Unless Kerry gets a big jump from the convention and is able to get some more independents to go his way, it's going to be close. Analysis from Rasmussen, the same page Grimm linked to, states the following.
"Kerry's lead is more fragile than it appears. If the Senator lost a single percentage point in just four states (Florida, Missouri, Pennsylvania, and Ohio), President Bush would hold the lead."
If the election were held today it would be decided by how many voters in a few states got stuck in traffic jams and couldn't make it to the polls in time.
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