Quote:
Originally posted by Biggy@Oct 27 2004, 12:18 AM
Monk,
if you believe in gold, then you are predicting a down turn in the economy?
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Most importantly, the US dollar is in a shitload of trouble... that has led to a substantial portion of gold's up move to date. But even separately from that, gold is making a move lately against the other currencies as well..... this means there is more going on here than just the weak dollar, since gold is also moving up in value against the euro, etc.
Also, inflation is driving up the price of gold (and is bad for the markets) If you look at the charts for almost any commodity, including OIL and steel ... they all look to be in major bull markets that will last for quite awhile.
What else is going on? Hard to say for sure, but things like terrorism and political instability around the world help gold, it being a safe haven.
But.... yes, I think that we are in a MAJOR downturn in the economy and stock markets... this up move we have felt since early 2003 IMHO is a temporary thing...... nothing goes straight down.
The Nasdaq dropped from 5100 to 1100 and I think we may bounce as high as 3100 in this upmove before the down move starts again. Even if the Nasdaq doesn't completely crater in the future..... it is likely to bounce up and down for many years without ever making a 'major' move up... the stock market cannot just dust itself off and keep going after the major shellacking it took.... it would at least have to consolidate (bounce around) for several years (I'm talking 10-15 more years)