I once managed an office of 30 Series 3 Futures/Options brokers; even with all the research available to me, my personal account was almost always on "life support".
For what little it's worth----check out my Feb, 2003 column at my
www.davecummings.com. I wrote that column in early Feb while the DJIA was around 8200, and felt like we'd see a rally by the end of this year. I cautioned then, as I continue to do now, that the price of crude oil was a key factor in inflation--it still is, in my opinion; and, with the way the FED has printed and distributed dollars, it's weaked the dollar considerably and has worried me that we could see inflation increases in 2004. Traditionally, the Fed fights inflation (defined as more money chasing the same goods and services, thus raising prices) by raising interest rates to dampen demand, thus making more goods and services available at cheaper prices. Higher rates often translates into more demand for dollar-denominated financial instruments, thus strengthening the dollar.
With crude still in the $30+ range, instead of the $25-28 that I think we need in order to sidestep energy inflationary pressures, and with the ready availability of cheap dollars and low interest rates to spur our economy and corporate earnings thus possibly giving the FED reason to raise interest rates and shut off the printing presses, I predict considerably better days for the dollar by this time next year. I'd buy the dollar index and/or short the 5 and 10-year notes and possibly the Euro. Interest rates and the PRICE of financial instruments work inversely--thus, higher rates usually means falling prices for notes/bonds.
But, what the heck do I know---keep in mind that I've been on the wrong side of trades most of my last 15 years of life; hell, I can even afford a comb and brush:-)))
In my opinion
