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RawAlex · 07-30-2004

Mike, Bush may be leaning left during the run up to the convention, but trust me, his leash is still tied to a conservative / christian fundamentalist dog house. If they feel him tugging too hard, they will pull him back in a second. I suspect the convention will be filled with the Bob Jones types, all trying to play that side of the field. God will be praised. Bush will suckle up to the teat of conservative power, clearly and publically.

As for the campaign itself, the Democrats are doing all they can, trying to keep that mask of reasonableness on, and so far they are pulling it off. The ads I have seen on TV seem to be pretty much level and not falling far into attack mode. August will be a little light for them in the ad department, as they are starting to spend in the actual campaign money, rather than the more or less unlimited pre-acceptance cash. Bush gets an extra two weeks (albiet the worst two weeks for TV) to get his message out all but unopposed.

Bush's camp is also doing the best thing: Staying way the heck out of the news. They are staying off the front page, and off the media train, and out of the public eye. I think the theory is "if they can't see us, they can't see us screwing up". There is very very little that Bush and his team can do now that would help them in the polls, and many things they can trip over. So they are playing it VERY cool. The convention will put them back in the spotlight again, and I think that will be a very negative time for them, as they return back to their roots, back to their "war is great" message, back to their "we will wage war everywhere anytime" bully message, and it will scare off the undecideds and the people who are against all the agression shown in the last 3.5 years.

Bush will win if he shuts up and controls the convention, keeping the christians and war mongers off the stage, and if he speaks a clear and definate middle road message. He will lose big time if he plays up to the party faithful with the religeous overtones that scare so many people away.

Alex

07-30-2004	#37
RawAlex Members $100 for every ImLive sign-up Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 4,036	Mike, Bush may be leaning left during the run up to the convention, but trust me, his leash is still tied to a conservative / christian fundamentalist dog house. If they feel him tugging too hard, they will pull him back in a second. I suspect the convention will be filled with the Bob Jones types, all trying to play that side of the field. God will be praised. Bush will suckle up to the teat of conservative power, clearly and publically. As for the campaign itself, the Democrats are doing all they can, trying to keep that mask of reasonableness on, and so far they are pulling it off. The ads I have seen on TV seem to be pretty much level and not falling far into attack mode. August will be a little light for them in the ad department, as they are starting to spend in the actual campaign money, rather than the more or less unlimited pre-acceptance cash. Bush gets an extra two weeks (albiet the worst two weeks for TV) to get his message out all but unopposed. Bush's camp is also doing the best thing: Staying way the heck out of the news. They are staying off the front page, and off the media train, and out of the public eye. I think the theory is "if they can't see us, they can't see us screwing up". There is very very little that Bush and his team can do now that would help them in the polls, and many things they can trip over. So they are playing it VERY cool. The convention will put them back in the spotlight again, and I think that will be a very negative time for them, as they return back to their roots, back to their "war is great" message, back to their "we will wage war everywhere anytime" bully message, and it will scare off the undecideds and the people who are against all the agression shown in the last 3.5 years. Bush will win if he shuts up and controls the convention, keeping the christians and war mongers off the stage, and if he speaks a clear and definate middle road message. He will lose big time if he plays up to the party faithful with the religeous overtones that scare so many people away. Alex __________________ Let's go to the edge of disaster Push the pedal and go a little faster Let's slam into a wall at ramming speed Let's go to the edge of a mountain Jump off and lets start countin' Hit the ground and tell me if it bleeds