will stimulate alternatives."

"Consumer countries need to be able to audit fields, but at the same time 'flat earth' economists who believe in endless growth need to change their ideas."

And Dr Campbell has a dire warning: "If the real figures were to come out there would be panic on the stock markets, in the end that would suit no one."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3777413.stm


The two most disturbing comments were:

1. Matt Simmons saying oil should be at $182/Barrel today! (almost 500% of what it is today)

2. Colin Campbell saying the real figures should not be released or it would cause the market to crash, which would serve no one. (Colin Campbell is a advisor for large oil companies, and countries)

[wig]

Oil coming off its recent highs? Who woulda thunk it? h34r:

[Rolo]

Well, if they could let the price hit $100/barrel, then current day renewable energy could compete, but thats a very bad situation, since we would have economic crisis.... better options are bigger tax credits for investments in renewable energy, less and smaller cars, energy consumption, and if that doesn´t work, then high tax on oil until people learn to use less

If that doesn´t work, then there might be money in boot refugees *to* Cuba - they have survived economic crisis for decades - going there would probably be like entering normality from economic mayhem