Quote:
Originally posted by Buff@Jun 15 2004, 11:59 AM
Inflation means expect high interest rates and low bond prices. Monetary policy has been horrific (printing new money out of control) -- inflation is high -- much higher than being reported. And before you cite the CPI or Core Index, let me remind you of a favorite government tactic:
From Murray Rothbard's Making Economic Sense
Quote:
The concoction of the "core rate" is a plausible-seeming example of a racketeering general principle: if you want to make inflation go away, simply take out the price categories that are rising most rapidly. Lop off enough prices, and you can make it seem that there is no inflation at all, ever. Find some excuse for taking out all the rising categories, call whatever is left the "base rate," and presto-changeo! inflation is gone forever.
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Buff,
I concur with what Serge has said. I am not hear to explain it, but to make money.
With that said, I do agree with your macro view of the eefects of fiat currency, inflation, et al.
However, this is something we have been dealing with for decades. Forecasting lower bond prices / higher rates based on this fundamental observation has not produced results in 20 years.
While I believe that ultimately you will be proven correct, timing it is another story.
Everything else is academic.