Quote:
Originally posted by Serge_Oprano@Nov 18 2004, 04:10 AM
You are on TV show,
there are 3 doors,
behind 2 of them there is a goat,
behind one is new BMW
you opened the door and the host opens another door to show you it has a goat behind it. The host offers you to change your mind and pick up the other unopened door.
Question:
do you have
1) better chances by opening the other door?
2) worse chances by opening the other door
3) the same chances by opening the other door?
...and why?
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You have an equal chance by opting to open the other door.
You have a 66% chance of picking a goat on the first choice, the host then opens a door revealing a goat, cutting that down to a 66% chance of one of the doors containing a goat which, in actuality turns out to be a 50% chance you either have the goat or the BMW.