Quote:
Originally posted by Serge_Oprano@Nov 18 2004, 04:50 AM
grimm,
your answer AND logic was incorrect and STILL is incorrect, because your chances of picking up the car by switching your original decission is NOT 50%...
it's 66%!!! probability to pick the car instead of goat when you switch!
;-))))
|
this makes no sense. your probability of picking the goat would not stay the same.
instead of 1/3 doors, you have elimiated 1 door, making the new choice 1/2, or 50/50.
You are correct this far.from a mathematical perspective, it would remain constant, since it is still the original problem we are trying to solve. there could be three open doors, and the odds would still be 1/3 for the BMW.
but when you added a personal choice to it,it became a human Logic problem, and logic dictates fluid thinking, and when the third door was open, the logic problem changed. obviously the contestant seeing the goat, would shift the way she thought about the problem. She would not see it as 1/3 she would see it as 1/2 with one door being eliminated. the calculator would see it as 1/3
