Re: .xxx passed.
Tony, you got it. There are two possible courses of action in the next 12 - 24 months. Either politicians in various countries will start mandating that adult / porn sites must be on .XXX (which appears would be able to pass the 1st amendment, in the same manner as zoning bylaws), or Visa and Mastercard will push for all adult to be on .XXX domains only.
In the US, it is very likely that some ISPs will decline to provide DNS lookups for .xxx, and potentially even peering providers may refuse routes from .xxx domains. Outside of the US, it is very likely that goverments (example in Germany) would force ISPs to not provide .XXX access.
The net effect over time is that porn gets squeezed into a ghetto, and then the various authorities start building walls around the ghetto. The final step is when they flood the ghetto by forcing ISPs to "get adult certification" for users before allowing them access to .XXX domains.
This of course only happens if nobody sues ICANN in the next 90 days.
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