Iraqi Insurgency

[Buff]

Obviously, if you're an Iraqi insurgent, you're in a bit of a pickle right now.

You've got a really bad PR problem. You need to do something about that, or your people are going to give up and start melting back into the civilian population. But Hussein's captured, and you don't know what he's telling us. I'm sure he wasn't tightly involved with your organization, but you don't know what he knows, and therefore don't know which of your assets are compromised and which aren't. So the smart thing for you to do would be to put your near-term activities on hold, sever contact with the outside, and wait for most of the shit to roll downhill.

But again, there's that PR problem. Wait, and your movement might very well be dead by the time you get around to doing anything with it.

Therefore you're in the unpleasant position of having to implement plans that aren't ready, involving people and places that we might already know about, with people of unknown reliability.

Prediction: A month or so of elevated, but frequently confused and cluster-fuckish terrorist activity, at which point the insurgency will fall off markedly.