You could well be right.
A very curious thing happened this last week...
Up until then, whenever crude oil rose in price so did all the energy stocks. WHen it fell so did energy. But last week after crude fell from $65 to about $60.50 a barrel for an intraday low (see crude oil chart below)...
When oil started going back UP in price, energy stocks continued FALLING! And when crude oil started to FALL again energy stocks started RISING.
This is very interesting indeed. I think it marks a deliberate seperation of crude oil from energy stocks. There must be some big investment houses forcing this. Perhaps they think they can control the rise of crude this way. I am watching fascinated at the moment.
I cannot believe this can continue and at some point crude oil prices and energy stock prices will again parallel each other. So my current guess is that when the energy market finds a bottom it cannot push through (probably there will be three attempts), and we should know at the close today if we possibly hit the third one (see the oil sector chart below)...
... that when this happens it may start straightening out. But yes I agree there is probably a good run up in energy until the spring due. Then once winter fuel conmsumption is down the markets will reassess themselves.
Another problem I see is that when everyone gets into oil during the next run up the big boys will suddenly sell off at some point. That will need to be watched out for. It'll happen after one of the day's biggest rises ever I should think.