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Old 10-05-2003   #1
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I used Massey Computer ratings (http://www.mratings.com)
to compile the probability of each undefeated college football team remaining undefeated at the end of the regular season. Here are the probabilities:

Oklahoma 47.48 %
LSU 16.77
Nebraska 14.6
N Illinois 11.79
FSU 13.18
Minnesota 10.61
Arkansas 10.13
Miami 10.11
VTech 5.73
OSU 3.81
Using these, the probabilty of at least one team finishing the regular season undefeated (pre-league chamionships and bowl games) is: 81.2%
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Old 10-05-2003   #2
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OU will win it all. I plan to be in NO for the Sugar Bowl.
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Old 10-05-2003   #3
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texas will beat ou this weekend. i have my tix and i'm ready to finally win one against the maroon assholes

the first three i kinda felt like they deserved. after all. there isnt much else to do in oklahoma besides watch football and hate their betters (the longhorns)..but now we've just let it get out of hand and it's time to let stoops know that we just let him win those last 3



Last edited by Hooper at Oct 5 2003, 08:23 PM
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Old 10-06-2003   #4
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Hooper, maybe we should place a friendly bet. How about a hunting trip? Loser pays?
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Old 10-06-2003   #5
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It is nice to have the Sugar Bowl be the top bowl game this year. Should make it much more interesting....
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Old 10-06-2003   #6
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Quote:
Originally posted by Hooper@Oct 5 2003, 07:21 PM
texas will beat ou this weekend. i have my tix and i'm ready to finally win one against the maroon assholes

the first three i kinda felt like they deserved. after all. there isnt much else to do in oklahoma besides watch football and hate their betters (the longhorns)..but now we've just let it get out of hand and it's time to let stoops know that we just let him win those last 3
HAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAH

Gotta love the eternal optimists.
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Old 10-06-2003   #7
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Hooper,

dont be a sucker bro, if you wanna bet Shaw against OU,
your better off with OSU than Texas.


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Old 10-08-2003   #8
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Hooper and I placed a bet on the OU/TX game.

If OU wins, Hooper pays for me and 2 others to go hunting. Room, board, etc.

If Texas wins, I pay.

http://www.roughcreek.com
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Old 10-08-2003   #9
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yep. i'm lookin forward to guttin some wild boars this year. gonna be a shame to make brad pay for my usual outing
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Old 10-08-2003   #10
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Hooper, this year Greg will not be tying the animals to the trees. I will arrange for you to take a boar with your bare hands!
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Old 10-08-2003   #11
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Quote:
Originally posted by BradShaw@Oct 8 2003, 12:52 AM
Hooper and I placed a bet on the OU/TX game.
No point spread?
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Old 10-08-2003   #12
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Football is boring.
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Old 10-08-2003   #13
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football is boring? hee hee
OU baby
Brad and I are going to see OU vs Texas A&M
revenge
and I hope to hit the Sugar Bowl
as we crush FSU
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Old 10-08-2003   #14
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I ain't much of a sports fan; but I used to live there...Oklahoma could fuck up a wet dream!
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Old 10-08-2003   #15
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Quote:
No point spread?
nah. just a win loss bet.
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Old 10-08-2003   #16
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Quote:
Originally posted by Torone@Oct 8 2003, 07:14 AM
I ain't much of a sports fan; but I used to live there...Oklahoma could fuck up a wet dream!
Slow your roll Torone.

Oklahoma has alot of bad qualities, or lack there of, but they still
have the best football team in the nation, hands down.
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Old 10-08-2003   #17
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I think texas really does have a great chance in this game. Point spreads i'm seeing are oklahoma - 6.5 which is pretty friggin tiny given that they are #1

Go Horns!!!
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Old 10-08-2003   #18
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I do not think Hooper or I care about point spreads. I know he will feel no better if Texas loses by 6 versus 2.

Meni, A&M should be fun, my new tailgate BBQ should be here by then! Now I just need a hitch on the Ferrari!
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Old 10-08-2003   #19
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Quote:
Originally posted by BradShaw@Oct 8 2003, 10:39 AM
I do not think Hooper or I care about point spreads. I know he will feel no better if Texas loses by 6 versus 2.

Meni, A&M should be fun, my new tailgate BBQ should be here by then! Now I just need a hitch on the Ferrari!
Soooo,

Your planning a game without me?

I see, ok Brad, was going to get some content from you
for ICE, but now, Im forced to deal with your competitor.
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Old 10-08-2003   #20
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hey I forgot it was Texas - OU weekend.

I need to go do some stabbin' friday night and maybe some looting too.

I love the festivities
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Old 10-08-2003   #21
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i've forwarded your unamerican remarks to the appropriate authorities shok. :P
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Old 10-08-2003   #22
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I heard the teams want 3.5 mill each to keep playing at the fair
or else the red river shootout is going to home - home series
does the sugar bowl happen within 1 or 2 days of internext?
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Old 10-08-2003   #23
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Quote:
Originally posted by voodooman+Oct 8 2003, 09:18 AM-->
QUOTE (voodooman @ Oct 8 2003, 09:18 AM)
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Old 10-08-2003   #24
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since OU isn't playing KU this year, they might have a shot.

UNLV, Wyoming, Jacksonville State and Missouri have all crumbled under the crimson and blue steamroller from Lawrence.

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Old 10-09-2003   #25
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that is inherently flawed, ark, lsu, va. tech, miami and fsu all have a mitigating factor of 50% that has to pass before they can even remain on the list, making their total odds far less.

If you go by SoS, Certainly Oklahoma has a very good chance. but the fact that they are in a superconference (like lsu, ark) gives them one extra game and further changes the way their odds are calculated, whereas ohio state, miami, va tech, and florida state do not have the extra game,( in fact when you combine the extra games and see that all four of those teams in whole or in part have to contend with one another, they should be at the bottom on a percentage basis, having much more obsticles as variables, but i digress...)seeing as you are going by a system that assumes a 12 game schedule, when some of these teams play 13, and even 14. not to mention the loser of the BCS championship would have one loss.

In other words, much is yet TBD, and if you are going to judge teams to go undefeated, the only true way to get a clean control and variable would be to separate the teams into categories, accounting for the head to head, number of games and a multiple of differential variables.

IMHO.

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Old 10-09-2003   #26
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Oklahoma has a negativve running game, and is prone to the pass and special teams errors.

It would not surprise me if they lost this weekend, i am expecting them to win, but big receivers, a better line, and a constantly improving defense (add on a michael vickishyoung Q as long as the mack brown factor doesnt come in to play, texas has a shot.

an interesting side note. Miami will either get blown out or blow out, historically, their rate of loss by under seven (the spread) is negligible, while their percentages of wins by over seven points is astronomical.


Still being a buckeye, an oklahoma loss, a miami win, and a future miami loss to va. tech, and a big win at camp randall this weekend work out best for my alma mater
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Old 10-09-2003   #27
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Quote:
Originally posted by grimm@Oct 8 2003, 08:22 PM
that is inherently flawed, ark, lsu, va. tech, miami and fsu all have a mitigating factor of 50% that has to pass before they can even remain on the list, making their total odds far less.

If you go by SoS, Certainly Oklahoma has a very good chance. but the fact that they are in a superconference (like lsu, ark) gives them one extra game and further changes the way their odds are calculated, whereas ohio state, miami, va tech, and florida state do not have the extra game,( in fact when you combine the extra games and see that all four of those teams in whole or in part have to contend with one another, they should be at the bottom on a percentage basis, having much more obsticles as variables, but i digress...)seeing as you are going by a system that assumes a 12 game schedule, when some of these teams play 13, and even 14. not to mention the loser of the BCS championship would have one loss.

In other words, much is yet TBD, and if you are going to judge teams to go undefeated, the only true way to get a clean control and variable would be to separate the teams into categories, accounting for the head to head, number of games and a multiple of differential variables.

IMHO.

-Grimm
correct the "all four" to everyone except the four mentioned, and it will read a lot better
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Old 10-09-2003   #28
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College Football is boring and ignorant

Why watch nobodies that will never play one down in the NFL

You're settling for garbage when the best athletes in the world play on Sunday

College Football =

Wake me when it's over and it's done
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Old 10-09-2003   #29
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with a point spread, i will take all comers
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Old 10-09-2003   #30
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Quote:
Originally posted by voodooman@Oct 8 2003, 10:18 AM
but they still
have the best football team in the nation, hands down.
Um I think that is the Kansas City Chiefs

at least this week
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Old 10-09-2003   #31
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Quote:
Originally posted by Vick@Oct 8 2003, 11:30 PM
College Football is boring and ignorant

Why watch nobodies that will never play one down in the NFL

You're settling for garbage when the best athletes in the world play on Sunday
Hey Vick,

Check this one out. The 2001 Miami Hurricanes had 33 players that are or will play in the NFL. That's more than the Bengals! ;-) ;-)
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Old 10-09-2003   #32
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Quote:
Originally posted by grimm@Oct 8 2003, 11:28 PM
Oklahoma has a negativve running game, and is prone to the pass and special teams errors.

It would not surprise me if they lost this weekend, i am expecting them to win, but big receivers, a better line, and a constantly improving defense (add on a michael vickishyoung Q as long as the mack brown factor doesnt come in to play, texas has a shot.

an interesting side note. Miami will either get blown out or blow out, historically, their rate of loss by under seven (the spread) is negligible, while their percentages of wins by over seven points is astronomical.


Still being a buckeye, an oklahoma loss, a miami win, and a future miami loss to va. tech, and a big win at camp randall this weekend work out best for my alma mater
Our running game isn't that bad
and we fixed the punting
2 step now
and special teams?
didn't perkins run for 277 punt return yards and 3 tds?
Bradley ran a kick off back 100 yards Saturday
we will roll over anyone
and check out WR's
6 deep
not 1 a senior
i think
lemme check later
boomer sooner
and boys, we recruit like no other
OU is a dynasty
oh so is Miami
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Old 10-09-2003   #33
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Quote:
Originally posted by grimm@Oct 8 2003, 11:22 PM
that is inherently flawed, ark, lsu, va. tech, miami and fsu all have a mitigating factor of 50% that has to pass before they can even remain on the list, making their total odds far less.

If you go by SoS, Certainly Oklahoma has a very good chance. but the fact that they are in a superconference (like lsu, ark) gives them one extra game and further changes the way their odds are calculated, whereas ohio state, miami, va tech, and florida state do not have the extra game,( in fact when you combine the extra games and see that all four of those teams in whole or in part have to contend with one another, they should be at the bottom on a percentage basis, having much more obsticles as variables, but i digress...)seeing as you are going by a system that assumes a 12 game schedule, when some of these teams play 13, and even 14. not to mention the loser of the BCS championship would have one loss.

In other words, much is yet TBD, and if you are going to judge teams to go undefeated, the only true way to get a clean control and variable would be to separate the teams into categories, accounting for the head to head, number of games and a multiple of differential variables.

IMHO.

-Grimm
Grimm,

You should know I'm more careful than that. I took the good space to say both prior to league championships and bowl games and "at the end of the regular season". ;-)

Yes, and as you said each of those 6 teams has a 50% "mitigating factor" or so which is exactly why Oklahoma's odds of going undefeated are better.

Also, I didn't assume the length of the schedule and head to head schedule is how the odds were determined. Now you could argue the merit of using computer generated win/loss probabilities for each head-to-head game but that is another debate entirely.



Last edited by Colin at Oct 9 2003, 06:37 AM
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Old 10-09-2003   #34
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BTW. Look at OSU. Great team but 5 top 25 teams left.

#22 Wisconsin 5-1
#15 Iowa 5-1
#23 Michigan St 5-1
#20 Purdue 4-1
@ #19 Michigan 4-2

Anyway, why does OSU play 8 home games and 4 road games? Weird.
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Old 10-09-2003   #35
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I fear...
no one
OU fears no one
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Old 10-09-2003   #36
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Quote:
Originally posted by Meni@Oct 9 2003, 07:52 AM
I fear...
no one
OU fears no one
You feared no one last year too ;-)
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Old 10-09-2003   #37
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Quote:
Originally posted by eatapeach@Oct 8 2003, 05:28 PM
since OU isn't playing KU this year, they might have a shot.

UNLV, Wyoming, Jacksonville State and Missouri have all crumbled under the crimson and blue steamroller from Lawrence.

Hell yeah, Finally a fellow Jayhawker.
Should have NW to that list of downed teams too.

I would love to see OU and KU play, this year anyways.
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Old 10-09-2003   #38
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no Colin
last year
with Hybil
i did fear shit
now with White
and the best D ever
I fear nothing
but Serge's anal penetration
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Old 10-09-2003   #39
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Grimm fuck you;-)

You should come out for the game and buy me a ticket!
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Old 10-10-2003   #40
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Quote:
Originally posted by Meni@Oct 9 2003, 09:57 AM
the best D ever
I'll take the Pepsi challenge. 1991 (12-0) Miami Hurricanes. Points given up.

---------------------------------
(Rankings at time of game)

Arkansas 3
#10 Houston 10
Tulsa 10
Oklahoma State 3
#9 Penn State 20
Long Beach State 0
Arizona 9
West Virginia 3
#1 Florida State 16
Boston College 14
San Diego State 12
Nebraska 0

Bowl game. Shutout Nebraska 22-0. Nebraska went into game with the nations #1 offense and had only 1 yard in the entire first quarter.
Held vaunted running game to 82 yards.

On the season: 100 points in 12 games.

---------------------------
Oklahoma so far this year. (Not sure on rankings).

North Texas 3
Alabama 13
Fresno State 28
UCLA 24
Iowa State 7

74 points in 5 games.



Last edited by Colin at Oct 10 2003, 06:27 AM
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Old 10-10-2003   #41
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This one's for Dan. 1979 (12-0) Alabama.

67 points given up in 12 games. 5 shutouts.
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Old 10-10-2003   #42
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Colin, we put in mass subs in every game
you deal with statistics
statistics lie
put on your tv
and watch the D Saturday

espn.com
Red River Shootout
The oddsmakers have not been able to figure out this rivalry. Until this game, Mack Brown's side has been expected to win each year, but lost the last three. Finally, Oklahoma is the favorite. That's a pretty easy call, actually.


Bob Stoops says this is the best Oklahoma team he's coached.
There's something of a myth at work here. Some fans want to believe that Texas has a huge edge in number of thoroughbreds in the stable and that, somehow, the scrappy OU overachievers just find ways to win. Nonsense. OU has phenomenal talent all the way down the defensive two deep. Texas has had great offensive skill people the last few years and sent tackles like Leonard Davis and Mike Williams to the NFL. But OU hasn't exactly had backs and receivers off the scrap heap.

Bob Stoops rarely blows smoke and is not often unguarded in his rhetoric. So take note when he says THIS is his best OU team. That would include the 2000 national title team that waxed Texas, 63-14. There's no reason to doubt Stoops. The Sooners have a more complete, versatile offense than the one that limped down the stretch three years ago.

The defense is now without two excellent linebackers, with Pasha Jackson joining surgery case Lance Mitchell on the sidelines for a couple of weeks with a sprained MCL. That'll hurt, no doubt. But the offensive line from Texas I watched up close last weekend will have some serious trouble with Tommie Harris and the Sooners' front.

Mack Brown has a problem: using Vince Young may spark the offense and give provide better mobility, but it also lessens the potential value of Roy Williams. Young is not yet an accomplished passer. With him running the show, receivers become blockers more than catchers. Williams said as much this week. Young is a special option quarterback, though, the kind that can turn the corner and lean forward for five yards before you know what's hit you and he can also take it 60 yards to the house.

Chance Mock is the guy with the better mastery of the passing game, but will he be able to deliver before he's buried? The defensive tackles of Kansas State caused big trouble for UT and they're not in Harris' class. At times, the Horns second offensive line looked more physical and inspired last Saturday as they rotated in during Young's early series.

I see trouble for Texas Saturday.
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Old 10-10-2003   #43
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Quote:
Originally posted by Meni@Oct 10 2003, 08:30 AM
Colin, we put in mass subs in every game
you deal with statistics
statistics lie
put on your tv
and watch the D Saturday
These are hardly statistics meant to confuse matters. It's just a list of points given up in games. ;-)

There's a problem with what you're saying. Your claiming that something is "the best" at something while ignoring all the competition. "The best" by definition means better than all other competitors. And how many of the great defenses of the past few decades can you name that you "watched on tv" and why are they all not as good as OK in your opinion?

How do you think a team that only gave up 20 points once and shutout the #1 offense in the nation looked on TV? Fortunately I remember. Needless to say a team that only surrendered 20 points once in an entire season is going to look pretty amazing.

Any team blowing out their opponents has lots of subs. That's not just in OK. ;-)

I'd like to point to a team other than my own favorite though because I know what bias can do - which evidently has you in its grip. ;-) Unfortunately, I don't know a team that performed better defensively than the '91 Canes from the past 2 decades. Maybe there is one. Assuming that players get bigger, better, and faster and that defensive strategy improves there should be a cut-off point going back. Maybe a fair benchmark is to look at teams recent enough that there is still NFL talent that was playing in those years. Otherwise someone could go back and look at Yale in 1888, a team that didn't give up a single point for an entire year. Oh, Walter Camp.

You've watched enough TV over the years to judge a team as "best defense ever" and are willing to do it based on 5 games played against teams with average offenses? Texas is one of the top offenses in the country. I'd say shutting them out would be equivalent to the '91 Miami defense's accomplishment against the #1 offense at the time, Nebraska. You don't need statistics to know that holding the #1 offense in the nation to 0 points is a sign of greatness.

I'll give you another team I think has a better D. 1987 Oklahoma.



Last edited by Colin at Oct 10 2003, 09:09 AM
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Old 10-10-2003   #44
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Oh,and not trying to "dis" Oklahoma. They are possibly the best team this year but that's not entirely clear yet. They're very talented. Most of the top teams haven't played much of a schedule at all yet though. Everyone is fairly untested.

Until someone beats the Buckeyes they're number one in my book.



Last edited by Colin at Oct 10 2003, 09:17 AM
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Old 10-10-2003   #45
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Originally posted by Colin@Oct 10 2003, 06:33 AM
This one's for Dan. 1979 (12-0) Alabama.

67 points given up in 12 games. 5 shutouts.
oh the memories, 20 years old in New orleans for new years and the sugar bowl

colin, the '92 D was pretty special ( I know YOU remember that one
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Old 10-10-2003   #46
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« Previous Thread | Next Thread »
Originally posted by dantheman+Oct 10 2003, 09:47 AM-->
QUOTE (dantheman @ Oct 10 2003, 09:47 AM)
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Old 10-10-2003   #47
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did I say ever
oops
I mean best D this century
hee hee
I think our 1st string D hasn't given up too many points
I know we allow td's on special teams
and interception return
that how Iowa State scored
we got 2 LB out
hmmm
I hope that Texas frosh don't start running around
we might not catch him
prediction
OU 34
Texas 10



Last edited by Meni at Oct 10 2003, 11:07 AM
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Old 10-10-2003   #48
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OU rolls here no problem. Hooper you shoulda taken the points, but it probably wouldn't matter as the LongHorns are going to get blown out. At least you get to enjoy your loss and go hunting

Here's some interesteing reading for ya

http://covers.com/data/ncf/game/g8_11000.html

http://covers.com/post01/showmessage.asp?s...87&ur=142370433
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Old 10-11-2003   #49
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OK my prediction was off
65-13 boomer sooner
we roll over Texas
bring on the cane's
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Old 10-11-2003   #50
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OU looked pretty damn impressive....

Great defense. Dynamic offense. I cannot see anyone beating them, not even Miami or OSU.
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