Who called the "top" on oil?

[RawAlex]

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/print_stor...&siteid=myyahoo

$42 on futures... in the summer that is a pretty big number to work from. If the fall / early winter is cold, I could see where $50 oil is possible.

How are you guys doing playing the other side?

Alex

[Rolo]

If saudi arabia is hit with massive coordinated terror attacks, then it could easily go to $80-100... and even wores, if someone finds out that oil is not an unlimited resource, then $150-XXX.







* disclaimer - yes, I´m a pessimist looking at the oil prices, but that is probably because I want the western world to speed up the change from oil to renewable energy, and the sooner prices rise, the more time we will have to make the change...

[wig]

Originally posted by RawAlex@Jul 19 2004, 01:54 PM
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/print_stor...&siteid=myyahoo

$42 on futures... in the summer that is a pretty big number to work from. If the fall / early winter is cold, I could see where $50 oil is possible.

How are you guys doing playing the other side?

Alex

I trade primarily three futures markets... equities, interest rates and metals. Because of the margin/leverage, my futures account represents about 5% of my portfolio.

I rarely if ever trade oil, but I did sell a very small position when I said it would peak. Sold 2 contracts at 42.00 and bot them back the next day at 39.90.

That's $4200 profit on a $6750 margin in 12 hours.

There's an old saying... bears make money, bulls make money and hogs get slaughtered.

When you can consistently make 50% - 600% a year in a futures trading account, I'll be interested in what you have to say.

[wig]

Originally posted by Rolo@Jul 19 2004, 02:32 PM
If saudi arabia is hit with massive coordinated terror attacks, then it could easily go to $80-100... and even wores, if someone finds out that oil is not an unlimited resource, then $150-XXX.







* disclaimer - yes, I´m a pessimist looking at the oil prices, but that is probably because I want the western world to speed up the change from oil to renewable energy, and the sooner prices rise, the more time we will have to make the change...

A collapsing economy is a heavy price to pay for renewable energy, which is exactly what would happen if Oil went to $150+.

I am more than happy paying $1.68 for diesel.





Note: I am all for renewable energy, but a smooth transition is preferred to anarchy in global financial markets.

[Rolo]

Originally posted by wig@Jul 19 2004, 11:51 AM
Note: I am all for renewable energy, but a smooth transition is preferred to anarchy in global financial markets.

I very much agree with you, however our politicians are still sleeping trying to increase world economy on a limited resource. I would rather have high prices, while we still have oil, than have high prices, when oil will be less than enough to keep the world going. We can afford $100 today, but could we afford $150 when we have no jobs?

The most intelligent way to deal with the energy problem long term, is by politician showing leadership, however that is as rare today as new oil fields.

[wig]

Originally posted by Rolo+Jul 19 2004, 03:34 PM-->