Bush back on top by 8% among likely voters -Gallup

Almighty Colin · 10-18-2004

As of right now, the popular vote is leaning to Bush and the electorals a tie. Will be interesting to see if Republicans complain about electoral system if Bush wins popular vote and Kerry the electorals.

From Gallup::

"President Bush has moved back ahead of Sen. John Kerry in the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll. Among likely voters, Bush is ahead of Kerry by a 52% to 44% margin, exactly the same as in the last Gallup Poll conducted before the presidential debates began in late September. Among registered voters, Bush has a 49% to 46% margin over Kerry. The Oct. 14-16 poll suggests that Kerry’s perceived strong performance in the presidential debates may have had only a temporary effect on the structure of the race. Republicans have again become more enthusiastic than Democrats about their votes. More generally, a high percentage of voters say this election matters more than most."

More importantly ...

"Despite the lead Bush has opened up nationally, the two candidates are essentially tied among likely voters in the 16 competitive showdown states in which the race for electoral votes is being fought. This suggests that some of Bush's current national gains may in essence be "lost" in states where the election outcome is fairly certain to be strongly for Bush or strongly for Kerry."

Interestingly ...
"These data reinforce the conclusion that debate performance per se has rarely been highly correlated with abrupt or substantial shifts in the structures of presidential races. Even in years when it was widely accepted that a candidate had a poor debate (e.g., Gerald Ford in 1976 and Ronald Reagan in 1984), the debate loser either continued to gain on his challenger (Ford) or maintained his very significant lead (Reagan)."

Does Bush deserve to be re-elected? ...
"Fifty-three percent of likely voters now say that Bush "deserves to be re-elected," up from 48% in a mid-July poll. Although this number generally moves up and down in close relationship to the basic Bush versus Kerry ballot, it is an important separate indicator of an incumbent's chances for re-election when it is above 50%."

Mike AI · 10-18-2004

It's going to be a close election. There will also be hundreds of lawsuits, and other incidents of voter fraud, and such. The Democrats are going to use armies of attornies to disrupte the election process, throwing more doubt about the process in the minds of the country. There is still a big group of Dems who don't beleive Bush is legitimate President. Even when their Bible, the New York Times published and stated that Bush DID win Florida.

It is going to be a mess.

PornoDoggy · 10-18-2004

Quote:

Originally posted by Colin@Oct 18 2004, 06:57 AM
As of right now, the popular vote is leaning to Bush and the electorals a tie. Will be interesting to see if Republicans complain about electoral system if Bush wins popular vote and Kerry the electorals.

Oh, please. That is about as interesting as predicting the reaction of fans of two Junior High School football teams to who wins the homecoming football game.

If you don't think that the Republicans have their own armies of attorneys that they will not hesitate to use, you are stupid.

If you don't think the Republicans would have done the EXACT same thing in Florida last election if Bush had been declared the loser, I have some Enron stock available for a very reasonable price.

Almighty Colin · 10-18-2004

Quote:

Originally posted by PornoDoggy@Oct 18 2004, 01:01 PM
Oh, please. That is about as interesting as predicting the reaction of fans of two Junior High School football teams to who wins the homecoming football game.

If you don't think that the Republicans have their own armies of attorneys that they will not hesitate to use, you are stupid.

If you don't think the Republicans would have done the EXACT same thing in Florida last election if Bush had been declared the loser, I have some Enron stock available for a very reasonable price.

You're right. I should have written "Will be interesting to see Republicans complain about the electoral system if Bush wins the popular vote and Kerry the electorals."

And maybe substitute the word "entertaining" in there.

10-18-2004	#1
Almighty Colin Members Want to see your own Advertising Here! Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 8,059	As of right now, the popular vote is leaning to Bush and the electorals a tie. Will be interesting to see if Republicans complain about electoral system if Bush wins popular vote and Kerry the electorals. From Gallup:: "President Bush has moved back ahead of Sen. John Kerry in the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll. Among likely voters, Bush is ahead of Kerry by a 52% to 44% margin, exactly the same as in the last Gallup Poll conducted before the presidential debates began in late September. Among registered voters, Bush has a 49% to 46% margin over Kerry. The Oct. 14-16 poll suggests that Kerry’s perceived strong performance in the presidential debates may have had only a temporary effect on the structure of the race. Republicans have again become more enthusiastic than Democrats about their votes. More generally, a high percentage of voters say this election matters more than most." More importantly ... "Despite the lead Bush has opened up nationally, the two candidates are essentially tied among likely voters in the 16 competitive showdown states in which the race for electoral votes is being fought. This suggests that some of Bush's current national gains may in essence be "lost" in states where the election outcome is fairly certain to be strongly for Bush or strongly for Kerry." Interestingly ... "These data reinforce the conclusion that debate performance per se has rarely been highly correlated with abrupt or substantial shifts in the structures of presidential races. Even in years when it was widely accepted that a candidate had a poor debate (e.g., Gerald Ford in 1976 and Ronald Reagan in 1984), the debate loser either continued to gain on his challenger (Ford) or maintained his very significant lead (Reagan)." Does Bush deserve to be re-elected? ... "Fifty-three percent of likely voters now say that Bush "deserves to be re-elected," up from 48% in a mid-July poll. Although this number generally moves up and down in close relationship to the basic Bush versus Kerry ballot, it is an important separate indicator of an incumbent's chances for re-election when it is above 50%." __________________ Almighty Content. Your one stop for live content. Secret Friends, LATINA Secret Friends , My Cam Friends

10-18-2004	#2
Mike AI Administrator Want to see your own Advertising Here! Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 11,618	It's going to be a close election. There will also be hundreds of lawsuits, and other incidents of voter fraud, and such. The Democrats are going to use armies of attornies to disrupte the election process, throwing more doubt about the process in the minds of the country. There is still a big group of Dems who don't beleive Bush is legitimate President. Even when their Bible, the New York Times published and stated that Bush DID win Florida. It is going to be a mess. __________________ Make big money on your Domains! Why wait 40 days to get paid with the other guys? Parked.com pays the most for your traffic, and cuts checks twice a month!