Quote:
Originally posted by Joe Sixpack@Mar 9 2004, 06:58 AM
Nah... I bet Bush gets re-elected.
Americans love a president who isn't afraid to spend money on war.
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I wouldn't bet either way in March.
1. There are still many possible world events to be played out.
2. There are still many internal questions for most people (state of the economy) that are ambiguous. Can Bush convince people that the recovery is HIS recovery? Can Kerry convince people that it is not enough of a recovery? So far, I think the Democrats are winning this marketing battle much like they were during the 1992 recovery and election. "It's the economy, stupid!"
3. It remains to be seen who will run a better campaign. Kerry is still putting his together. His choice of running mate could be either a positive or negative factor.
4. Kerry still has to face the trials of the election. Any dirt in his past someone is waiting to unleash at the proper moment?
5. Debates are still ahead (I bet only one. Bush will probably limit it and control the format for his participation - pre-determined questions?).
6. The conventions can be very influential. Some presidential candidates (like Clinton) gained more than 10 points at his convention. Sometimes these bounces can be maintained, sometimes not. The American voter is familar enough with Bush. The Democratic convention will be important. This is when people will really tune in to see what Kerry is all about.
Will they like what they hear?