Google is positioned to be a player for a long time and continues to make the right moves. Will they hang onto number 1? That's tougher to call, but I dont look for them to fade away into a shadow of themselves like so many other engines have done.
For one thing, they are the first engine to survive a yahoo cast off. In the past, yahoo could bring an engine up by using that engines results to supplement it's own. But as soon as Yahoo doesn't renew that contract and picks a new partner, the old one falls like a rock. It happened to Altavista, Inktomi, etc. Google survived mostly unscathed. Yahoo has bought up most of the other engines and their technology to fold into their own now. So effectively we now have 3 main players: Google, Yahoo and Microsoft.
Google is wisely spreading their wings with everything from the mapping software seen in another thread to Gmail to eBlogger. This puts them on ground to compete with Yahoo and Microsoft in the community aspect of things.
Microsoft is the 800 pound gorilla, and usually gets anything it wants. But in this case, Google has been hiring some of Microsoft's brightest stars away for the last couple of years. Dont be surprised to see a Google browser based on Mozilla this year. Further, dont be surprised if it doesn't get scooped up as the default browser by some major ISPs.
The real winner 5 years down the road is the one who can deliver custom content directly to the surfer based on that surfers own tastes and habits. There's more pieces to that than just an engine. I give Google a slight edge because their technology in this regard is several steps ahead of both Microsoft and Yahoo.
No matter which one emerges with a lead in that field, look for the remaining two to merge.
Now I'll put my crystal ball away.
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