I think the next Pope will probably come from South America, Nigeria or India. There are very few indicators on how Popes are actually elected, but the one modern indicator was the election of John Paul II. Voted in at the time of the Cold War, choosing a Pope that came from 'behind the Iron Curtain" was a "message for the times", IMHO.
So looking at things now, what is the message the Church would want to send at the start of the third millenium? To me, that would be that it is not a white, European-based Church but something more embracing the world as a whole. How best to do that except to take someone from a third world country.
Anyway, that's my thinking. I could be wrong very easily though, because again the Church has never been forthcoming on the behind the scenes politics or method of electing Popes, so they could easily do the opposite. We shall see.
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