Quote:
Originally posted by RawAlex@Nov 1 2004, 07:35 PM
As an eample, the Electoral-vote site gives the undecided to Kerry at 2:1. Not entirely sure why the heck they do that, but there ya go. That lack of transparancy on many of these sites makes them hard to take seriously.
I have been interested that many of these sites have shown the same trend in the last 7 to 10 days, with Kerry catching up to or passing Bush and pulling ahead by EC, without there being a major shift in the popular vote polls. I think of this as a clear indication of the fact that the EC gives more power to some votes, and less to others.
Alex
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EC is all over the place. They just uses the latest poll regardless of where it came from.
So they might use a poll showing an 5% advantage for Kerry in a state and then a new poll from Survey USA will come out showing a 4% advantage to Bush in the same state and the result swings.
EC's current electoral predictor is now ... Kerry 262 Bush 261 because of just such a thing.
BTW, Everyone uses that same 2/3 factor. Traditionally, 2/3 of the undecided voters in the last days will vote for the challenger.