First downs

Almighty Colin · 10-01-2003

http://www.twominutewarning.com/mb1.htm

So far this year ...

Indianapolis picks up the next first down 72.1% of the time.
Tampa Bay gives up a first down only 46.7% of the time.

I can multiply ...

The odds of getting three first downs in a row against the Bucs is only 10%.

DrGuile · 10-01-2003

But does it really say all that much?

Isnt W-L the only stats that really matter?

Just for example, a team that gets a major lead in the first half will always give up a lot of first downs when they switch to a Prevent defense, etc...

It always makes me laugh when they pull stats that show team that run for a 100 yards or more in the game win very often, and vice-versa.

Well DUH einsten, when a team gets a lead, they will pound the run until time runs out. While if they are loosing, they will go to the air and abandon the running game.

Is it "Teams that run wins" or "Team that are winning, run"

Last edited by DrGuile at Oct 1 2003, 02:50 PM

Jesse_DD · 10-01-2003

Colin - write one of those little programs of yours and figure out how well this worked out for determining a winner (for all of last year). If you find anything don't tell anyone but me and we'll go to vegas next week.

Almighty Colin · 10-01-2003

Quote:

Originally posted by DrGuile@Oct 1 2003, 02:48 PM
Is it "Teams that run wins" or "Team that are winning, run"

Yup. I've always thought that too. Teams that are winning run more than the other way around.

Now as to the question as to whether it means anything. Won/lost record itself is only a fair measure of team strength since strength of schedule can easily be worth a few wins or losses.

What statistic would best rate offenses? Points scored? That's too influenced by field position. Yards per game? Too influenced by defensive performance (Teams with good defenses get the ball more). I think first down conversion percentage is pretty good especially when combined with other factors.

Almighty Colin · 10-01-2003

Quote:

Originally posted by Jesse_DD@Oct 1 2003, 02:57 PM
Colin - write one of those little programs of yours and figure out how well this worked out for determining a winner (for all of last year). If you find anything don't tell anyone but me and we'll go to vegas next week.

Already done. Check your mail. ;-)

10-01-2003	#1
Almighty Colin Members Want to see your own Advertising Here! Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 8,059	http://www.twominutewarning.com/mb1.htm So far this year ... Indianapolis picks up the next first down 72.1% of the time. Tampa Bay gives up a first down only 46.7% of the time. I can multiply ... The odds of getting three first downs in a row against the Bucs is only 10%. __________________ Almighty Content. Your one stop for live content. Secret Friends, LATINA Secret Friends , My Cam Friends

10-01-2003	#2
DrGuile french with welsh tendancies Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 2,007	But does it really say all that much? Isnt W-L the only stats that really matter? Just for example, a team that gets a major lead in the first half will always give up a lot of first downs when they switch to a Prevent defense, etc... It always makes me laugh when they pull stats that show team that run for a 100 yards or more in the game win very often, and vice-versa. Well DUH einsten, when a team gets a lead, they will pound the run until time runs out. While if they are loosing, they will go to the air and abandon the running game. Is it "Teams that run wins" or "Team that are winning, run" Last edited by DrGuile at Oct 1 2003, 02:50 PM __________________ LiveBucks / Privatefeeds - Giving you money since 1999 Up to 40% Commission! 25% Webmaster Referal

10-01-2003	#3
Jesse_DD Members Join Date: Mar 2003 Posts: 336	Colin - write one of those little programs of yours and figure out how well this worked out for determining a winner (for all of last year). If you find anything don't tell anyone but me and we'll go to vegas next week. __________________ Almighty Content - Free Live Content